Objective: Bluetongue (BT) and epizootic haemorrhagic disease (EHD) are arthropod-borne diseases of wild and domestic ruminants caused respectively by viruses belonging to the species Bluetongue virus (BTV) and Epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) within the genus Orbivirus of the Reoviridae. The viruses are transmitted between ruminants by biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). BTV went undetected in Reunion Island between its first documented emergence in 1979 and two other serious outbreaks with both BTV-3/ EHDV-6 in 2003, and both BTV-2/EHDV-6 in 2009. In these outbreaks, infected animals developed symptoms including hyperthermia, anorexia, congestion, prostration and nasal discharge. In order to get an overview of the circulation of BT/EHD in Reunion island, an assessment of the prevalence in ruminants native to Reunion Island by a cross-sectional study was undertaken in2011on 67 farms, including a total of 276 cattle, 142 sheep and 71 goats with a total of 489 ruminant samples. Data concerning farm characteristics, type of production, and number of animals were collected through farmer questionnaires for an evaluation of the associated risk factors. In addition, investigation of clinical cases based on the observation of clinical signs was also performed in order to get BTV/EHDV isolates with the aim to track the origins of the circulating strains. Methods: Risk factors analysis Data concerning farm characteristics, type of production, number of animals, closeness to another farm and sugar cane fields, presence of organic and other waste on the farm, exposure to wind, distance to a permanent water point, type of animal housing, presence of ticks on animals, use of treatment against ectoparasites and insects, animal's contacts with other animals or humans, grazing practice, spreading of manure on pastures, presence of Tenrece caudatus, rodent control, number of abortions in the herd in the last 12 months, purchasing behaviour, quarantine of newly purchased animals, other biosecurity factors like hygienic precautions taken by the staff or other people entering the farm (truck driver, vets and other visitors) were taken from a questionnaire which was filled in during an interview with the farmers. This questionnaire was pre-tested on five farms in a preliminary study. The final questionnaire comprised 40 questions of which 75% were closed-ended. Serological assays Specific anti-BTV antibodies were tested in serum samples with a group-specific competitive ELISA based on the VP7 protein using a commercial kit (LSIVetTM Ruminant BT Advanced II- Serum, Life technologies, France). Specific anti-EHDV antibodies were tested using a blocking commercial kit (LSIVetTM Ruminant EHDV-Serum ELISA kit, Life technologies, France). A Sunrise ELISA reader was used for reading at 450 nm (Tecan, France). Optical density values were converted to percentage inhibition (PI). According to the cut-off value of the test, test samples with PI values > 40% for BT and > 60% for EHD were considered as positive. BTV/EHDV genome detection For the BTV group specific real-time RT-PCR, 6 μl of denatured double-stranded RNA prepared with the EZ1 robot and EZ1® Virus Mini Kit v2.0 (Qiagen, France) were reverse transcribed (RT) and amplified using the onestep QuantiTect Probe RT-PCRkit (Qiagen, France) based on segment 1 developed by Toussaint et al. 2007. For the EHDV group specific real-time RT-PCR, 5 μl of denatured double-stranded RNA were reverse transcribed (RT) and amplified using the commercial TaqVetTM EHDV (Life technologies, France).The subgroup-specific EHDV RTPCR based on segment 2 was performed according to Sailleau et al., 2012.Embryonated chicken eggs (ECE) were each inoculated as previously described in Sailleau et al., 2012 Sequence analysis, alignment and phylogenetic analysis To identify the genetic relatedness of the detected virus, phylogenetic analyses were performed with published EHDV sequences. Sixteen full-length VP2 gene sequences were cleaned by hand from the results of several BLAST nucleotide searches as well as direct references from available up-to-date literature and then aligned using the ClustalW translation alignment tool in MEGA (Ver. 5.05). Phylogenetic analysis was performed using the neighbour-joining method using distance measures generated by the p-distance algorithm running 1, 000 iterations with Geneious® Pro. Statistics A Fisher exact test was used to compare differences in prevalence between diseases and species. All statistical procedures were performed using R.3.0.1. A value of P < 0.05 was considered significant. The prevalence rates were estimated as the overall mean and 95% confidence interval (CI). Results: The observed EHD prevalence rate in cattle was 63.77% (95% CI [57.99–69.55]), 5.63% (95% CI [0.03–10.99]) in goats, and 3.70% (95% CI [0.05–6.88]) in sheep, suggesting that EHD occurs more often in cattle than in goats and sheep. These findings were supported by a significant statistical difference in the EHD prevalence rate between species (Fisher exact test, P «2.2e-16). The observed BT prevalence rate in cattle was 79.62% (95% CI [74.77– 84.47]), 50.70% in goats (95% CI [39.08–62.33]) and 21.48% in sheep (95% CI [14.55–28.40]) with a significant difference in BT prevalence between species (Fisher exact test, P = 4.367e-10). Additionally, three suspected outbreaks occurred during the 2011 study period, one BTV/EHDV negative, one BTV specific and one combined BTV/EHDV outbreak. In total, 14 EHDV positive cases and 1 BTV/EHDV co - infection case were identified. Two further suspected outbreaks were confirmed to involve EHDV and BTV/EHDV. Isolations of EHDV were successful resulting in the identification of the Reunion -specific EHDV-1 serotype. Phylogenetic analyses of segment 2 showed that the Reunion isolate 6010 _2011 belongs to the group C (hypothesised in Anthony et al. 2009 together with EHDV-1 strains from Australia, 1995, Nigeria, 1967, French Guyana, 2011 and New Jersey, USA, 2011). In January 2014, once more suspected outbreaks occurred on cattle with observed clinical signs such as hyperthermia, congestion and nasal discharge. Virus isolations were successful and led us to identify a new EHDV serotype for Reunion island, the EHDV-7 serotype. Conclusion: Our results confirm that the prevalence of both BT and EHD is high and that both are likely currently circulating. A high risk of BTV and EHDV infections was associated with the introduction of ruminants from neighbouring farms without quarantine, the presence of organic and other waste on the farm, and treatment against ectoparasites and insects. New circulating EHDV serotype 1 and serotype 7 of unknown origin were isolated in 2011 and 2014 respectively. The mechanisms involved in the introduction, maintenance, and perpetuation of both BTV and EHDV orbiviruses in Reunion Island need to be further investigated. How and when the EHDV serotypes were introduced onto the island are unknown, the most likely being the introduction of infected animals from eastern and southern Africa, Madagascar or Australia over a period of many years. The introduction of Malagasy breeds, which could be considered as orbivirus susceptible breeds many decades ago, is one possible hypothesis. Since 1976, importation of domestic ruminants from these countries has stopped. Until 2008, imports were only from mainland France. The maintenance of both viruses in the livestock population could also be due to the presence of reservoirs such as deer as was the case in many places including southern California between 1990 and 2007 (Roug et al., 2012). Pathogens can easily be shared between wildlife and domestic ruminants which has implications for both the animal production industry and wildlife health. Whether animal reservoirs such as Rusa deer Cervus timorensis rusa imported from Mauritius Island and now present in Reunion Island play a role in EHDV epidemiology need to be investigated. The same species of Rusa deer was introduced on the island of Mauritius in 1639 and serological evidence of both EHDV and BTV circulation is documented. Since 1992, in accordance with European Union regulations, importation of live deer from Mauritius to Reunion Island is forbidden. The intermittent detection of certain serotypes and the occasional appearance of new serotypes suggest that, in the past, regular but separate introductions of BTV/EHDV may have also taken place from Madagascar, and from Southeast Asia including Mauritius via windborne Culicoides. Although it exists, the observed herd immunity in Reunion Island is not high enough to prevent the maintenance of an enzootic cycle, which could also be related to the abundance and activity of Culicoides throughout the year. The findings reported here provide additional hypotheses regarding the ecological characteristics of bluetongue and epizootic haemorrhagic disease and other vector -borne livestock diseases. Sentinel surveillance programmes are a useful way of documenting regionalization zones for diseases, which can be of great importance when securing livestock international markets.
The subject of study of this doctoral thesis is addressing to the nexus configuration between asylum and intern displacement migratory processes and the identifiable response in control and management migratory and border-crossing policies which state a "Border-crossing Order of things ". Additionally, analyzing the potential challenge/response to that identifiable order in "Transborder Citizenship Emerging Practices" by migrants, displaced people and refugees. A comparative study is carried out about/in the frontiers Spain-Morocco (European Union) and Colombia-Venezuela (Andean Community of Nations) in the period 1990-2010. In Chapter One, it is intended to made clear the coordinates about the What and How of the research as well as the results. This is done by three subsections: the literature review and the approach to the problem; research questions, hypothesis and research objectives; research methodology. The methodological design used poses a combination between qualitative and comparative research, which allow us to analyze and compare observations and descriptions (exploratory-descriptive research) and also to analyze and compare the addresses and representations (analytical-interpretive research). Generally, the type of comparison followed was the one proposed by Skocpol and Somers called " Contrast of Contexts " which is essential for the interpretive comparative variant in social sciences, different to the type of comparison by " hypothesis control ". On the other hand, we followed Charles Ragin's (1987) suggestions about the "Case-oriented Research " and about the complex problems of the " Conjunctural Causality ", in other words, causal models that vary " according to the context ". In Chapter Two, Global Order of Control and Management of Migrations and Borders. The emergence from the Migration-Displacement-Asylum nexus, the contextualization is made and the characteristics for this order are shown; in order to highlight transformation of the international migration tendencies to forced migrations and alongside with it, the emergence of the Migration-Displacement-Asylum nexus. The global order of control and migrations management as a border regime responds to a policy spin and to the policies that transform the frontiers into a mechanism for the migration control (Faist, 2003); just as shown in the detailed description of the global and regional control agendas, management and migration and border-crossing cooperation; migration and border-crossing policies, and the protection and asylum policies for refugees, asylum seeker and migrants in the frontiers Spain-Morocco and Colombia-Venezuela. In Chapter Three, emerging typologies related to the migration-displacement-asylum nexus that allowed us to make the analysis and the comparison in the specific border-crossing zones Spain-Morocco and Colombia-Venezuela; which have a big potential of being used in other case studies. These typologies correspond to: the closely related causes of forced and voluntary migration in their home countries; the diverse motivations of several migrants, displaced and asylum seekers; motivation changes during migration for many migrants, displaced and asylum seekers; motivation changes during migration for many migrants, displaced people and asylum seekers; the close relation between refugees and economic migrants in some transit countries in the Spain-Morocco frontier and the close relationship between refugees and economic migrants on the way through Colombian regions; the rising similarities in the migration process for both " forced " and " voluntary " migrants; refugees and migrant workers can have similar experiences in the host countries; the experience of return, repatriation or deportation can be similar. We have built an analytical-comparative proposal that includes theoretical contributions from anthropology and politics about frontiers and migrations, entering into conversation with political theories about frontiers, migrations and citizenship. Our proposal consists in analyzing control and migration/border-crossing management politics and the " transborder citizenship emerging practices " through two analytic triads " ( IBO-1 e IBO-2 ) ", known in critical literature about frontiers as " IBO ( IFO in spanish ) triad: Identities, Borders, Orders " ( Kearney, 1995; Albert, Jacobson and Lapid, 2001; Van Houtuum and Van Naerssen, 2001 ). The analytic and comparative effort allowed to integrate the two triads in three related pairs ( I-1 and I-2 ), ( B-1 and B-2 ), ( O-1 and O-2 ) between the state-built identities and their migration policies ( I-1 ) and the ways of identification-disidentification that the migrants-displaced-asylum seekers and refugees claim and negotiate ( I-2 ). Between the states border-crossing control ( B-1 ) and the unauthorized border crossing of the migrants-displaced-asylum seekers ( B-2 ). Between the states' power and the politics orders ( O-1) and the ways of political subjectivation from the migrants-displaced-asylum seekers and refugees (O-2 ). The IBO-1 triad corresponds to the border-crossing order of things and the IBO-2 triad to the potential challenge to that order via transborder citizenship emerging practices. In Chapters Four and Five, the previous analytical-comparative framework was applied in the Spain-Morocco and Colombia-Venezuela borders. In each case, the control and management migratory and border-crossing policies were analyzed taking into account three main aspects: identities production and classification, specially the political and civic identities. This is selectivity (Filter function); the frontierization practices, not only control and regulation but also the border-permeability function (Filter function), who can or cannot enter (citizens and non-citizens production ), taking into account the role of the States as well as their regional, global and local registry. In this dimension we talk about the border-crossing order of things. On the other hand, also in each case, the practices from the migrant, displaced, refugees, asylum seeker citizenships in other border games through de-frontierization practices; it is about authorized and unauthorized border-crossing agents and they answer to the Border Crossing Control but previously, they have been qualified and some identities have been attributed such as "irregulars", "illegals", "undesirables" and so on, against that, they answer de facto, claiming-verifying that "Any human being is illegal"; this through active processes of disidentification and disclassification, they will be rejecting, also de facto, their imputation as non-citizens; and in this process, they act as if they were citizens, in an equality verification as human beings and as a subject of universal law (Ranciére, 1999). Summarizing, these are "transborder citizenship emerging practices " from these migrant subjects alongside with their regional, global and local registry. In this analysis dimension, we talk about the (potential) challenge to the border-crossing order of things. Chapter Six gathers the compared analysis about the Spain-Morocco and Colombia-Venezuela borders. In this doctoral thesis, defining two case study was from the beginning the search for a comparative analysis that allowed addressing every case itself to give account of its own dynamics and evolution. From the particularities of the migration-displacement-asylum nexus in each border-crossing zone, there was an advance in a comparison, not as a migratory flows problem itself, but in its political articulations related to migration/border-crossing control and management politics and the citizenship practices. Actors and their political interactions related to their position in the face of borders. Borders are the matters of dispute that reconfigures constantly the concept of politics and the political Chapter Seven about conclusions was oriented to answer the question "How migrants, displaced people and refugees are constituted as political actors and are allowed to appeal to their community members condition? As exposed in the conclusions, in their transborder migrants condition and the democratization assertion from the borders, the transborder citizenship emerging practices take shape. Finally, we present some limitations, possible contributions from the doctoral thesis and some proposals for the future research development. The importance of contributing with studies that overcome the methodological nationalism and the internal focus was posed; also contributing to the methodological, epistemological and conceptual change in the borders, migrations and citizenship studies and strengthening a new epistemic community; and contribution to the ongoing research program about the relation between identity, borders and political orders in border-crossing zones. This analytical-comparative proposal pretends to be one step to the formation of a method or a theory about the comparative anthropology in the borders and periphery and more specifically, as the presentation of the border-crossing order of things and its challenge hypothesis. Therefore, the same questions that we have posed in this doctoral thesis could be asked concerning different borders and demarcation and policies regimes to perform compared works about how some borders are built and the migration processes that pass through it. A short-term future researching development could be addressing the migration-displacement-asylum nexus with a comparative analysis of the borders between Colombia and Venezuela and, Ecuador and Panama in the post-peace agreement transition process.
