Suchergebnisse

Der Beitrag analysiert die Entwicklung der Außenwirtschaft Guinea-Bissaus 1985: Exporte, Importe, Terms of Trade, Leistungsbilanz, Kapitalströme, Auslandsverschuldung, Wechselkurs des Peso Guineense. Er prognostiziert, daß die außenwirtschaftlichen Ungleichgewichte 1986 größer sein werden als 1985. (DÜI-Kör)

Em vista do importante papel da taxa de cambio nas transacoes comerciais de um pais, a busca dos fatores que a determinam tem atraido intensa investigacao nas pesquisas economicas. Duas formulacoes teoricas, basicas, para a determinacao da taxa de cambio sao, respectivamente, a do modelo monetario e a do modelo de equilibrio de portfolio. Neste estudo discute-se apenas o modelo monetario, que e aplicado aqui a dados mensais do Brasil no periodo de janeiro de 1980 ate junho de 1994, usando-se a tecnica de co-integracao. (Pesqui Planej Econ/DÜI)

Indicators for Brazil's real exchange rate are calculated using different definitions and focusing on what happened to such indices during the Cruzado Plan. The real effective exchange rate shows little appreciation in 1986 although the Cruzado/Dollar rate did appreciate. The result is troubling in the light of a 25% decrease in Brazil's trade surplus in 1986. The paper looks at the suggestion of a dual exchange rate regime for Brazil and concludes that such a system is likely to bring more instability to the economy

The balance-of-payment crisis literature can offer the basis to understand the current economic turmoil in Brazil. According to the author's calculations, the real exchange rate requires a 15% to 20% devaluation so as to assure that the intertemporal balance-of-payments constraint is not violated. Such appreciated currency imposes a heavy burden on monetary policy: Covered interest parity implies high real domestic interest rates in order to finance the current account. Yet the existence of a large budget deficit imposes objective limits on the use of interest rates as a means to defend the currency. (Rev Econ Polit/DÜI)

This work estimates the import substitution process in Brazilian industrial sectors in a recent period and evaluates whether it is occurring naturally or is in part induced by some kind of external commercial policy. An index to measure import substitution was calculated for forty nine sectors of industry. A regression analysis with this index against effective tariffs and real effective exchange rate, during the period 1995-2000, shows that these variables (effective tariffs and real effective exchange rates) did affect the substitution index. From 1999 on, the influence of the exchange rate over the import substitution index was greater than the influence of the effective tariff, suggesting that the process of import substitution post the Brazilian currency depreciation occurred in 1999 contains elements that characterizes it as a "natural" process. (Rev Econ Polit/DÜI)

Having just completed its second consecutive "lost decade", the Venezuelan case confirms that there are no short cuts to sound political economic management in the era of high capital mobility and securitized capital flows. The maintenance of a muddling-through exchange rate strategy has triumphed, at least for the time being, and enabled an elite executive-level coalition to prevail in pursuing a less than optimal macroeconomic policy. The author argues that Venezuela has avoided a full-blown Mexican or Brazilian-style devaluation by virtue of the Central Bank's ability to effectively manage the exchange rate. (Rev Econ Pol/DÜI)

The objective of this essay is to analyze the effects of the minimal nominal wage, a monetary aggregate and the exchange rate on the price level using the Johansen procedure for co-integration. The empirical evidence indicates the existence of a long term relationship among those variables and the price level that can be interpreted as a price equation. The econometric model allows establishing the specific weights of each of these variables. (Rev Econ Polit/DÜI)

Este trabalho examina os efeitos de curto e longo prazos das variacoes na taxa de cambio efetiva real, nos termos de troca, na renda domestica e na renda externa sobre o saldo da balanca comercial de produtos agricolas e agroindustriais do Brasil no periodo 1961/95. Utilizando as analises de co-integracao e mecanismos de correcao de erros, constatou-se que, no curto prazo, as variaveis mais importantes foram, em ordem decrescente de importancia, a renda domestica, a renda externa, os termos de troca e a taxa de cambio. No longo prazo, a taxa de cambio foi a principal variavel determinante do saldo comercial. (Pesqui Planej Econ/DÜI)

The effects of the capital account liberalization on the fiscal policy: an evaluation of the recent Brazilian case. In recent years there has been some agreement that capital account liberalization have provided restriction on economic policies. This paper provides some evidence for Brazil. It finds evidence that capital account liberalization provided limits to fiscal policy in Brazil and its effects can depend on exchange rate policy. (Rev Econ Polit/GIGA)

Changes in the international financial markets implied new conditions for the financing of Latin American foreign debt. The dollarization of the economies acquired new importance, intensely affecting the monetary sovereignty of some countries. As a result, new economic policies were instituted in Argentina and Brazil aimed at reducing inflation by imposing a price freeze and a general de-indexation of the economy. The author takes into account the external context as well as both the economic structures and the accumulation of capital, as he analyzes the limitations of the measures used to slowdown the long-term dollarization and the main features of the Austral and Cruzado Plans

Este trabalho tem por objetivo identificar alguns dos determinantes de longo prazo da taxa de cambio real brasileira para o periodo 1947/95. O modelo teorico sugere que as variaveis relevantes sao a taxa de cambio real, a divida externa e as exportacoes liquidas. O modelo empirico, utilizando essas variaveis, mostra que os dados brasileiros nao rejeitam a existencia de uma relacao de cointegracao entre as tres variaveis, constituindo-se assim em contrapartida empirica das condicoes de longo prazo do modelo teorico. Finalmente, sao impostas restricoes para identificar choques que poderiam ser interpretados como as variaveis exogenas nao-observaveis do modelo teorico. (Pesqui Planej Econ/DÜI)