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Scenario
In: FREIGHTVISION - Sustainable European Freight Transport 2050, S. 135-157
SSRN
Scenario House
Scenario House, a gallery based installation, is comprised of a room constructed as a family room within a domestic space, a television with a looped video work and a sound componant played through a 5.1 sound system. The paper is intended to give my work context in relation to the processes leading up to its completion. This is achieved through clarification of the basis for the installation including previous socio-political discourses within my art practice. It then focuses on ways that the installation Scenario House is based on gun practice facilities such as the Valhalla Shooting Club. Further it gives an explanation of the actual production, in context with other art practices. It was found that distinctions between war as a game and the actual event are being lost within simulation revenge scenarios where the borders distinguishing gaming violence, television violence and revenge scenarios are increasingly indefinable. War can then be viewed a spectacle where the actual event is lost in a simplified simulation. Scenario House as installation allows audience immersion through sound spatialisation and physical devices. Sound is achieved by design of a 5.1 system played through a domestic home theatre system. The physical design incorporates the dual aspect of a gun shooting club and a lounge room. Further a film loop is shown on the television monitor as part of the domestic space it is non-narrative and semi-documentary in style. The film loop represents the mediation of the representation of fear where there is an exclusion of the other from the social body. When considering this installation it is important to note that politics and art need not be considered as representing two separate and permanent realities. Conversely there is a need to distance politicised art production from any direct political campaign work in so far as the notion of a campaign constitutes a fixed and inflexible space for intellectual and cultural production. Finally this paper expresses the need to maintain a critical openness ...
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Economic Scenario
In: The Rise of a New Superpower; SpringerBriefs in Economics, S. 3-22
World Affairs Online
AN ALARMING SCENARIO
In: Middle East international: MEI, Heft 351, S. 5
ISSN: 0047-7249
Scenario Development
In: Think Scenarios, Rethink Education; Schooling for Tomorrow, S. 69-92
SSRN
Objectively Defining Scenario Complexity: Towards Automated, Adaptive Scenario-Based Training
Effective Scenario-Based Training (SBT) is sequenced in an efficient trajectory from novice to mastery and is well-grounded in pedagogically sound instructional strategies and learning theory. Adaptive, automated SBT attempts to sequence scenarios according to the performance of the student and implement the sequence without human agency. The source of these scenarios may take the form of a matrix constructed by Instructional Systems Designers (ISD), software engineers or trainers. The domain being instructed may contain procedures or concepts that are easily differentiated thus allowing quick and accurate determination of difficulty. In this instance, the sequencing of the SBT is relatively simple. However, in complex, domain-integrated instructional environments accurate and efficient sequencing may be extremely difficult as ISD, software engineers and trainers, without an objective means to calculate a scenario's complexity must rely on subjectivity. In the Military, where time, fiscal and manpower constraints may lead to ineffective, inefficient and, perhaps, negative training SBT is a growing alternative to live training due to the significant cost avoidance demonstrated by such systems as the United States Marine Corps' (USMC) Abrams Main Battle Tank (M1A1) Advanced Gunnery Training System (AGTS). Even as the practice of simulation training grows, leadership such as the Government Accountability Office asserts that little has been done to demonstrate simulator impact on trainee proficiency. The M1A1 AGTS instructional sub system, the Improved Crew Training Program (ICTP), employs an automated matrix intended to increase Tank Commander (TC) and Gunner (GNR) team proficiency. This matrix is intended to guide the team along a trajectory of ever-increasing scenario difficulty. However, as designed, the sequencing of the matrix is based on subjective evaluation of difficulty, not on empirical or objective calculations of complexity. Without effective, automated SBT that adapts to the performance of the trainee, gaps in combat readiness and fiscal responsibility could grow large.In 2010, the author developed an algorithm intended to computationally define scenario complexity (Dunne, Schatz, Fiore, Martin (&) Nicholson, 2010) and conducted a proof of concept study to determine the algorithm's effectiveness (Dunne, Schatz, Fiore, Nicholson (&) Fowlkes, 2010). Based on results of that study, and follow-on analysis, revisions were made to that Scenario Complexity (SC) algorithm. The purpose of this research was to examine the efficacy of the revised SC algorithm to enable Educators and Trainers, ISDs, and software engineers to objectively and computationally define SC. The research process included a period of instruction for Subject Matter Experts (SME) to receive instruction on how to identify the base variables that comprise SC. Using this knowledge SMEs then determined the values of the scenarios base variables. Once calculated, these values were ranked and compared to the ICTP matrix sequence.Results indicate that the SMEs were very consistent in their ratings of the items across scenario base variables. Due to the highly proceduralized process underlying advanced gunnery skills, this high degree of agreement was expected. However, the significant lack of correlation to the matrix sequencing is alarming and while a recent study has shown the AGTS to increase TC and GNR team proficiency (PM TRASYS, 2014a), this research's findings suggests that redesign of the ICTP matrix is in order. ; 2014-12-01 ; Ph.D. ; Education and Human Performance, Dean's Office EDUC ; Doctoral ; This record was generated from author submitted information.
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Military Scenario Development
In: Vojenské rozhledy: vojenskoteoretický časopis = Czech military review, Band 26, Heft 5, S. 33-40
ISSN: 2336-2995
The global security environment brings forward different and surprising challenges for the armed forces, which require a good training and preparation. One way of sorting out the endeavour is using scenarios, the concept used extensively in the military field, the military field being the initiator of this concept. Military scenario development is the subject of this article, which is going to bring some essential characteristics and propose a working option for elaborating a scenario. The final aim is to help military planners have a good working procedure when developing a scenario in order to create a document updated with warfare evolution and operational planning process ready to respond to all risks and threats. The scenario is a way used by military structures at all levels of military art (strategical, operational and tactical) to get in contact with a probable unknown situation, to assimilate it and to sort it out. The article focuses on the scenario development process and proposes stages and activities that should be followed by a joint operational group when tasked with preparing a scenario.
Nuclear war: a scenario
There is only one scenario other than an asteroid strike that could end the world as we know it in a matter of hours: nuclear war. And one of the triggers for that war would be a nuclear missile inbound toward the United States. Every generation, a journalist has looked deep into the heart of the nuclear military establishment: the technologies, the safeguards, the plans, and the risks. These investigations are vital to how we understand the world we really live in - where one nuclear missile will beget one in return, and where the choreography of the world's end requires massive decisions made on seconds' notice with information that is only as good as the intelligence we have Pulitzer Prize finalist Annie Jacobsen's Nuclear War: A Scenario explores this ticking-clock scenario, based on dozens of exclusive new interviews with military and civilian experts who have built the weapons, have been privy to the response plans, and have been responsible for those decisions should they have needed to be made. Nuclear War: A Scenario examines the handful of minutes after a nuclear missile launch. It is essential reading, and unlike any other book in its depth and urgency.
World Affairs Online