PhD thesis in Risk management and societal safety ; What was the idea? Coordination is a vital element of crisis management (Turner, 1978; Minear et al., 1992; Schneider, 1995; Rasmussen, 1997; Strand, 2003; Boin et al., 2005; Kruke and Olsen, 2005; Keen, 2008). The coordination between civil and military actors is especially crucial and complicated if the crisis is characterized by political (military), economic, and social conflict, as displayed in Afghanistan. Civil and military actors have different organizational cultures, standard operating procedures, aims and priorities. Still, they are often forced to coordinate in order to perform their humanitarian, political and military tasks in joint efforts to assist the local populations in a complex emergency. To manage this coordination, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in North-Afghanistan operated under three concepts: the Comprehensive Approach (CA), Counterinsurgency (COIN), and the NATO civil-military coordination (CIMIC) doctrine. These three approaches, to some extent, overlapped, to some extent were contradictory, but most important; they were differently understood and implemented with various levels of success. ISAF, as a powerful military actor in Afghanistan, consists of many high qualified and capable soldiers at all levels. The question is whether it is possible for such an organization as ISAF to handle crisis management under the guidance of these coordination concepts and the broad mandates operational in Afghanistan? To enlighten this, the structures and processes in ISAF organization are studied in order to assess how these structures/ processes influenced the civil military coordination in the field. With the aim of contributing to the enhanced knowledge about civil military coordination, I put forth the following research question: - How do ISAF structures and processes influence civil military coordination in North Afghanistan? In the analysis I have applied theories of security and the new wars, complex emergencies and, in particular, organizational theories with a basis in bureaucracy-theory and new-institutional perspectives. The rationale behind this choice was that military organizations are normally viewed as representatives of rational bureaucratic organizations, having structures and processes that characterize rational organizations (Weber, 1971; Banfield, 1959; Lindblom, 1959). The new-institutional perspective is meant to be a tool to explain the shortcomings of rationally built organizations and the influence of the surrounding environment (Greenwood et al., 2008; Meyer and Rowan, 1977; DiMaggio and Powell, 1983). Further, the use of Turner (1976/1978) and Turner and Pigeon's (1997) theories of man-made disasters enlighten the crisis management perspective. What was done? To be able to understand and collect genuine data about ISAF's influence on civil military coordination, it was essential to get personal experiences from the field. After attending pre-deployment courses I was sent to North Afghanistan as a CIMIC officer, doing participant-observer research for a seven month fieldwork. Back home, the data was systematized and followed up the year after by a new field work in the same operation area, then in the role of a declared researcher, for enhanced data collection based on interviews and meetings. As a CIMIC officer I followed the ISAF "project factory" in North- Afghanistan. The "project factory" were local, regional or national ongoing projects characterized by military involvement and extensive civil military coordination, - through which I studied many parallel processes. I did not have the opportunity to follow any of these projects from planning to implementation and evaluation, as projects at this level often were ongoing for years, and my deployment represented seven months in line with the military rotation system. Consequently, to many ISAF officers including myself, these projects represented "a running train" in which one had to jump on and off on the way. Still, the processes in the six projects in which I participated became vital sources of information in my data collection. After getting a picture of ISAF structure and processes during my first fieldwork, I focused more on the understanding and interpretation of ISAF mandate and civil military concepts in the second follow up field-work. Civil and military personnel representing three levels were interviewed: ISAF Joint Command (IJC) in Kabul, the subordinated Regional Command North (RCN) in nearby Mazar-e Sharif and the RCN subordinated Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs), representing many countries, stationed in different provinces. Also document analysis, meetings, discussions and field conversations contributed to my data collection. What came out of it? By studying ISAF organization in North Afghanistan, influential aspects to civil military coordination became apparent. It is essential to acknowledge the importance of cultural awareness and understanding of the context in a so-called "out of area" operation such as the one ISAF conducted in Afghanistan. Moreover, the Western way of conflict management based on Western logic, rationality, expectations, and traditions might not be appropriate. One also needs to acknowledge the difference between civilian and military actors. As experienced in the studied projects military tend to be action-minded with a high sense of responsibility and control. This might result in narrower thinking in line with their own training and experience for accomplishing a mission with a specific, usually short timeline. Civilian actors, even though they are very varied, more often have a long term perspective and focus on the local structures and processes. Successful, sustainable projects presuppose local ownership, which mostly requires a long term perspective. Accordingly, when military actors are engaged in the civilian sphere as presupposed in the overall civil military coordination concepts applicable for ISAF, this requires a long term perspective, consistency, and clear lines of role performance and responsibility. This was not the case. ISAF displayed internal diversity in preparedness, priorities, and policy. The practice of ISAF civil-military coordination did not ensure local ownership of projects, as they were mostly ISAF planned and executed, within a strict timeline. An important source of ISAF coordination problems were the unclear civil military concepts of CA, COIN and CIMIC or Civil Affairs doctrine. The concepts were differently understood, prioritized, and interpreted in different NATO and non-NATO ISAF participating nations, as well as on the different ISAF organizational levels, being well known in upper headquarters and more or less unknown or ignored out in the field. Besides, this diversity of interpretation of the concepts also led to organizational inconsistency, hampering appropriate coordination with the local environment and other actors presupposed for an appropriate crisis management. The ISAF inconsistency gave a picture of an organization with many nuances which coordinating actors found difficult to read. Findings show how ISAF, an intended rational bureaucratic organization, was faced with diversity and inconsistency in organizational structures, as well as training, planning, and role performance. Accordingly, ISAF strove to keep the needed unity of effort that characterizes a functional military organization. Structural problems such as a very top heavy organization, different organized headquarters, and multiple reporting lines influenced and complicated civil military coordination processes in general, as well as in the planning and execution of projects. Military planning and decision-making processes were exigent, with no overall clear end-state1 or aim to measure the activity against and the multiple reporting lines complicating the information and communication processes. Besides, the vague and broad ISAF mandate gave plenty of room for varied interpretation and practice. Additionally, internal coordination were hampered by different national policies and trainings before mission, as well as the fact that ISAFparticipating nations had different national caveats that blocked the unity of effort as well as an efficient command and control structure. 1 End state is a military term used in this thesis, meaning the set of required conditions that defines achievement of the Commanders' objectives. Findings also indicate that theories like rational and new-institutional organization theories are applicable when analyzing the military structures, processes, and role performance, and how this affects civil military coordination. Nevertheless, the most important contribution of this thesis is empirical, composed as it is of a data collection that would have been very difficult to achieve without being on the inside of the organization. This research shows how important it is to make clear distinction between civilian and military responsibilities, in time and space, if and when military is involved in civilian projects. If military actors are engaged in civil military coordination tasks and projects they should not be a subject to the same logic of action as the kinetic units. Further, if military is supposed to keep security, a more strict and joint military command and control system, as well as a more specific defined concept of action and tasks is necessary.
No había demasiado margen para sorpresas, y finalmente se dio lo que todo el mundo esperaba: la ex presidente Michelle Bachelet (centroizquierda) y la ex ministra Evelyn Matthei (derecha) serán las dos alternativas por las que los chilenos deberán optar en la segunda vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales.Teniendo en cuenta las últimas encuestas, ambas candidatas lo hicieron mejor de lo esperado (un 47% y un 25% respectivamente), lo que eliminó de golpe cualquier potencial sorpresa de los candidatos "independientes" a las dos grandes coaliciones, como el izquierdista Marco Enríquez-Ominami (la gran revelación de las pasadas elecciones) y el inclasificable Franco Parisi, completo outsider de la política que siquiera se presentó a través de un partido político.Evidentemente, la gran favorita para ganar el balotaje es Bachelet. La distancia que la separa de Matthei es enorme (su victoria es tan apabullante que se impone en las quince regiones del país) y es probable que arrastre los votos de todos los candidatos menores con la excepción de los de Parisi.Bachelet ha presentado su candidatura a través de una nueva coalición de partidos llamada Nueva Mayoría, que une la tradicional Concertación de socialistas y democristianos con varios partidos menores, incluido el comunista, que, encantado, se subió al probable caballo ganador, algo muy conveniente dada su performance en las elecciones legislativas.Y es que desde el momento que Bachelet proclama su candidatura, pocos se atrevieron a pensar otro escenario que no fuera el de una victoria clara. Recordemos que su primera presidencia es percibida como bastante exitosa (a pesar de algunos pequeños obstáculos como el escándalo del sistema de transporte de Santiago) y que la misma terminaría con una aprobación de más del 80%, cifra para nada despreciable en una democracia liberal latinoamericana.Mientras Bachelet se despedía en marzo del 2010 con una popularidad estratosférica, el actual Presidente Sebastián Piñera sigue luchando con unos niveles de aprobación de su gobierno bastante bajos. Poco le sirvió el espectacular rescate de los mineros atrapados (donde se comportó como el conductor de un reality show) y su presidencia ha sido salpicada por una conflictividad social creciente. Uno de los ejemplos más claros fue el de las manifestaciones estudiantiles en pos de una educación terciaria gratuita o por lo menos accesible para las clases bajas, donde se llegaron a ver marchas inéditamente multitudinarias en contra del gobierno. Las huelgas y movilizaciones también se dieron en otros conflictos como la aprobación del proyecto HidroAysén (una serie de represas hidroeléctricas en el sur del país), la crisis magallánica derivada del aumento en el precio del gas y los eternos reclamos de la nación mapuche. Todos estos hechos tuvieron su apogeo en el 2011, "annus horribilis" para Piñera y del cual no ha sabido recuperarse, cosa que contrasta con las exitosas gestiones de Bachelet y Ricardo Lagos.La pobre performance de Piñera sin duda tendrá algo que ver con el pésimo resultado electoral de la "Alianza" de RN (Renovación Nacional, centroderecha) y la UDI (Unión Demócrata Independiente, derecha populista), aunque probablemente no sea la principal variable a tener en cuenta.Las elecciones primarias de la coalición dieron en su momento una victoria ajustadísima del ex ministro de Economía, Pablo Longueira (UDI) por sobre el ex ministro de Defensa, Andrés Allamand (RN). Longueira, no obstante, pronto renunciaría a ser el candidato de la derecha por sufrir de un grave estado de depresión. A toda prisa tuvo la UDI que buscar otro candidato y, finalmente, se decantaron por Matthei, entonces ministra de Trabajo.Hija de un militar y jerarca pinochetista, Matthei representa la derecha pura y dura, y aún yace el recuerdo de su histriónica defensa de Pinochet cuando la detención del dictador en Londres, dirigiendo a los gritos manifestaciones en las embajadas del Reino Unido y España y abogando por un boicot económico contra dichos países. "Nunca defendí a Pinochet, sino a la soberanía nacional" se justificó en campaña, lo que contradicen en YouTube los noticieros de aquellos días.Matthei y Piñera son viejos conocidos y protagonistas del delirante escándalo llamado Piñeragate. El año era 1992 y ambos eran jóvenes líderes de RN con ansias de dirigir la Alianza y, por lo tanto, ser presidenciables a futuro. Es entonces cuando se muestra al público una grabación secreta de la conversación de Piñera con su amigo Pedro Pablo Díaz (quien guardaba contactos con la prensa)sobre cómo destruir políticamente a Matthei, poniendo en evidencia (en un eventual debate o entrevista) su indecisión en cuanto a la ley de divorcio, si profesaba el catolicismo a pleno y otras inquietudes ancestrales muy propias a la derecha chilena; en palabras del propio Piñera:"(Hay que) dejarla como una cabrita chica, cierto, despistada, que está dando palos de ciego, sin ninguna solidez".El despropósito llegaría a su clímax cuando el público se enterara que la propia Matthei conocía la grabación de antemano y que la habría utilizado para victimizarse. El resultado: la renuncia de Matthei a RN, su huida a la UDI y la postergación por más de dos décadas de la llegada de Piñera a la Moneda.El "amor" entre Matthei y sus ex compañeros de partido alcanzaría otro punto álgido en 1995, cuando la entonces legisladora moviera sus hilos para involucrar al Presidente de RN (y viejo enemigo) Andrés Allamand en el escándalo de acusaciones por el supuesto consumo de drogas por parte de congresistas.La elección de la dirigente conservadora fue, por lo tanto, un poco extraña; y de hecho provocó que algunos militantes de RN solicitaran libertad de acción con tal de apoyar a otros candidatos, en particular a Franco Parisi.Como dijimos previamente, Parisi es un completo outsider en la política, con un pasado dedicado casi exclusivamente al mundo académico, más exactamente en el plano de la economía. Su nombre se haría más conocido siendo conductor de un programa de televisión de divulgación de temas económicos. A falta de una definición ideológica concreta (¿Derecha o izquierda?), Parisi se enmarcó como un candidato pragmático cuyo principal objetivo sería el de renovar la clase política (que, si bien no es un planteamiento muy original, no deja de ser una mala propuesta, dado que el electorado chileno siempre ve los mismos nombres una y otra vez).El otro candidato independiente a tener en cuenta era Marco Enríquez-Ominami, joven diputado quien renunciara en el 2009 al Partido Socialista con tal de presentar una alternativa "verdaderamente" izquierdista a la candidatura por la Concertación de Eduardo Frei.En un inédito escenario con nueve candidaturas, tanto Parisi como Enríquez-Ominami eran los únicos con el respaldo necesario como para dar una sorpresa. No obstante, ambas candidaturas terminaron decepcionando, y lograron sólo un 10% y un 11% respectivamente. Teniendo en cuenta que en el 2009 los sufragios para Enríquez-Ominami constituyeron un 20%, podría decirse que el voto anti-establishment se ha quedado estancado.Finalmente, si sumamos las otras cinco candidaturas presentadas (todas de centroizquierda o izquierda), las mismas no superan en su conjunto el 8% de los votos.Una vez conocidos los resultados, Evelyn Matthei se dirigió a sus seguidores con estas palabras: "Estamos iniciando la segunda vuelta, sí se puede". En realidad es muy improbable que "se pueda", ya que parece bastante inverosímil que en la segunda vuelta la candidata de la Alianza pueda captar nuevos votos. La derecha chilena en general, y la UDI en particular, deberían hacer una autocrítica en cuanto a la imposición de Matthei como candidata, lo que ha provocado un notorio suicidio electoral. Con una personalidad antipática y autoritaria (muy contraria a Piñera y Lavín en este sentido), además de contar con varios enemigos dentro de la Alianza, estaba claro que Matthei sólo podía apelar al voto "duro" de la UDI, al sector más conservador de RN y poco más. La única explicación sensata a su selección podría ser que la derecha ya diera la guerra por perdida apenas la popularísima Bachelet confirmara ser la candidata de la centroizquierda. Como dijimos antes, la pobre gestión de Piñera tampoco ha sido de gran ayuda.Por lo tanto, podemos decir que, salvo catástrofe, Bachelet se impondrá cómodamente en el balotaje. Su segunda presidencia no supondrá grandes cambios, y sorprende la tibieza de muchas de las propuestas del programa de gobierno, que en otros países serían calificadas de centristas. Chile seguirá, entonces, por el camino que ha recorrido desde el retorno a la democracia: el de la moderación, el del cambio paulatino sin sobresaltos y el de la predominancia de las políticas de Estado por sobre las de los gobiernos. Sobre el autorEstudiante de Estudios InternacionalesUniversidad ORT-Uruguay
La literatura actual deja en evidencia que hablar sobre el tema de la seguridad es complejo y no podemos referirnos a ella de manera aislada, situación que paulatinamente ha originado la necesidad de abordar el tema desde una óptica interdisciplinaria, es decir: alejada de planteamientos cuadrados o exclusivistas. La seguridad se ha convertido en nuestros días en un elemento crucial en la toma de decisiones concernientes al emplazamiento de nuevos ámbitos residenciales en determinadas ciudades, situación que se agudiza en la medida en que la conceptualización de la tranquilidad social gira en torno a la seguridad de las personas, la educación y la propiedad; constituyendo, indiscutiblemente, la seguridad un factor determinante en la formación del nuevo espacio urbano y en su carácter socialmente segregado. En América Latina, en 1995, según Latinobarómetro 2009, el 80% de los ciudadanos exteriorizaban un sentimiento de incremento de la actividad delictiva, percepción que en el 2001 aumentó un 15%; es decir, el 95% de los ciudadanos latinoamericanos consideraban que la delincuencia había aumentado. Ciertamente, el tema de la seguridad es un fenómeno social bastante complejo y, en muchas ocasiones, se ve envuelto en las faldas de un exhaustivo afán punitivo; situación que no debe sorprender ni es particularmente novedosa, pues, en muchos casos, éste es el reflejo de la impotencia de abordar adecuadamente el problema. El miedo a ser víctima del delito es un ejemplo claro de la complejidad referenciada, donde la literatura pone de manifiesto que las personas que se sienten más inseguras no son necesariamente las que se encuentran más próximas a la amenaza, sino que depende del debilitamiento del contexto social donde se desenvuelven y al grado de posicionamiento dentro de este entorno2. De este modo, a través del tiempo, la inseguridad ha fortalecido su proyección llegando a convertirse, para muchos expertos, en el espejo de la delincuencia, situación que puede ser atribuida básicamente a la existencia de una inadecuada gestión en materia de seguridad. Lo anterior evidencia un deterioro profundo de los estamentos del Estado llamados a brindar la tranquilidad y estabilidad que la sociedad reclama, debilitamiento de la oferta de seguridad que erosiona principalmente la imagen de los Cuerpos Nacionales de Policía, por ser éstos la principal oferta que promociona el Estado como herramienta para el control y disminución de la fluctuación delictual3. De igual forma, este deterioro ha promovido la aparición de un nuevo engranaje alterno a las instituciones tradicionales encargadas de garantizar la seguridad de los habitantes: la seguridad privada. En esta línea, en los últimos años se puede percibir cierta incapacidad del Estado para garantizar, de manera adecuada, la seguridad de sus ciudadanos. Falta de capacidad que se ha traducido en el deseo de querer delegar cierto porcentaje de responsabilidad garantista (en materia de seguridad) en el colectivo ciudadano. Lo anterior es palpable a través del vertiginoso incremento que ha presentado la industria de la seguridad privada y el nacimiento del interés estatal por lograr un mayor acercamiento policía-comunidad y justicia-comunidad. Según Curbet (2006), la oferta pública no está cumpliendo con las expectativas trazadas y, por el contrario, presenta un retroceso debido a dos principales factores: 1) las restricciones presupuestarias, que restringen la necesidad y oportunidad de contar con mayor capacitación y mejor equipo; y 2) la transferencia de diferentes actividades, que se ha considerado que deben ser funciones de los cuerpos policiales. Ciertamente, añade Curbet, la policía para este inicio de milenio ha presentado distintas limitaciones que reducen sustancialmente la probabilidad de adaptarse a las demandas actuales de 3 seguridad, entre las cuales cita: 1) las dificultades para conocer el volumen real de los delitos4; 2) el método propio del trabajo policial5; y 3) la ausencia de estructuras organizativas (grupos interdisciplinarios) que analicen empíricamente la actividad criminal. Lo cierto es que el Estado debe procurar orientar sus esfuerzos y conocimientos hacia la obtención de una seguridad sostenible, entendida ésta como el desarrollo de verdaderas políticas que, por un lado, se enfoquen en el plano local, atendiendo las necesidades y aplicando, de manera regulada, los mecanismos coercitivos y disuasorios para el control de la violencia; y que, por otro lado, faciliten la impostergable integración de todos los actores sociales, en forma globalizada, que propugnen un modelo de trabajo dirigido a contrarrestar, de manera efectiva, los riesgos que pueden materializarle y desestabilizar la cohesión social. Lo anterior, en palabras de Búvinic (2009), se traduce en la necesidad, hoy más que nunca, de una cultura de seguridad que descanse sobre la existencia de una verdadera cohesión, de igualdad, de diálogo, de una cultura y comunicación en democracias sanas; pues, simple y llanamente, las políticas de seguridad actuales no pueden pensarse de manera unilateral y, aún menos, apartadas de las políticas de la vida (educación, salud, vivienda y alimentación, entre otras). Una cultura de seguridad actual debe fundamentarse en la existencia del diseño de un modelo preventivo que desplace al ortodoxo planteamiento reactivo, así como fortalecer las actuales políticas públicas para que éstas enfoquen su atención en la implementación de modelos preventivos caracterizados por un enfoque interdisciplinar. Efectivamente, para lograr el desarrollo de una cultura de seguridad es necesario que todos los agentes sociales, no solamente los cuerpos uniformados, se involucren desde sus respectivas áreas de trabajo. La calidad de vida de nuestras sociedades se ve altamente influenciada por la existencia o no de seguridad, pues, sin ésta sería verdaderamente difícil disfrutar de los demás elementos de bienestar de los que nos provee nuestra sociedad (Majluf, 2009). No obstante, el abordaje de la seguridad, como se ha dicho en líneas anteriores, es un tema sumamente complejo y con múltiples matices. Al respecto, el Informe de Desarrollo Humano para América Central (en lo sucesivo IDHAC, 2009-2010) desvela aspectos sumamente interesantes. Así, por ejemplo, el documento señala que la (in)seguridad como tal no existe, sino que existen (in)seguridades, es decir, grados específicos de (in)seguridades de distintos individuos frente a distintos riesgos. Esto origina un problema de agregación, en la medida que es necesario identificar modalidades de (in)seguridad lo suficientemente comunes, típicas o relevantes como para justificar su análisis o su tratamiento a partir de políticas especiales. Otro aspecto marcadamente notable en nuestra sociedad es la existencia de distintos tipos de (in)seguridades objetivas o (in)seguridades subjetivas, es decir, todas las personas no perciben con la misma intensidad la existencia de estas (in)seguridades, que en muchas ocasiones estarán condicionadas por el lugar donde se vive, el sexo, la edad, el color de la piel o el nivel educativo (Arnold, 2001). Bien sea el caso de la (in)seguridad objetiva o de la (in)seguridad subjetiva, en algunas ocasiones los especialistas en la materia han decidido agregarle algún adjetivo que evidencie el tipo de amenaza al cual se hace referencia (seguridad industrial, seguridad ciudadana o seguridad social, por ejemplo), y en otros casos se agrega para distinguir la clase de unidad o sujeto expuesto a cada tipo de riesgo (seguridad personal, seguridad familiar o seguridad nacional, por mencionar algunas). En definitiva, el actual reto de la seguridad requiere de la aplicación de nuevos enfoques. Se necesita la incorporación de estructuras organizacionales que faciliten la creación de nuevas dinámicas que permitan la consecución de los objetivos institucionales. Es necesario que las organizaciones (por ejemplo, las policiales) garanticen la calidad del servicio brindado a los consumidores (la 5 población) a través del fortalecimiento de sus valores, su ética, su filosofía de trabajo, y procurando en todo momento lograr la mayor transparencia posible en cada una de sus actuaciones. Dicho de otra forma, las instituciones policiales deben ¿incorporar técnicas del mundo de la gestión y ciencias criminológicas para dirigir eficientemente su trabajo¿6, constituyendo la investigación científica y la profesionalización del recurso humano dos potentes herramientas al servicio de aquellas organizaciones de seguridad que pretenden optimizar su funcionamiento7. Finalmente, recapitulando, es posible afirmar que los planteamientos señalados en líneas superiores evidencian claramente la necesidad de reevaluar las políticas criminales diseñadas hasta el momento, así como buscar las alternativas dirigidas a potencializar las estrategias de seguridad de aquellas instituciones íntimamente ligadas a esta temática, principalmente la Policía Nacional. De este modo, la presente investigación pretende clarificar la percepción que tiene la población panameña sobre los niveles de inseguridad y el desempeño de la Policía Nacional de Panamá, información que, complementada con la evaluación de algunas de las políticas criminales desarrolladas hasta la fecha y el análisis de la estructura organizacional de la institución policial, posibilite la maquetación de alguna estructura orientada a mejorar, mediante la investigación empírica, el funcionamiento táctico-operativo de la Policía Nacional de Panamá.
1980lerin sonlan ve 1990ların ilk yıllarında adından söz edilen Dönüşümcü liderlik, askeri kökenlidir bir yönetim yaklaşımıdır (Heck & Hallinger, 1999; Bass, 1998). En genel anlamıyla Dönüşümcü liderlik, örgüt çalışanlarının örgütlerine adanmışlıkları ve hedeflerin gerçekleştirilmesi sürecine bağlılıkları olarak tanımlanmaktadır (Popper ve diğerleri, 2000). Bu yaklaşım beceri ve kapasite gelişimini zenginleştirme üzerine odaklanır ve kendi davranışlarını astlarının gereksinmeleri doğrultusunda değiştirirler (Leithwood ve Jantzi, 2006; Marks ve Printy, 2003; Northouse, 2001; Den Hartog ve diğerleri, 1999; Gronn, 1995; Evers ve Lakomski, 1996; Muenjohn ve Anderson, 2007). Bu yaklaşımda liderler, okul vizyonunu oluşturur ve hedefleri belirlerler (Leithwood ve Jantzi, 2000; Castanheira ve Costa, 2011; Leithwood, 1992), çalışanların bireysel motivasyonlarını artırırlar, yüksek performans beklentileri ve başarıya dayalı bir okul iklimi oluştururlar. Aynı zamanda liderler Dönüşümcü çalışanların karara katılımını artırırlar, astlarının beceri ve bilgilerini geliştirirler ve onlara bireysel destek sağlarlar (Silins ve diğerleri, 2002; Bennis ve Nanus, 1997). Hall ve diğerlerine (2008) göre Dönüşümcü liderlik yaklaşımı, yöneticilere sıra dışı liderler olma olanağı sağlar. Bu nedenle McFarlin ve Sweeney (1998), geleceğin başarılı yöneticilerinin Dönüşümcü liderler olarak yetiştirilmeleri gerektiğini vurgulamaktadırlar. Dönüşümcü liderliğin bazı özellikleri vardır. Birincisi, liderin kendi davranışları ve astlarının ona atfettiği davranışlar olarak tanımlanan idealleştirilmiş etki, ikincisi, liderin koç ya da mentor olarak her bir bireye özel birisiymiş ilgi göstermeye yönelik sürekli çabası anlamına genel bireysel ilgi, üçüncüsü, liderin yaratıcı ve yenilikçi olmaları yönünde astlarını güdülemesi anlamına gelen entellektüel uyarımdır. Dördüncü özellik, liderin astlarını ortak amaçlar doğrultusunda güdülemesi olarak bilinen esinlenmiş etkidir (Geijsel ve diğerleri, 2003; Nguni ve diğerleri, 2006; Yu ve diğerleri, 2002; Geijsel ve diğerleri, 2003; Leithwood ve Jantzi, 2005; Leithwood ve diğerleri, 2002; Rafferty ve Griffin, 2004). Sonuncusu da uygulama, süreç ve davranışlar ile ilgili olarak çalışanların örgütsel algılarının olumlu yönde değiştirilmesi anlamına gelen yenilikçi iklim oluşturmadır (Moolenaar ve diğerleri, 2010; Cho ve Dansereau, 2010). Birçok çalışma bu özelliklerin çalışanların performansı ve iş doyumu üzerinde etkilerinin bulunduğunu ortaya koymaktadır (Anderson, 2008; Bass, 1997; Bass ve Avolio, 1994; Bommer ve diğerleri, 2004).Yukarıda değinilen bütün özelliklerin çalışanların ve dolayısıyla da okulun değişimi ve dönüşümü üzerindeki etkileri bu çalışmanın ülkemiz eğitim sistemi bakımından önemini kaçınılmaz kılmıştır. Araştırmanın Amacı Bu araştırmanın iki amacı bulunmaktadır. Birinci amacı Moolenaar ve diğerleri (2010) tarafından geliştirilen Okul Yöneticilerinin Dönüşümcü Liderlik Davranışları Ölçeğinin Türkçeye uyarlanmasıdır. İkinci amaç ise bu ölçeğe dayalı olarak öğretmenlerin ilköğretim okul yöneticilerinin dönüşümcü liderlik davranışlarına dair algılarını ortaya çıkarmaktır. Bu araştırma ile eğitim sistemimiz içerisinde önemli bir yere sahip olan okul müdürlerinin Dönüşümcü liderlik özelliklerini ne düzeyde olduğu belirlenmesi ve bu okul yöneticilerinin Dönüşümcü liderlik davranışlarının kazandırılması için yapılan diğer çalışmalarla da desteklenen bir takım somut öneriler geliştirilmektedir. Araştırmanın Yöntemi Araştırmada tarama modeli kullanılmıştır. Ölçeğin gerçeklik ve güvenirlik çalışmalarının yapılması amacıyla açımlayıcı (exploratory) ve doğrulayıcı (confirmatory) faktör analizleri yapılmıştır. Açımlayıcı faktör analizi, Mardin il merkezi ve ilçelerinde 310 ve doğrulayıcı faktör analiz ise Adıyaman il merkezi ve ilçelerinde görev yapan 390 ilköğretim öğretmeninin araştırmaya katılımıyla gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bunun sonucunda ülkemizde uygulanabilirliği, geçerlik ve güvenilirliği kanıtlanan ölçme aracı, öğretmen algılarına göre ilköğretim okul yöneticilerinin Dönüşümcü liderlik özelliklerini belirlemek amacıyla, geçerlilik ve uyarlama çalışmalarının dışında kalan Adıyaman (n343) ve Malatya il merkezinde görev yapan (n479) katılımcılar olmak üzere toplam 822 ilköğretim öğretmenine uygulanmıştır. Uyarlama çalışması sonucunda ölçek beşli Likert tipinde 23 maddeden oluştuğu anlaşılmaktadır. Buna göre ölçek, vizyon oluşturma, bireysel ilgi, entelektüel uyarım ve yenilik iklimi oluşturma olmak üzere dört alt boyuttan oluşmaktadır. Ölçekte puan yüksekliği okul yöneticilerinin dönüşümcü liderlik özelliklerinin iyi olduğunu göstermektedir. Ölçeğin kapsam geçerliliği için İngilizce 'den Türkçe' ye çevirisi ve geri çevirisi yapılmış ve bu konuda uzman görüşüne başvurulmuştur. Ölçeğin yapı geçerliliğini ve faktör yapısını incelemek amacıyla açımlayıcı faktör analizi yapılmıştır. Faktörleştirme tekniği olarak temel bileşenler analizi ve varimax dik döndürme tekniği seçilmiştir. Qlçeğin Türkiye koşullarında uygulanabilirliğini doğrulayabilmek için madde faktör ve madde toplam korelasyonları, ayırt edicilik ve madde iç tutarlılık (Cronbach Alfa) gibi madde analizleri yapılmıştır. 4 faktörlü yapı doğrulayıcı faktör analizi ile de test edilmiştir. Açımlayıcı faktör analizinde SPSS 15.0 ve doğrulayıcı faktör analizde ise için Lisrel 8.80 programı kullanılmıştır. Araştırmanın Bulguları Araştırmaya katılan öğretmenlerin demografik özellikleri değerlendirildiğinde katılımcıların % 47.6'sının kadın, .4'ü erkek olduğu ve % 41.5'inin ilköğretim birinci ve .5'inin de ikinci kademede görev yapmakta olduğu görülmektedir. Ölçeğin uyarlanması sürecinde yapılan araştırmaya ilişkin iki araştırma bulgusu elde edilmiştir. Birinci bulguda, ölçeğin uyarlanmasına ilişkin açımlayıcı faktör analizinde, KMO 0.95 ve Bartlett testinin X2(253)5265,175; pc.01 olması dağılımın çok değişkenli normal dağılımdan geldiğini göstermektedir. Faktör yük değerlerinin kabul düzeylerine göre bir maddenin (22. madde) yük değerleri farkının 0.1 den büyük olması nedeniyle maddenin ölçekten çıkarılmasına karar verilmiştir. Buna göre, 23 madde ve 4 alt ölçekten oluşan ölçek, toplam varyansm % 69.31'ini açıklamaktadır. Ölçeğin tamamına ilişkin Cronbach Alfa güvenirlik kat sayısı 0.96'dır. Doğrulayıcı faktör analizinde ise, x2 506.93, df 224, x2/df 2.3, GFI 0.90,AGFI0.85,NFI0.98, NNFI0.98, CFI0.98 ve RMSEA 0.066 olduğundan ve ölçeğinin iyi bir model olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. İkinci bulgu ise katılımcı öğretmenlerin % 61.2'si müdürlerin okul vizyonunun paydaşlarca benimsenmesine, % 72.0'ı öğretmenlerin bireysel ilgi, % 64,8'i okulda yenilik ikliminin oluşturulması, % 65,1'i öğretmenlerin bireysel ilgi anlamında desteklenmesine önem verdiğini belirtmişlerdir. Öğretmenlerin cinsiyet değişkenleri ile ölçeğin alt boyutları arasında anlamlı farklılık bulunmuştur (p.05). Buna göre, erkek öğretmenler kadın öğretmenlere göre, okul yöneticilerinin Dönüşümcü liderlik özelliklerinin daha iyi olduğunu belirtmişlerdir. İlköğretim okullarında görev yapan farklı statülerdeki öğretmenlerin algılarına göre, okul yöneticilerinin dönüşümcü liderlik davranışları alt ölçekleri arasında anlamlı bir farklılık yoktur (p.05). Araştırmanın Sonuçları ve Öneriler Okul Yöneticilerinin Dönüşümcü Liderlik Davranışları Ölçeğinin uyarlanması çalışması sonucunda ölçeğin geçerli ve güvenilir nitelikte olduğu anlaşılmıştır. Hem açımlayıcı hem de doğrulayıcı analizlerle test edilen ölçekten sadece bir madde atılmıştır. Ölçeğin iyilik uyum indeksleri yeterli ölçüdedir. Bu çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlara göre öğretmenler, müdürlerinin vizyon geliştirme, bireysel ilgi, entellektüel uyarım ve yenilikçi iklim oluşturma davranışları konusunda genelde olumlu bir algıya sahiptirler. Yine araştırmada elde edilen bir sonuca göre öğretmenler, müdürlerinin liderlik özelliklerinin ve iletişim becerilerinin iyi olduğunu ve kendilerini yeterli bir şekilde güdülediklerini belirtmişlerdir. Bu sonuçlar değişik araştırmalar tarafından da desteklenmektedir. Araştırma sonuçlarına göre, okul yöneticilerinin dönüşümcü liderlik rolünü gerçekleştirme düzeyinin yükseltilmesi amacıyla, üniversite-bakanlık işbirliği, yöneticilikte eğitim yönetimi alanında lisansüstü eğitim koşulu aranması, yönetici atamalarında politik etkilerden uzak yeterlilik ölçütlerinin esas alınması ve öğretmenlerin kuramsal adanmışlığınm sağlanmasına uygun bir okul kültürünün oluşturulması önerilerine yer verilmiştir. ; Problem Statement: Transformational leadership increases organization members' commitment and engagement in meeting organizational goals and it enhances skills and capacities. Many studies reveal that transformational leadership behaviors, such as idealized influence, inspirational motivation, individualized consideration, innovative climate, and intellectual stimulation, are positively related to better performance and increased job satisfaction. It is considered that since managers of the future will be transformational leaders, they should be trained as transformational leaders. Purpose of the Study: The main purpose of this study is to introduce usability of the Cross-Cultural Adaptation of Headmasters' Transformational Leadership Scale. It also purposes to discover headmasters' behaviors based on teachers' perceptions. Methods: In this study, a descriptive statistical model was employed, and 822 teachers participated in the Malatya (n442) and Adıyaman (n380) provinces. The sample of this study was chosen by a purposive sampling method. Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) was employed to obtain evidence related to construct validity of the scale, and it administered on 330 primary schools teachers in Mardin. For Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA), it was administered to 390 teachers in Adıyaman, Turkey. Findings and Results: After EFA and CFA processes, it was proven that this scale is valid and usable for the Turkish context. As a result of the reliability and validity processes, the adapted form of the scale was composed of 23 items. Item sub-factor correlation was between 0.78 and 0.90, and item total correlation was between 0.61 and 0.80. Cronbach value was found to be 0.96. Other values found were 0.87 for vision building; 0.88 for individual consideration; 0.92 for intellectual consideration; and 0.91 for the innovative climate sub-dimension. As a result, it was discovered that 61.22% of the teachers remarked that their headmasters provided participation for vision building; 72.02% stated that their individual consideration were valued; and 65.07% claimed that their individual stimulation was supported. Finally, 80% asserted that they were encouraged for an innovative climate in their organizations. Conclusion and Recommendations: Results reveal that teachers' perceptions about their headmasters' transformational leadership behaviors are positive in vision building, individual consideration, intellectual stimulation, and innovative climate. They perceive their headmasters' leadership qualities and communicative skills positively. It is recommended that headmasters who are incompetent should be trained carefully through in-service programs.
Una tarde montevideana del invierno del 2011, de menguante sol sobre el ventanal de un bar de Pocitos, este cronista encontró por casualidad a Enrique Estrázulas, después de muchos años sin verlo. El escritor miraba la cucharita y su vaso de café cortado. Cuando alzó los ojos un momento hacia la calle, nos saludamos y entré al bar. Quizás, si lo pienso mejor, en poesía nada resulta casual de modo convincente.Por ejemplo, Enrique nunca imaginó que iba a recorrer el mundo gracias a Pepe Corvina, según le confesó a María Esther Gilio en 1995. "Toda la historia vino a partir de un pescador que ví una sola vez en mi vida, en la puerta de mi casa, con una lata herrumbrada en la mano, diciéndole a mi padre y a mi tío: «Este es el mapa del Paraíso Terrenal»". Pero por algo será que después de ese libro consagratorio, el escritor uruguayo nacido en 1942 desplegó una extensa obra en muchas direcciones –además de su labor como diplomático y periodista–. Como poeta, es el autor de El Sótano (1965),Fueye (1968), Caja de tiempo (1971), Confesión de los perros (1975), Poemas de amor -Madrigales, Blasfemias (1979). Como novelista, además de Pepe Corvina (1974), Estrázulas publicó Lucifer ha llorado (1980), El ladrón de música (1982), El amante de paja (1986), Los manuscritos del Caimán (2004), Espérame Manon (2009). Y no faltan dentro de su vasta producción los volúmenes de cuentos como Los viejísimos cielos (1975), Las claraboyas (1975) y Cuentos fantásticos (1984), ni tampoco los ensayos comoLa canción de la mugre (1970), Mientras viva un poeta, un ladrón y una puta - ensayo sobre Carlos de la Púa (1970), El canto de la flor en la boca (1978), ni las obras de teatro como Borges y Perón (1998). Esa misma tarde, invernal pero tibia, Estrázulas aceptó responder por mail algunas inquietudes para Letras Internacionales que probablemente muchos de sus lectores –antiguos, nuevos o futuros–, desearían conocer a modo de puesta al día con un autor de estilo inconfundible, prosa siempre poética, y atmósferas y personajes entrañables. En definitiva, todos buscamos pistas del mapa del Paraíso Terrenal.LETRAS INTERNACIONALES – Me gustaría que compartiera con nuestros lectores algunos recuerdos de su amistad con grandes creadores, como Julio Cortázar y Alfredo Zitarrosa.ENRIQUE ESTRÁZULAS – Mi amistad con Julio Cortázar se inició en París en 1976. Ya lo había conocido en Alemania días atrás. Una mañana sonó el teléfono en mi habitación del hotel Saint Michel y era la voz de Cortázar que me invitaba a almorzar en un restaurant de Saint Germain donde iba frecuentemente. Nos encontrábamos en la esquina de la editorial Gallimard y fuimos hasta ese pequeño local donde se podía conversar tranquilamente con vista a los puentes del Sena. Me pareció que a Cortázar le gustaba la gente, que era un hombre sociable y me contestó lo siguiente "No me gusta para nada la gente. Me gusta conversar con el autor de Pepe Corvina, por ejemplo, pero la gente en general no me atrae y soy muy poco sociable". A continuación hablamos de Onetti, quien era mi íntimo amigo y a quien Julio admiraba sin conocerlo mucho. Me preguntó si era un personaje muy agresivo y solitario y yo le respondí que era esas dos cosas, pero cuando se daba la amistad con él, era un hombre entrañable, humorista y a menudo lleno de ocurrencias. Onetti era un gardeliano enfermizo y yo también. Una de las pasiones de Onetti eran los tangos y el alma de cantores como el que mencioné. No recuerdo que me haya nombrado nunca otro personaje que no fuera El Mago. Cortázar me preguntó por los escritores preferidos de Onetti a nivel latinoamericano y yo le mencioné a Juan Rulfo y a Jorge Luis Borges. Onetti decía que Rulfo era extraordinario, que se podía estar con él una hora sin hablar o hablando constantemente. Rulfo, más tarde fue amigo mío. Hicimos tres giras por Alemania y aunque decía que no, me pareció un viajero incansable. Onetti a Borges no lo cuestionaba políticamente: decía que el escritor podía ser del partido político que quisiera o no ser de ninguno o, por último despreciar la política. Un día que no olvido me dijo "Si querés leer a un escritor perfecto, incluidos los europeos leé a Borges". Cortázar tenía muchas reservas con Borges, dado que el autor de Rayuela era un hombre muy politizado hacia la izquierda. Algunos de sus colegas decían que Cortázar pertenecía a la "izquierda divina". Yo lo admiraba fundamentalmente por sus cuentos y por su condición de buena persona. Con relación a las amistades literarias fui muy amigo de Idea Vilariño, de Mario Vargas Llosa, y como ya lo manifesté, de Borges y Onetti. En aquel momento nacía mi amistad con Julio Cortázar con el que dialogamos muchas horas.LI – ¿Cuál ha sido su evolución desde los tiempos de Pepe Corvina, Las claraboyasy Los viejisimos cielos, hasta la actualidad, mientras se aguarda la publicación de su próxima novela?EE – Desde los tiempos de Pepe Corvina, tuve una convicción no compartida por muchas personas. Yo creía, y creo, que mi segunda novela Lucifer ha llorado es tan importante como Pepe Corvina. No tuvo el éxito de esa famosa narración, pero tuvo una recepción crítica impresionante a la que no acompañaron las ventas del libro. Con relación a Los viejísimos cielos (mi primer libro de cuentos) empezaron mis narraciones cortas y algunas contundentes como "Teatro Vacío". También en el libro Las Claraboyas existen relatos que voces autorizadas han tildado como admirables. Esos relatos son "Ruedas de tren con sueño", "Sirena Varada" y, entre otros, "La verdad está triste". Más tarde seguí mi línea de narrador ( sin abandonar la poesía, porque la lírica está implícita en la narrativa) hasta obtener algunos éxitos como El ladrón de música y El amante de paja. Me gusta, particularmente, mi novela para buenos lectores titulada Espérame, Manón y que el lector común no entendió. Ahora estoy trabajando titánicamente en una novela que tiene la ambición de la aventura y del relato fantástico. Se llama, desde ya, El sueño del ladrón y anda por países exóticos como Islandia, por el Montevideo maravilloso y tétrico del Prado, por una Buenos Aires de diálogo infinito y en busca de algunas facetas desconocidas del universo. Es una novela filosófica. Es también una narración fantástica cuyos personajes, claramente humanos, son fantásticos también. Yo no me propongo nada más que literatura, filosofía y un entresueño universal que sería profano para las mentes comunes. Una de las mentes más dotadas para pensar el infinito y la vida fue mi amigo Alfredo Zitarrosa. Ahora lo quieren convertir en gran poeta.Yo creo con toda sinceridad, que se trató de un gran cantor criollo y un escritor de letras para cantar, no de poemas. Era , indiscutiblemente, en consonancia con nuestra larga amistad, una mente superior. No agrego más.LI – ¿Cuál es su visión de la cultura hoy, desde su sensibilidad como poeta, narrador y hombre atento a todas las expresiones del arte, incluido el arte popular?EE –El panorama actual es gris y confuso. Muchos se han lanzado a buscar la invención de grandes artistas que no son frecuentes. Algunos se han dedicado al descubrimiento de genios que todavía están anclados y no sabemos si algún día levantarán amarras. Hay un fetichismo central que nos dice, polémicamente, que la izquierda es sinónimo de cultura. Lo dudo.Con relación a mis actividades como poeta, y a veces dramaturgo , creo que el próximo año publicaré Cien poemas breves que me parecen sintetizar lo mejor de mi poesía. Escribo teatro desde hace años. Mi primera obra, se llamó Borges y Perón. Se estrenó con éxito en el teatro Cervantes de Buenos Aires en 1997. Posteriormente estrené en Montevideo, la obra El gato y el sacristán con distintas suertes. Otra sobre Onetti y Gardel, aún es un texto sin voz humana, sin estrenar.El arte popular, no existe, para mí, dentro de ese encasillamiento. Si hablamos de lo popular, podríamos hablar de Gardel, pero Gardel no era exactamente "popular" porque siempre lindaba con el arte mayor. Reconozco el arte popular como bueno, pero no soy un especialista. Soy un hombre que oye*Profesor de Cultura y Sociedad ContemporáneaLI – FACS – Universidad ORT Uruguay
Il 'piano', nel divenire delle pratiche e dell'esperienza, paga un fortissimo tributo alla complessità dei processi entro i quali si svolge. Una complessità che attraversa saperi sostantivi e procedurali con contenuti di norma confliggenti, e che tende verso scenari desiderati da conseguire attraverso l'assunzione di decisioni affette da incertezza. Il piano, soggetto alla complessità e all'incertezza delle decisioni che lo caratterizzano, appare strumento talvolta inopportuno perché regolarmente disatteso, giacché imperfetto, pur continuando a far parte del diritto di ciascun cittadino a conservare o trasformare la realtà e di beneficiare equamente e in modo efficiente di opportunità e servizi. La pianificazione e la programmazione dello sviluppo sono qui viste come discipline orientate al conseguimento di una razionalità limitata nel senso di Simon (1982) eppure indispensabile per supportare e organizzare la decisione collettiva secondo principi di equità, efficienza e conservazione delle risorse e le ricadute sui comportamenti individuali. Queste tre sintetiche affermazioni definiscono l'orientamento disciplinare rispetto al quale è stata condotta la ricerca descritta in questo lavoro. Esse rappresentano, allo stesso tempo, il punto di partenza e il risultato di un approfondimento che mira a sviluppare la razionalità della decisione collettiva ponendo questioni metodologiche e tecniche per la conoscenza e l'interpretazione delle trasformazioni del contesto, appoggiando sul supporto tecnologico degli strumenti dell'ICT e disegnando un approccio che si interroga sul ruolo della conoscenza alla luce dell'affermarsi dei processi di partecipazione al piano fino alle estensioni del cloud planning, del social planning, del wiki planning. Il lavoro di ricerca, dopo aver indagato aspetti legati all'evoluzione dell'approccio alla programmazione dello sviluppo rispetto all'esperienza italiana dal secondo dopoguerra fino all'evoluzione delle politiche UE, è stato legato all'approfondimento dell'approccio ontologico come strumento di gestione della complessità e della conoscenza legata al processo di piano. L'ontologia viene considerata come strumento di supporto alla decisione di piano e strumento operativo per una migliore gestione del processo di pianificazione incluse le fasi di gestione e valutazione. In particolare ci si riferisce alla costruzione e allo scambio dell'informazione all'interno del processo di piano che passa attraverso istanze di interoperabilità semantica e tra infrastrutture di dati contemporaneamente necessarie ad una pluralità di attori coinvolti nel processo. Secondo la posizione di Genesereth e Nilsson (1987), la base per la rappresentazione, la comunicazione e il trasferimento della conoscenza risiede nel processo di concettualizzazione. Tale processo riguarda l'astrazione di oggetti, concetti e altre entità che si suppone esistano all'interno di un dominio di interesse e delle relazioni che tra questi sussistono e risultano rilevanti per le finalità cognitive. L'interpretazione della realtà che sottende al processo di costruzione della conoscenza passa attraverso una fase di osservazione. In generale tale attività non può comunque essere considerata pienamente oggettiva in quanto dipende dal punto di vista dell'osservatore e dalle finalità del processo di costruzione della conoscenza. L'interpretazione che l'osservatore restituisce della porzione del mondo reale investigata dipende fortemente dal suo background culturale, dai suoi interessi, e dal rapporto con la realtà. Queste considerazioni, trasferite all'interno del processo di piano, si amplificano per dimensione e conflittualità. Il piano è uno strumento che definisce scelte, che pone vincoli e configura assetti in ragione di un'utilità collettiva che non è comparabile con l'utilità individuale (Pareto, 1919), e, pertanto, genera conflitti facilmente amplificabili in un contesto di scarsa conoscenza connessa al piano. Un modo per schematizzare i livelli di conoscenza oggetto delle considerazioni trattate in questo lavoro è considerare tre dimensioni: la conoscenza "del piano", ovvero necessaria alla costruzione degli scenari conoscitivi e valutativi alla base delle scelte, la conoscenza "circa il piano", connessa ai processi di partecipazione al piano che necessitano di un elevato livello di comunicazione per conseguire l'efficacia desiderata, la conoscenza "per il piano", ovvero del flusso informativo multidirezionale tra gli attori dell'attuazione e della valutazione del piano stesso. Queste dimensioni configurano e definiscono un problema di interazione, e, dunque, di interoperabilità fra modelli di rappresentazione della realtà differenti, generati da ciascun attore del processo. Si tratta di un problema di interoperabilità nell'accesso alla conoscenza del piano, non perché questa sia nascosta o taciuta, ma, piuttosto, in quanto derivante dalla mancanza di una semantica condivisa tra chi assume le scelte di piano e chi le attua, o le subisce. Interoperabilità semantica, dunque, che genera problemi analoghi a quelli che si determinano nell'interazione tra basi di dati differenti che, senza specifiche ontologie di riferimento, non possono concorrere alla costruzione di una conoscenza condivisa. É dimostrabile come sia possibile, e, soprattutto, sia necessario, per ogni base di dati, definire un'ontologia specifica (Laurini, Murgante, 2008). Quest'affermazione implica la possibilità di disporre di "n" ontologie locali che dovrebbero comunicare reciprocamente per collaborare alla costruzione di una conoscenza condivisa. Laurini e Murgante (2008) definiscono "l'ontologia di dominio" come un'ontologia di livello più elevato che connette diverse ontologie locali (specifiche), con una funzione di "mediatore" nel processo di promozione dell'interoperabilità tra le basi di dati. Il dominio dello sviluppo locale nel quadro delle politiche regionali dell'UE, tra i domini in cui è possibile articolare la disciplina della pianificazione territoriale, è particolarmente complesso in quanto le interazioni, la complessità procedurale, la numerosità degli attori, conducono ad inefficienze sistemiche già analizzate in lavori precedenti (Scorza, 2009; Las Casas, Scorza, 2009). La complessità dell'interazione connessa al piano, e della comunicazione, hanno orientato la ricerca verso strumenti concettuali che, allo stesso tempo, favorissero lo scambio informativo e permettessero di modellizzare una realtà complessa. L'ontologia, intesa some modello astratto e semplificato della realtà, fornisce risposte concrete a queste istanze e, pertanto, merita attenzione nell'ambito degli strumenti di supporto alla decisione e al processo di piano. Il tema delle ontologie applicate al dominio della pianificazione territoriale e, più in generale, a quello, più ampio, delle scienze regionali, sulla base delle poche esperienze ad oggi sviluppate, rappresenta una sfida nella direzione di una ricerca di una sempre maggiore razionalità del piano (Laurini 2007). La dimensione principale, rispetto alla quale le recenti applicazioni stanno configurando prospettive operative significative, riguarda l'organizzazione e la condivisione della conoscenza all'interno del processo di piano, in una prospettiva di integrazione multidisciplinare che si confronti con i paradigmi della complessità. Le esperienze di volunteered data che vengono sviluppate in numerosi settori sensibili del governo e gestione del territorio hanno rappresentato un'utile palestra per l'integrazione semantica e per il consolidamento della interoperabilità delle diverse basi di dati. È, infatti, dinanzi alla crescita senza precedenti della disponibilità di dati, potenzialmente a supporto del piano (Murgante, 2008), che emerge l'esigenza di strumenti di organizzazione della conoscenza orientati ad integrare i modelli interpretativi del territorio, attraverso riferimenti cognitivi condivisi. Le recenti dinamiche mostrano come il ruolo della comunicazione abbia assunto rilevanza all'interno del processo di decisione, e, pertanto, la concettualizzazione sistematica, proposta dall'approccio per ontologie (Gruber, 1995), diventi strumento rilevante sia in fase di costruzione degli strumenti di interpretazione delle strutture territoriali, che – come cerchiamo di dimostrare – in fase di gestione, monitoraggio e valutazione di piani e programmi. La ricerca è stata finalizzata alla costruzione di un "modello" ontologico applicato al dominio della programmazione dell'Unione Europea (UE) per lo sviluppo regionale. Si tratta di approfondimenti finalizzati a chiarimenti concettuali ed operativi connessi all'obiettivo di costruire un'ontologia per la pianificazione regionale "pronta all'uso", con particolare riferimento alla componente programmatica dello sviluppo. L'approccio utilizzato implica un'attività di modellizzazione attraverso un processo d'ingegnerizzazione della conoscenza in un quadro multidisciplinare (Las Casas, Scardaccione, 2008). In quest'ottica, la ricerca è stata strutturata secondo un approccio rigoroso nei concetti e ripetibile nelle strutture logiche, e, soprattutto, nell'insieme delle relazioni che vengono proposte.Alla luce dei risultati ottenuti appare che i benefici derivanti dalla condivisione di un modello concettuale della conoscenza non siano distinguibili nel breve termine e ciò rappresenta un problema di diffusione dell'approccio ontologico alla pratica. Una risposta a questa criticità è rappresentata dall'adozione di criteri nella progettazione dell'ontologia che consentano una trasferibilità del modello su più contesti (o domini), senza eccessivi rimaneggiamenti. Tuttavia, rispetto alla replicabilità e il rigore logico dei risultati della ricerca, è possibile un'estensione dell'analisi alla molteplicità dei domini concettuali legati alla sfera della programmazione regionale e al caso della programmazione dello sviluppo regionale assistita da risorse comunitarie in cui tali contesti sono rappresentati dal quadro degli strumenti operativi della programmazione 2007-2013, compresi i programmi operativi regionali (monofondo), interregionali nazionali, e i programmi di sviluppo rurale.
El último libro de Nicos Mouzelis, "Modern and postmodern social theorizing. Bridging the divide" es una interesante puerta de entrada a los debates de fondo sobre teoría y métodos que hoy se producen en las ciencias sociales.Estos debates son también visibles en Relaciones Internacionales. En la discusión entre autores liberales, realistas (o neo-realistas) y constructivistas se ponen en cuestión temas como la relación sujeto-objeto de conocimiento o la primacía de la explicación macro de los fenómenos sociales versus la interpretación micro de los mismos (explicación vs interpretación) (1).Es bueno encontrar libros como el de N. Mouzelis que intentan zambullirse en estos problemas con claridad expositiva, densidad teórica e ideas propias.El autor.N. Mouzelis es profesor emérito de London School of Economics. Nacido en Atenas en 1939, recibe su Phd en Sociología en 1966. Trabajó en la Universidad de Leicester y desde 1970 en London School of Economics. Ha abordado temas de historia, organizaciones, desarrollo y teoría social. Quien quiera puede profundizar en su curriculum académico en: http://mouzelis.gr/.N. Mouzelis es un "sintetizador" (2), al estilo de J. Habermas, P. Bourdieu o A. Giddens. El objetivo de estos autores es encontrar puntos de contacto entre las teorías que enfatizan la estructura (condicionantes objetivos del comportamiento) y teorías que enfatizan la agencia (orientaciones subjetivas del comportamiento social). La obra de este grupo amplio y disímil de teorizadores emerge –en parte- como una respuesta a la crítica postmoderna de la tradición sociológica. Los sintetizadores intentan reavivar la teoría social clásica integrando en un todo coherente las grandes divisiones entre micro y macro sociología, subjetivismo y objetivismo, agencia y estructura. El objetivo es construir un corpus teórico que permita superar dichas antinomias de una manera no esencialista ni autoritaria (principal acusación de los pensadores postmodernos).El libro.La diferencia que el mismo Mouzelis (3) pretende tener frente a otros sintetizadores es la intención de tender puentes (bridging) antes que hacer una teoría inclusiva que resuelva (transcend) la antinomia estructura – agencia. Esta diferencia es para Mouzelis clave para una visión sociológica enriquecida de las sociedades contemporáneas. Y éste es el objetivo del autor en el libro que estamos reseñando:"The general underlying thesis is that these two fundamental divides (4) in the social sciences should neither be abolished nor transcended; instead, one should create concepts which eliminate obstacles and enhance communication between micro and macro, as well as between action- and system-oriented approaches."La estructura del libro.El atractivo del libro que estamos reseñando es que permite recorrer más de 100 años de producción teórica de manera ágil, clara y pedagógica.El libro se estructura en 5 partes. Las partes I, II y III están dedicadas a la discusión del tema central que ocupa la obra de los grandes sintetizadores: el problema agencia - estructura. La parte IV y V abordan la tarea de "tender puentes" entre las teorizaciones modernas y postmodernas. El libro finaliza con 12 reglas para la construcción de un paradigma holístico abierto (no esencialista).Ideas útiles.En las primeras tres partes del libro Mouzelis aborda el problema agencia - estructura desde su génesis. Primero repasa el planteo de Talcott Parsons, luego se introduce en las versiones contemporáneas de la obra de Parsons y termina con una visión crítica de las soluciones que dan Giddens y Bourdieu al problema agencia - estructura. El lector que recién se inicia en teoría social tiene en dichos capítulos un panorama muy rico y abarcativo de los problemas contemporáneos y las soluciones que hoy se debaten.En este recorrido el capítulo 3 es de interés para quienes están en el área de Relaciones Internacionales. El mismo aborda desde una perspectiva evolucionista el problema de la difusión de la democracia en el capitalismo global. El autor afirma que Parsons no se equivocó al predecir el colapso del comunismo, aunque sí se equivocó al postular que la Democracia es un "universal" de la modernidad. Según Mouzelis hay casos de adaptaciones al mundo moderno en los que no ha habido democratización, ni formas inclusivas de integración social (China, por ejemplo). Argumenta que el colapso de la Unión Soviética fue debido a un déficit de desarrollo económico antes que un déficit democrático. Esa presión viene de un sistema internacional cuyas orientaciones están gobernadas por el desarrollo económico (y no por cuestiones de geopolítica). De todas formas, destaca un elemento que es fructífero para quienes trabajan en Relaciones Internacionales: la importancia de pensar en términos sistémico-evolucionistas para entender el mundo global.En las partes IV y V, Mouzelis apunta a la elaboración de guías teóricas para pensar el mundo contemporáneo desde una perspectiva holista. Una perspectiva de este tipo "(…) raises the methodological question of whether or not it is possible to study social wholes (such as formal organizations, communities, nation-states and global formations) in a non-essentialist and, at the same time, non-fragmentary, overall manner." (217) La respuesta de Mouzelis a dicha pregunta puede ser útil para el estudio de problemas internacionales.El autor plantea la necesidad de un dualismo metodológico consistente en abordar un proceso social tanto desde el punto de vista de los actores como desde un ángulo sistémico. Esto implica, en el primer caso, hacerse preguntas sobre las consideraciones reflexivas, las interpretaciones, las interacciones estratégicas, la cooperación y el conflicto entre los actores. En el segundo caso, implica explorar las condiciones de existencia de los sistemas sociales así como las compatibilidades o incompatibilidades de sus subsistemas institucionales (y el campo de posibilidades que estos ofrecen al "juego" de los actores).El autor insiste en que la riqueza está en estudiar estas dos áreas de determinación (sistema y actor) con las herramientas propias de cada una. La propuesta de articulación de los niveles "sistema" y "actor" de Mouzelis se realiza luego de enfocar por separado cada nivel. Asimismo, es una articulación que proviene del estudio empírico de situaciones en las que el análisis opera a partir del estudio concreto de los "juegos" llevados a cabo por los actores en función de limitaciones y posibilidades que el sistema ejerce sobre sus "jugadas". Un ejemplo, de aplicación de esta idea está en el capítulo 14, páginas 234-236.Para terminar.N. Mouzelis comparte con Peter Berger (5) un rasgo infrecuente en el mundo académico. Ese rasgo es el buen humor. Es común que Mouzelis ponga en práctica sus conceptos teóricos ejemplificando a partir de su propia trayectoria vital. En su último libro, el autor hace un análisis de la lógica de transformación de la London School of Economics en tanto organización. Para quien está acostumbrado a leer papers y libros académicos, esta puesta en escena de la vida personal es un gesto bienvenido.De ahí el título de esta reseña. "Llena tu cabeza de teoría" es la paráfrasis de una popular antología de música rock de los años '80 ("Llena tu cabeza de rock"). La idea se le ocurrió a un colega con quien hace muchos años discutíamos qué libros haríamos leer a nuestros alumnos si fuésemos profesores de teoría social. Mi colega fantaseaba con la idea de llamar a su curso "Llena tu cabeza de teoría". La lectura del libro que acabo de reseñar es tan estimulante como un buen disco de rock. En un plano experiencial diferente, el libro de Mouzelis cumple con creces la idea de incentivar el pensamiento teórico, de llevar al lector a pensar viejos problemas de forma innovadora o nuevos problemas desde tradiciones de pensamiento supuestamente inadecuadas para el mundo contemporáneo, pero fértiles aún.(1) En sociología éste debate se conoce con muchos nombres. Uno de los más usados es el que refiere a la dicotomía "estructura-agencia".(2) Para leer un resumen de las principales ideas de los "sintetizadores" véase: E. Cuff, W. Sharrock , D. Francis, Perspectives in Sociology, London, Routledge, 1998, 309 y ss.(3) El aporte de Mouzelis en esta materia se concentra en tres obras, de la cual la última será objeto de análisis de esta reseña:Back To Sociological Theory: The Construction Of Social Orders, London, Macmillan, 1992. Sociological theory: what went wrong? Diagnosis and remedies, London, Routledge, 1995. Modern And Postmodern Social Theorising: Bridging The Divide, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2008.(4) Refiere a la separación entre acción y estructura.(5) Otro gran sociólogo y teorizador. *Profesor de Fundamentos de la Investigación Social y Seminario de Investigación.Depto de Estudios InternacionalesFACS – ORT Uruguay.
Author's introductionThe process of globalization can be defined in neutral terms as the increasing cross‐border flows of goods (e.g., coca‐cola, cocaine), services (e.g., McDonalds, prostitution), money (e.g. family cash, corporate banking), people (e.g., migration, vacation), information (e.g., internet, movies), and culture (e.g., fashion, religion), resulting in greater economic and political interdependence. Defined in this way, globalization appears rather benign – even positive. But in truth, the 'interdependence' that is being created is not one of equality or hope for most people in the world. Multinational corporations are certainly benefiting from globalization, but ordinary workers are not. In this article, I explore the way in which globalization is altering social identities in ways that are both exploitive and liberating.Author recommendsJoseph E. Stiglitz, Globalization and its Discontents (New York, NY: W.W. Norton and Company, 2002).This is an important and influential critique of globalization written by a Nobel Prize winning economist. During his career as an academic, Stiglitz was a strong advocate of economic globalization, but after serving as a White House advisor and Chief economist at the World Bank, his opinion changed. He wrote this book in an attempt to publicize the devastating effect of globalization on developing countries. Written for a general audience, Stiglitz explains how globalization managed from the top down must be radically revised before the poor will benefit from global economic policies.Barbara Ehrenreich and Arlie Russell Hochschild, Eds, Global Women: Nannies. Maids, and Sex Workers in the New Economy (New York, NY: Henry Holt and Company, 2002).This research anthology offers extensive documentation of the real world impact of economic globalization on women and their families. Fifteen chapters cover a range of penetrating investigations of women from across the globe who migrate, suffer and sometimes surrender in their quest for economic security. A common theme is the immense sacrifice made by mothers and children who are struggling to carve out a life amidst the powerful forces of a new global economy. The studies provide heart‐wrenching evidence that economic policies managed from the top, serve to exploit the poor, alter women's lives, and change the meaning of family.Jan Nederveen Pieterse, Globalization and Culture: Global Mélange (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2004).The potential impact of globalization on world cultures is explored in this brief but highly instructive book. Jan Nervenn Pieterse offers an accurate summary of competing theories of cultural globalization and artfully guides the reader through important intellectual debates. Does globalization lead to greater cultural integration? Are unique cultural identities and practices dissolving under the pressure of globalization? Is the world becoming uniform, standardized, and homogenized? There are no certain answers to these questions, but the author argues forcefully that globalization is leading to hybrid cultures with greater diversification and cultural mixing – a global mélange.Jeremy Brecher, Tim Costello and Brendan Smith, Globalization from Below: The Power of Solidarity (Cambridge, MA: South End Press, 2000).The worldwide movement of resistance to top‐down globalization is reviewed, defended and advocated in this powerful little book. This inspirational volume is much more than an academic analysis of the anti‐globalization movement; it is an answer to all those who ask, 'What can be done?' The historical power of social movements is a guiding theme from start to finish. Chapters examine a global program for change, practical policy initiatives, and opportunities for participating in grassroots democracy. This is an outline for hope and a pragmatic strategy for how globalization can be altered from the bottom‐up.Hubert J. M. Hermans and Giancarlo Dimaggio, 'Self, Identity, and Globalization in Times of Uncertainty: A Dialogical Analysis', Review of General Psychology, 11(2007), 31–61.This is an excellent review article that examines the psychological consequences of globalization. According to the authors, the social, cultural and economic changes associated with globalization have disrupted traditional life patterns and have called in to question normative expectations. As a consequence, many individuals are left with a powerful sense of psychological uncertainty that motivates individuals and groups to find local niches to construct a stable identity. The organizing argument is that the processes of globalization and localization (globalization's counterforce) require a conceptualization of self and identity in which global and local voices are involved in continuous interchanges and negotiations.Jan E. Stets and Peter J. Burke, 'A Sociological Approach to Self and Identity'. In: Mark Leary and June Tangney (Eds), Handbook of Self and Identity (Guilford Press), 128–152.In this review article, the authors present a nice summary of a particular sociological view of self and identity. George Herbert Mead influences their approach, which falls within the theoretical tradition known as 'structural symbolic interactionism'. A key insight is that our conceptions of self are organized by larger social structures, while at the same time, social structures emerge from individual actions. The review includes an examination of different types of identities, the influence of social roles, and the impact of emotions.Online materialsGeorge Herbert Mead http://www.iep.utm.edu/m/mead.htm Mead is one of the most influential theorists of the self. His life and work are reviewed in detail at this site.Global Capitalism: The World Trade Organization http://www.wto.org/ The World Trade Organization (WTO) is one of the most powerful economic institutions in modern history. It is the organization through which top‐down, capitalists, and powerful nation states implement global economic policy. At this site, the WTO defends its goals and explains its operations and strategies.Fundamentalist Responses to Globalization http://www.jihadunspun.com/index.php This controversial web site represents the political and cultural interests of some Islamic fundamentalists. A significant portion of the site is devoted to news stories from the Middle East where Islamist groups are engaged in political and military battles with competing political parties and nation states. This particular web site illustrates both a fundamentalist response to globalization and the global communication tools employed by some fundamentalist groups.Democratic Responses to Globalization http://www.forumsocialmundial.org.br/index.php?cd_language=2&id_menu= The World Social Forum is an excellent example of how democratic resistance to top‐down globalization is global in scope. At this site, one can see evidence of bottom‐up, grassroots organizing. Learn how social movements, NGOs, and other civil society organizations come together to debate ideas and formulate proposals for ending top‐down globalization. http://www.globalexchange.org/index.html Global Exchange is another organization committed to resisting the destructive effects of globalization. This site provides a bottom‐up perspective on international trade and a wide range of resources for democratic activists. Video links also offer illustrations of some recent protest actions. http://www.topics‐mag.com/globalization/page‐resist.htm This simple but instructive site gives a basic introduction to globalization and provides several examples of local people from across the globe who are working to resist the homogenizing and harmful effects of capitalist globalization. Examples include campaigns to protect regional cuisines in Korea, France, and Brazil by protesting fast food chains and advocating for a 'slow food' movement.Sample syllabus Globalization from Above and Below Week 1: The Sociology of Globalization Anthony Giddens, Runaway World: How Globalization is Reshaping Our Lives (New York, NY: Routledge, 2003). Weeks 2–6: Globalization from Above Joseph E. Stiglitz, Globalization and its Discontents (New York, NY: W.W. Norton and Company, 2002).Naomi Klein, The Shock Doctrine: The Rise and Fall of Disaster Capitalism (New York, NY: Metropolitan Books, 2007).Barbara Ehrenreich and Arlie Russell Hochschild, Eds., Global Women: Nannies. Maids, and Sex Workers in the New Economy (New York, NY: Henry Holt and Company, 2002).Video: China Blue (Teddy Bear Films, 2006).This breathtaking documentary of life in a Chinese sweatshop is an excellent illustration of how globalization from above connects and exploits workers from across the globe (88 minutes). Weeks 7–10: Globalization and Culture John Tomlinson, Globalization and Culture (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1999).Jan Nederveen Pieterse, Globalization and Culture: Global Mélange (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2004).George Ritzer, The Globalization of Nothing (Thousand Oaks, CA: Pine Forge Press, 2004).Video: Wal‐Mart: The High Cost of Low Price (Brave New Films, 2005).This is a penetrating documentary that exposes the dark side of Wal‐Mart's ruthless global expansion (95 minutes). Weeks 12–15: Globalization from Below Jereny Brecher, Tim Costello and Brendan Smith, Globalization from Below: The Power of Solidarity, (Cambridge, MA: South End Press, 2000).Leslie Sklair, 'Social Movements and Global Capitalism', Sociology, 29 (1995), 495–512.Walden Bello, Deglobalization: Ideas for a New World Economy (London, UK: Zed Books, 2005)Video: This is What Democracy Looks Like (Big Noise Films, 2005).Here, we find remarkable documentary examination of the 'Battle in Seattle' when 50,000 activists from across the globe effectively shut down the ministerial meetings of the World Trade Organization in 1999 (72 minutes).Notes * Correspondence address: Peter L. Callero, Western Oregon University, 345 North Monmouth Avenue, Monmouth, OR 97361, USA. Email: callerp@wou.edu
2007/2008 ; E' rintracciabile, nell'attuale sistema processualpenalistico, un paradigma del diritto alla "informazione sull'accusa", quale consacrato nell'art. 111 comma III Cost.? La risposta a simile quesito – cui si propone di giungere la presente ricerca – impone di saggiare gli istituti funzionali, nella fase investigativa, a concretizzare tale diritto alla luce del connotati del "giusto processo", mediante un duplice percorso che, per un verso, esplora la possibilità di reductio ad unum dell'apparato informativo e, per altro verso, ne sonda il grado di effettività. L'opera si articola nelle tre parti di seguito illustrate. La prima sezione è dedicata alla definizione del concetto di "diritto all'informazione sull'accusa" nella teoria delle fonti. Il primo capitolo è dedicato alla Convenzione europea per la salvaguardia dei diritti dell'uomo e al Patto internazionale sui diritti civili e politici che, per primi, hanno configurato una organico modello di fair trial, ove il diritto all'informazione sull'accusa partecipa della duplice natura di precipitato del diritto di difesa e presupposto per l'esercizio, all'interno del processo, delle singole facoltà difensive. A fronte della laconica previsione dell'art. 6 § 3 lett. a CEDU – che, al pari dell'omologa disposizione contenuta nell'art. 14 § 3 lett. a ICCPR si risolve in una mera enunciazione dei caratteri della comunicazione –, si impone la ricostruzione del paradigma informativo attraverso l'analisi della giurisprudenza della Corte europea dei diritti dell'uomo. La giurisprudenza di Strasburgo affronta la tematica senza atteggiamenti preconcetti e sviluppa un modello di informazione, per un verso, dinamico e duttile, atto a modularsi attraverso le diverse fasi procedimentali, e, per altro verso, conforme ai canoni della tempestività e della efficienza. A tal fine, il concetto stesso di accusation, cui il diritto all'informazione è ancorato, non pare postulare formule o atti sacramentali, ma si traduce nella attività dell'organo inquirente che, nel caso concreto, sia abbia a determinare «ripercussioni importanti» sulla sfera personale della persona sottoposta alle indagini: l'avvio del procedimento, l'iscrizione della notizia di reato, l'esecuzione di una perquisizione o di un sequestro. Il secondo capitolo è dedicato alla definizione del diritto all'informazione sull'accusa all'interno della nostra Carta costituzionale, muovendo dalla sua "archeologia". Invero, sin dai primi anni '60, la dottrina e la giurisprudenza si sono interrogate in ordine alla possibilità di enucleare un modello di fair trial dalle disposizioni contenute nella Costituzione. Lo sforzo euristico degli interpreti si è inizialmente incentrato sull'art. 24 Cost., fino a giungere, nel 1996, all'esplicitazione, ad opera della giurisprudenza costituzionale, di un canone del "giusto processo" quale formula scaturente dal coordinamento dei «principi che la Costituzione detta in ordine tanto ai caratteri della giurisdizione, sotto il profilo soggettivo e oggettivo, quanto ai diritti di azione e difesa in giudizio». Parallelamente al consolidarsi di una via costituzionale ante litteram al due process of law, si assiste al progressivo manifestarsi dell'influenza delle norme contenute nelle convenzioni internazionali in materia di diritti della persona e processo penale. Simile fenomeno – che intreccia la tematica del rango rivestito, nella gerarchia interna delle fonti, dalle disposizioni pattizie – assume particolare rilievo nelle pronunce della Consulta, ove l'art. 6 § 3 CEDU viene evocato, con crescente frequenza, quale parametro "ausiliario" nel giudizio di conformità delle norme subordinate alla Costituzione. L'escalation culmina, nel 1987, con l'inserzione dell'ossequio ai principi enunciati nelle convenzioni internazionali di riferimento tra i criteri direttivi atti guidare, ai sensi dell'art. 76 Cost., il legislatore delegato alla redazione dell'attuale codice di procedura penale. La questione della diretta precettività, nel nostro ordinamento, delle norme pattizie – elette a principio informatore del codice di rito – viene, peraltro, messa in secondo piano dalla introduzione, ad opera della l. cost. n. 2 del 1999, della disciplina del giusto processo nel tessuto costituzionale. In controtendenza rispetto alla concezione "minimalista" postulata dai giudici costituzionali, da ultimo, con la sentenza n. 361 del 1998, il legislatore del 1999 introduce, nell'art. 111 Cost., un concetto "forte" di contraddittorio, che partecipa della duplice natura di canone oggettivo di esercizio della funzione giurisdizionale, in quanto fulcro del giusto processo, e di garanzia soggettiva operante nell'ambito penale. La centralità del diritto di contraddire consente di attribuire spessore teleologico alla prerogativa, riconosciuta a ogni persona sottoposta a procedimento, di essere informata, nel più breve tempo possibile e in via riservata dell'accusa elevata a suo carico: si attua in tal modo quel "diritto a difendersi conoscendo" che costituisce imprescindibile prodromo per imbastire qualsivoglia tutela processuale delle ragioni dell'imputato. Esaurita la disamina dei principi, la ricerca si impernia sulla ricognizione della fenomenologia informativa nell'attuale sistema codicistico, con riferimento a quegli istituti che sono funzionali a consentire la conoscenza "sul processo" e "nel processo" nella fase investigativa, che, sulla scorta dell'esegesi operata sull'art. 111 comma III Cost., costituisce la naturale sedes materiae del diritto all'informazione sull'accusa. Viene in rilievo l'istituto della informazione di garanzia, funzionale nell'impianto originario del codice di rito, a squarciare la segretezza investigativa con una seppur embrionale parentesi di discovery connessa all'espletamento di un atto cui il difensore abbia diritto ad assistere. Lo strumento informativo in argomento permette di focalizzare l'attenzione sul canone della riservatezza, oggetto di positivo richiamo da parte dell'art. 111 comma III Cost. Dotato di un requisito interno atto, in tesi, a consentire il massimo riserbo – ossia l'invio mediante piego chiuso raccomandato – l'istituto in argomento ha patito, nei primi anni novanta, una sistematica strumentalizzazione che, da presidio di garanzia per la persona sottoposta alle investigazioni quale era stato concepito, l'ha trasformato in veicolo di condanna anticipata. Il conseguente tentativo, operato dal legislatore del 1995, di restituire respiro all'informazione di garanzia ha, invece, finito per comprimere il diritto della persona indagata alla conoscenza della sussistenza di un'investigazione a suo carico attraverso la compressione dell'ambito di operatività dell'art. 369 c.p.p. Contestualmente alla modifica della disciplina dell'informazione di garanzia, in una logica di "pesi e contrappesi" si è inteso recuperare uno spazio di discovery mediante la modifica della disciplina del registro delle notizie di reato, regolato dall'art. 335 c.p.p., il cui accesso, nella lettera originaria del codice di rito, era interdetto sino alla formulazione dell'imputazione. Il riconoscimento del diritto della persona cui il reato è attribuito di ricevere comunicazione delle iscrizioni a proprio carico non ha, invero, sortito un effetto compensativo, atteso che la disciplina dell'accesso – lungi dal configurare una inviolabile prerogativa – patisce due testuali eccezioni. La prima, connessa alla tipologia della notitia criminis, è funzionale ad interdire ex ante la conoscibilità delle iscrizioni relative a procedimenti che abbiano ad oggetto reati di particolare gravità. La seconda è ricondotta al potere, attribuito al pubblico ministero, di secretazione delle inscrizioni in presenza di specifiche esigenze investigative. In una logica di disorganica stratificazione degli istituti, nel 1999 – dopo il fallimento dell'esperienza della contestazione della "imputazione provvisoria" di cui alla l. n. 234 del 1997 – fa il suo ingresso, sulla scena processuale, l'avviso di conclusione delle indagini preliminari, ai sensi del quale si onera il pubblico ministero, nell'ipotesi in cui non intenda richiedere l'archiviazione, di provvedere, a pena della nullità del successivo atto di esercizio dell'azione penale, di notificare alla persona sottoposta alle indagini un'informativa in cui l'ostensione degli atti di indagine si coniuga al riconoscimento di un corredo di facoltà difensive. L'avviso in argomento, contrariamente agli auspici del legislatore, lungi dall'attestarsi quale strumento principe per l'attuazione del diritto all'informazione sull'accusa, si è rivelato un «garanzia incompiuta» che, seppur dotata dei requisiti della comprensibilità e del dettaglio, contraddice il richiamo al «tempo più breve possibile», in tal modo deprivando il suo destinatario (anche) del beneficio della fruizione del tempo e delle facilitazioni necessarie per la predisposizione della strategia difensiva. A tale aporia funzionale si assomma la progressiva compressione, anche sulla scorta dell'esegesi giurisprudenziale, dell'ambito di operatività dell'istituto che, pertanto, non è idoneo a fungere da paradigma del diritto all'informazione sull'accusa. Dopo una breve analisi della disciplina dell'informazione sul diritto di difesa, regolato dall'art. 369-bis c.p.p., e sugli strumenti informativi operanti nel procedimento per l'accertamento della responsabilità amministrativa degli enti dipendente da reato (d.lgs. n. 231 del 2001), il presente lavoro si chiude con un bilancio sulla funzionalità dell'apparato informativo configurato nel codice di rito penale alla concretizzazione del principio consacrato nell'art. 111 comma III Cost. Sul profondo deficit della strumentazione – al di là della mancata rispondenza ai singoli connotati della tempestività, del dettaglio e della riservatezza – pare pesare la carenza di organicità nell'affidare l'attuazione del diritto all'informazione ad una pluralità di istituti privi di coordinamento e suscettibili di applicazione solo eventuale. ; XIX Ciclo ; 1973
Inhaltsangabe: Einleitung: Der Hintergrund einen geeigneten und attraktiven Investitionsstandort zu finden ist das Bestreben nach mehr Wirtschaftswachstum und Wohlstand. Staaten bemühen sich daher um Direktinvestitionen von ausländischen Unternehmen oder um hoch qualifizierte Arbeitskräfte. Gerade bei diesen Produktionsfaktoren ist die Standortfrage sehr wichtig. Unternehmen bauen keine Produktionskapazitäten in einem Land auf, in dem zum Beispiel die Infrastruktur nur unzureichend ausgeprägt ist. Staaten haben daher das Bestreben, ihre Attraktivität als Investitionsstandort oder Arbeitsstandort zu erhöhen. Es wird im Allgemeinen davon ausgegangen, dass Unternehmen die Attraktivität des Investitionsstandortes beispielsweise an der Qualifikation der Arbeitskräfte, an der Höhe der Löhne, an der Höhe der Steuern, an der Qualität der Infrastruktur oder an eventuellen Regulierungen messen. In der Entscheidung für ein Unternehmen, welchen Standort es wählt, spielen verschiedene Punkte eine Rolle. Diese Punkte findet man vor allem im Konzept des Risikomanagements wieder, daher möchte ich zuerst erläutern was unter dem Begriff des Risikomanagement zu verstehen ist. Unter Risikomanagement wird die Messung und Streuung aller betriebswirtschaftlichen Risiken unternehmensweit verstanden. Die Gründe für ein Risikomanagement sind vielschichtig und komplex. Da die Ursachen für das Betreiben Auswirkungen auf Art und Weise der Ausgestaltung eines Risikomanagements haben. Zu diesem Zweck werden die Gründe in folgende Kategorien unterteilt: - Rechtliche Rahmenbedingungen. - Volkswirtschaftliche Ursachen. - Technologischer Fortschritt. Zu den rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen gehört insbesondere das Gesetz zur Kontrolle und Transparenz in Unternehmen (KonTraG), welches durch eine Erweiterung des Aktien und GmbH-Gesetzes die Sorgfaltspflichten der Unternehmensführung erweitert und den Ausweis der Unternehmensrisiken im Lagebericht fordert. Diese rechtliche Grundlage betrifft in erster Linie Nichtbanken (Industrie, Dienstleistung, Handel). Für Banken stellt Basel II die aktuelle bzw. zukünftige Rechtsgrundlage für die Ausgestaltung des Risikomanagements dar. Eine mögliche weitere Rechtsgrundlage stellt der Corporate Governance dar. International finden sich ähnliche rechtliche Anforderungen beispielsweise im Sarbanes-Oxley Act, einer Rechnungslegungsvorschrift für Unternehmen, die an US-Börsen gelistet sind. Die volkswirtschaftlichen Ursachen, liegen im Wesentlichen in den veränderten Rahmenbedingungen der Finanzmärkte durch Einführung neuer Finanzmarktinstrumente, Abschaffung fixer Wechselkurse sowie allgemein einer zunehmenden gesetzlichen Deregulierung der Finanzmärkte. Schließlich äußert sich der technologische Fortschritt in erster Linie durch eine schnelle Informationsverbreitung durch elektronische Medien und Internet. Aber auch die von Unternehmen hergestellten Produkte veraltern durch neue Technologien schneller, wodurch Produktrisiken steigen und sich Produktzyklen verkürzen. Im Ergebnis nehmen durch den ständigen technologischen Fortschritt die Informationsverbreitung und damit die Globalisierung erheblich an Geschwindigkeit zu. Die Folgen der Globalisierung und den verkürzten Lebenszyklen äußern sich in zahlreichen Unternehmensinsolvenzen der vergangenen Jahre. Ein professionelles Risikomanagement erfordert die Zusammenarbeit von Wissenschaftlern und Praktikern unterschiedlicher Disziplinen. Dazu zählen insbesondere Ökonomen, Mathematiker, Naturwissenschaftler aber auch Informatiker. Die größte Herausforderung des Risikomanagements besteht darin, das heterogene Spezialwissen zu vernetzen und auf die Unternehmensziele auszurichten. Auch immer mehr kleine und mittelständische Unternehmen wollen und müssen sich international orientieren, um neue Märkte zu erschließen oder Geschäftsprozesse zu optimieren. Die internationale Markterschließung ist allerdings im Vergleich zum Inlandsgeschäft mit zusätzlichen Anforderungen verbunden, die zu berücksichtigen sind. So spielen Fragen technischer oder rechtlicher Art beim Export von Produkten ebenso eine Rolle wie kulturelle Unterschiede oder Sprachprobleme bei Geschäftsverhandlungen im Ausland. Besonders erfolgreiche Geschäfte machen die Unternehmen in den EU-15/EFTA-Ländern, in Asien und in den zehn neuen EU-Mitgliedstaaten. Die aktuelle Geschäftssituation als auch die weiteren Perspektiven auf den europäischen Zielmärkten wird als besonders positiv eingeschätzt. Vom erweiterten EU-Markt verspricht man sich vor allem Zukunftspotenzial: Hier sieht man gute Chancen in Polen (78%), Tschechien (75%) und Ungarn (61%). Weltweit wird die größte Dynamik der Geschäftsentwicklung in China (heute 52,4%, zukünftig 80,6%), Russland (heute 38,6%, zukünftig 68,6%) sowie Indien (heute 29,6%, zukünftig 50%) stattfinden. Es lohnt sich für Unternehmen, gleich welcher Größenordnung und Branche, sich neue Wachstumsziele durch die Erschließung internationaler Märkte zu setzten. Um diese Ziele zu erreichen ist eine gründliche Vorbereitung notwendig, es müssen passende Geschäftspartner gefunden werden, eingehende Informationen über den Markt, sowie geeignetes Fachpersonal gefunden werden. Des Weiteren muss ein ausgearbeitetes Geschäftskonzept, das die Grundlage für zukunftsweisende und wachstumsorientierte unternehmerische Entscheidungen darstellt, entworfen werden. Es eröffnet sich im Ausland eine Vielzahl von Chancen. Die Risiken sind bei gründlicher Vorbereitung meist überschaubar und kontrollierbar. Investitionschancen im europäischen Wirtschaftsraum: Mit der Erweiterung der Europäischen Union auf 27 Mitgliedstaaten ist der europäische Wirtschaftsraum der größte gemeinsame Markt der Welt. Zwei Drittel des gesamten EU-Handels entfallen auf den Handel zwischen den Mitgliedstaaten. Die exportorientierte deutsche Wirtschaft profitiert hiervon in besonderem Maße: Im Jahr 2005 wurden von Deutschland Waren im Wert von fast 500 Mrd. Euro in die Mitgliedstaaten exportiert. Neben den Waren kommt auch den Dienstleistungen eine immer größere Bedeutung für den europäischen Binnenmarkt zu. Dienstleistungen stellen mittlerweile 60 bis 70% der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität der EU dar und sind damit auch ein wichtiger Beschäftigungsfaktor. Ein funktionierender Binnenmarkt ist die Voraussetzung dafür, dass die europäische Wirtschaftskraft weiter steigt. Er ist nicht nur Grundlage für die internationale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der europäischen Unternehmen, sondern sichert Arbeitsplätze und bietet soziale Sicherheit in Zeiten der Globalisierung. So haben der freie Waren-, Dienstleistungs-, Kapital und Personenverkehr bei den 457 Mio. Verbrauchern in Europa zu einem höheren Lebensstandard geführt. Sie können heute günstiger einkaufen, Dienstleistungen in Anspruch nehmen oder einfacher reisen als noch vor 20 Jahren. Der maßgeblich auf einem funktionierenden Binnenmarkt beruhenden Wirtschaftsraum Europa ist damit ein Eckpfeiler unseres sozialen Wohlstands. Der Schwerpunkt dieser Bachelorarbeit besteht darin, einen direkten Ländervergleich der Länder Polen und Russlands aufzuzeigen und somit mögliche Risiken und Hemmnisse zu veranschaulichen. Im Rahmen dieser Analyse werden vor allem die Komponenten des Länderrisikos zur Beurteilung herangezogen. Durch die Erweiterung der Europäischen Union im Mai 2004 und weiterer Erweiterungsrunden um die Staaten Osteuropas muss ein Umdenken in den multinationalen Unternehmen innerhalb der bisherigen Geschäftspolitik erfolgen. Diese Arbeit stellt mit ihrer aktuellen Brisanz einen wissenschaftlichen Beitrag mit erheblicher Praxisrelevanz für die hiesigen Unternehmen dar. Gleichwohl kann diese Arbeit nur einen begrenzten Einblick in die Komplexität der Thematik gewähren. Das ist insbesondere mit der Fülle von Informationen verbunden, die eine Investitionsentscheidung beeinflussen. Daher ist es erforderlich, sich auf die Verwertung wesentlicher Informationen zu beschränken. Durch die zum großen Teil analysierende Vorgehensweise hat die Verarbeitung statistischer Daten einen besonderen Stellenwert. Darauf aufbauend können gute Erkenntnisse über die Bedingungen in den osteuropäischen Transformationsländern gewonnen und schließlich Investitionsentscheidungshilfen abgeleitet werden.Inhaltsverzeichnis:Inhaltsverzeichnis: InhaltsverzeichnisII AbbildungsverzeichnisIV 1.Einführung1 1.1Themenstellung und Relevanz3 1.2Investitionschancen im europäischen Wirtschaftsraum4 2.Russland als attraktiver Markt für ausländische Investoren/Unternehmen6 2.1Investitionsklima7 2.2Konsumklima8 2.3Allgemeine Wirtschaftsentwicklungen Russlands9 2.3.1Entwicklung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts10 2.4Länderrisiken13 2.4.1Politische Risikokomponenten14 2.4.2Wirtschaftliche Risikokomponenten17 2.5Überblick der Geschäftsentwicklung zwischen Deutschland und Russland19 2.5.1Exportstruktur22 2.5.2Importstruktur24 3.Polen als attraktiver Markt für ausländische Investoren/Unternehmen27 3.1.Investitionsklima28 3.2Konsumklima30 3.3Allgemeine Wirtschaftsentwicklung Polens31 3.3.1Entwicklung des Bruttoinlandsproduktes31 3.4Länderrisiken37 3.4.1Politische Risikokomponenten37 3.4.2Wirtschaftspolitische Veränderungen39 3.4.3Wirtschaftliche Risikokomponenten41 3.5Überblick der Geschäftsentwicklung zwischen Deutschland und Polen43 3.5.2Wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit44 3.5.3Exportstruktur45 3.5.4Importstruktur46 4.Risikopotenziale/Erkennung48 4.1Risikoindikatoren51 4.1.1Quantitative Risikoindikatoren51 4.1.2Qualitative Risikoindikatoren52 5.Russland vs. Polen52 5.1Index of Economic Freedom53 5.2Global Competitiveness Index (GCI)56 5.3Ease of doing business58 5.4Corruption Perception Index64 5.5Worldwide Governance Indicators - Corruption control66 6.Risikokennzahlen68 6.1Business Environment Risk Intelligence Index (Beri-Index)68 6.2Value at Risk (VaR)/Cash Flow at Risk71 7.Risikoanalyse Russland und Polen im Ländervergleich72 8.Ausblick78 Anhang83 Literaturverzeichnis96Textprobe:Textprobe: Kapitel 3.5, Überblick der Geschäftsentwicklung zwischen Deutschland und Polen: Deutschland ist seit vielen Jahren der mit Abstand wichtigste Handelspartner Polens. Umgekehrt ist Polen einer der bedeutendste Handelspartner Deutschlands in Mittel- und Osteuropa. 2006 stieg der Umsatz im bilateralen Handel um 26,4% auf 49,4 Mrd. EURO. Die deutsche Ausfuhr nach Polen betrug 2006 28,8 Mrd. EURO, die Einfuhr aus Polen belief sich auf 20,7 Mrd. EURO. Polen exportiert vor allem Maschinen, Fahrzeuge, Haushaltsgeräte, Lebensmittel und Möbel; deutsche Firmen führen insbesondere Maschinen, Anlagen, Fahrzeuge, Chemie - und Kunststofferzeugnisse aus. 2006 rangierte Polen bei der deutschen Ausfuhr auf dem 10. Platz, Polen bei der deutschen Einfuhr auf der 13. Stelle. Auch im ersten Halbjahr 2007 stieg der bilaterale Handel um weitere 25% an. Deutsche Investitionen in Polen: In der Rangliste der wichtigsten Investoren liegt Deutschland mit ganz vorne. Die kumulierten Direktinvestitionen in Polen von mindestens 1 Mio. Euro belaufen sich seit dem Systemwechsel 1989/ 1990 auf etwa 12 Mrd. Euro (davon im Jahr 2006 - 2,7 Mrd. Euro). Schwerpunkt größerer deutscher Investitionen in Polen sind: Automobilindustrie und Maschinenbau, Chemie und Pharma, Banken und Versicherungen, Groß- und Einzelhandel, sowie Energie. Dazu kommen die statistisch nicht erfassten Investitionen kleiner und mittlerer Unternehmen von weniger als 1 Mio. Euro, insbesondere in der Grenzregion. Danach dürfte Deutschland in der Summe und in der Zahl nach das führende Herkunftsland ausländischen Kapitals in Polen sein. Unter den neuen EU- Mitgliedsstaaten konnte Polen 2006 den höchsten Zufluss ausländischen Kapitals in Höhe von 12 Mrd. Euro (ohne Transitkapital; Schwerpunkte: Niederschlesien, Großraum Lodz, Wojewodschaft, Malopolskie, sowie 14 Sonderwirtschaftszonen im grenznahen Raum zu Deutschland) verzeichnen. Deutsche Unternehmen sehen Polen als einen Markt mit beachtlichen Wachstumsraten und Ertragschancen. Zu den Stärken Polens gehört das umfassende Regelwerk, die hohen Fördermitteln, die Größe des polnischen Binnenmarkts mit 38,2 Mio. Einwohner, die relativ niedrigen Steuersätze, die gute Ausbildung der Fachkräfte, das vergleichsweise günstige Lohnniveau für die meisten Fachkräfte, sowie die Existenz von Sonderwirtschaftszonen mit erheblichen Steuervergünstigungen. Wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit: Deutschland unterstützt Polens wirtschaftlichen Aufholprozess auf vielfältige Weise. Im Rahmen der EU, der Polen seit 2004 angehört, leistet Deutschland als größter Nettozahler einen wichtigen Beitrag für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung Polens. Auch fördert Deutschland Polen über Programme der Weltbank, der Europäischen Bank für Wiederaufbau und Entwicklung sowie des Internationalen Währungsfonds. Vor dem EU-Beitritt Polens war Deutschland für die Heranführung Polens an die EU, die Verbesserung der Rahmenbedingungen für die Marktwirtschaft sowie die Förderung des Unternehmenssektors durch Umstrukturierung und Privatisierung eingetreten. Auch die Bundesländer haben sich in vielfältiger Weise engagiert. Hervorzuheben ist auch die regionale und grenznahe Zusammenarbeit. Eine regelmäßig tagende Regierungskommission, an der deutsche Bundesländer und polnische Wojewodschaften beteiligt sind, koordiniert die Aktivitäten. Zugleich ist eine Reihe von Fachgremien tätig (unter anderem zum Ausbau der Grenzübergänge und zu gemeinsamer Planung von Verkehrswegen, Straßen- und Güterverkehr, Umweltrat, Oder-Probleme, Binnen- und Seeschifffahrt). Der Wegfall der Personenkontrollen an der deutsch-polnischen Grenze zu Jahresende wird die grenzüberschreitende Zusammenarbeit weiter erleichtern Exportstruktur: Angesichts der starken Exportorientierung vieler ausländischer Direktinvestitionen hat sich die polnische Ausfuhr seit den 1990er Jahren international umorientiert sowie quantitativ und qualitativ stark verändert. Fand 1989 der Austausch zu etwa 35% mit der damaligen östlichen Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft RGW statt, so werden heute zwei Drittel des Außenhandels mit der Europäischen Union abgewickelt. Davon wiederum entfällt ein beträchtlicher Teil auf Deutschland. Die Exportquote der polnischen Wirtschaft ist kontinuierlich angestiegen und betrug im Jahr 2007 etwa 27% (zum Vergleich, die der Deutschen liegt bei 32%). Das Wachstum des Außenhandelvolumens ging mit einer drastischen Veränderung in der Güterstruktur des Außenhandels einher. Bei den Exporten dominieren inzwischen eindeutig Güter des verarbeiteten Gewerbes, während der Anteil an Primärgütern stark geschrumpft ist. Nahrungsmittel konnten noch ein bestimmtes Gewicht halten, während die Ausfuhr von Rohstoffen und mineralischen Brennstoffen ihre ursprüngliche Bedeutung fast vollständig eingebüßt haben. Der starke Bedeutungszuwachs der Industrieexporte bezieht sich vor allem auf die Ausfuhr von Fahrzeugen, elektronischen und elektrotechnischen Produkten sowie Erzeugnisse der Maschinenbauindustrie. Der Trend in Richtung technologisch anspruchsvoller Exportgüter ist eindeutig. Mit ausländischem Kapital, oft von Grund auf errichtete Firmen, so vor allem im Automobil- und Elektroniksektor, haben wie bereits erwähnt einen sehr hohen Anteil am polnischen Exporterfolg. Inzwischen ist der Export nach der Inlandsnachfrage und den Investitionen nur noch das dritte Standbein des Wirtschaftsbooms. Noch vor drei Jahren war dies umgekehrt. Allerdings konnte der Export 2006 mit einer Zuwachsrate von 23% fast den Spitzenwert 2005 (25%) erreichen. Deutschland ist in der Exportstatistik seit Jahren führend; allerdings hat sich der Anteil am Ausfuhrvolumen 2006 leicht auf 27,2% (2005: 28,4%) verringert. Importstruktur: Die Importstruktur ist geprägt vom Bedarf der polnischen Industrie an qualitativ hochwertigen Vorprodukten und der starken Nachfrage nach insbesondere langlebigen Konsumgütern und Investitionsgütern. Dementsprechend sind Maschinen und Transportmittel auch beim Import die am raschesten wachsende Warengruppe: Ihr Anteil stieg zwischen 1995 und 2003 von 29,9% auf 38,0%. Beim Import hat Deutschland seinen Stellenwert als Polens wichtigster Handelspartner 2006 mit 24% behaupten können. Dahinter folgten Russland mit 9,7%, Italien mit 6,8% und China mit 6,1%. Polen importierte 2006 aus Deutschland laut des polnischen Wirtschaftsministeriums vor allem Erzeugnisse der Elektro- und Maschinenbauindustrie, auf die ein Anteil von 41,85% entfiel. Produkte der Chemieindustrie folgten weit ab mit 20,53% vor solchen der Metallindustrie (15,95%), Holz und Papier (5,38%), Agrarprodukten und Nahrungsmitteln (4,41%), Mineralprodukten (3,83%), Erzeugnissen der Leichtindustrie (3,63%), Keramik (1,86%), Leder und Waren (0,42%) sowie Sonstigen (2,14%). Zu den deutschen Lieferprodukten mit den größten Zuwächsen zählten Erze sowie Schlacken und Aschen (+253,2%), Getreide (+252,1%), Kupfer und Waren (+236,8%), Zink und Waren (+212,6%) sowie Teppiche und andere Fußbodenbeläge aus Spinnstoffen (+192,3%). Polen weist derzeit ein relativ hohes Defizit in seiner Zahlungsbilanz aus. Hauptgrund: Die Importnachfrage entwickelt sich angesichts hoher Investitionen schneller als die Exporte. Viele dieser Investitionen stärken allerdings die polnische Exportwirtschaft, so dass sich Wachstumseffekte mittelfristig auch auf der Ausfuhrseite niederschlagen sollten. Kurzfristig aber könnte sich das Zahlungsbilanzdefizit von voraussichtlich etwa 4,5% (Ende 2007) sogar noch um bis zu 3 Prozentpunkte ausweiten (bis Jahresende 2008).
Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan erästä Euroopan integraation vähemmän tutkittua ulottuvuutta: integraation vaikutuksia jälkikommunistisen yhteiskunnan kansalaisjärjestöihin. Liettualainen ympäristöjärjestösektori ja Ignalinan ydinvoimalan tapaus tarjoavat rajallisen, mutta samalla hyvin konkreettisen näkökulman kysymyksen tarkastelemiseksi. Tutkimus nojaa vuosina 2001-2003 kerätyn haastatteluaineiston laadulliseen analyysiin. Ignalinan ydinvoimalan tapauksen perusteella voidaan tulkita liettualaisten ympäristöjärjestöjen kohtaamia muutospaineita neuvostoajan lopulta aina Liettuan EU-jäsenyyteen saakka. Ignalinan ydinvoimalan ympärille keskittynyt liikehdintä oli yksi keskeisimmistä neuvostovallan vastaisen protestin välineistä 1980-luvun lopun Liettuassa. Ignalinan ydinvoimalasta muodostui tuolloin neuvostovallan poliittinen symboli; protestointi ydinvoimalaa vastaan oli samalla vastalause Moskovan sanelupolitiikalle ja vallitsevalle yhteiskunnalliselle järjestykselle. Ignalinan poliittinen symboliasema kuitenkin muuttui radikaalisti Liettuan itsenäisyysjulistuksen myötä: voimalasta muodostui niin taloudellisesti kuin poliittisestikin tärkeä kansallisen suvereniteetin osa. 1990-luvun lopulla ydinvoimalan poliittisen symboliaseman muutos sai yhä vahvemman ilmentymän EU:n esittäessä Ignalinan molempien reaktoreiden alasajoa ennen niiden lasketun käyttöiän umpeutumista. Eräät liettualaiset ympäristöjärjestöt toimivat aktiivisesti osana laajempia eurooppalaisia kansalaisjärjestöverkostoja vaatien itäisen Keski-Euroopan neuvostomallisten ydinvoimaloiden välitöntä sulkemista. Siten Ignalinan tapaus aiheuttaa monissa tapauksissa järjestöidentiteetin epävarmuutta: Yhtäältä ympäristöjärjestöidentiteetti vaatii kriittistä suhtautumista ydinvoimaan, erityisesti neuvostomallisiin RBMK-reaktoreihin. Toisaalta taas Ignalinan ydinvoimala koetaan Liettuan taloudellisen ja poliittisen omavaraisuuden takaajaksi. Ignalinan tapauksen ympärille rakentuva identiteettipoliittinen asetelma voidaan yksinkertaistaa tilanteeksi, jossa ympäristöjärjestöt hapuilevat kahden yhteensopimattoman toimintamallin välillä: järjestöt toivovat voivansa toteuttaa rooliaan ympäristöjärjestöinä, usein laajempien eurooppalaisten ympäristöjärjestöverkostojen mallin mukaisesti, mutta samalla kansallisen suvereniteettipolitiikan tuottamat mallit ovat vahvasti läsnä järjestöjen määrittäessä perusluonnettaan. Ignalinan tapauksen pohjalta tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan myös laajempia Euroopan integraatioon ja jälkikommunistiseen kansalaisjärjestötoimintaan liittyviä kehityskulkuja. Tutkimus tuo esiin, että Euroopan integraatio on luonut monitasoisen institutionaalisen järjestyksen, joka määrittää oman vaikutuspiirinsä säännöt. Euroopan integraatio on samalla ilmiö, joka toteutuu myös hyvin arkipäiväisissä asioissa se on läsnä monissa mikrotason käytännöissä vaikuttaen siis myös ympäristöjärjestöjen toimintaan. Samalla voidaan havaita, että politiikan muodot ja tyylit eivät synny tyhjiössä tai pelkästään rationaalisten valintojen tuloksena; historia, sen tuottamat tulkinnat sekä rutiineihin perustuvat säännönmukaisuudet ovat läsnä poliittisessa elämässä, niin kansalaisjärjestötoiminnassa kuin muussakin yhteiskunnallisessa aktivismissa, samoin kuin hallinnollisissa käytännöissä. ; The colourful, sometimes even dramatic, history of Lithuanian environmental non-governmental organisations (NGOs) makes them an interesting subject of political science research. During the past fifteen years the role of the Lithuanian environmental movement has changed quite radically. The environmental movement had a central political role at the time of the Lithuanian independence activism in the late 1980s, but the movement later lost its mobilising potential and was marginalised by the beginning of the 1990s. Since then the environmental NGOs have been strongly affected by the process of European integration. Environmental NGOs have served both as agents and indicators of the institutional change taking place in Lithuania. The dynamics of this change can be analysed through the case of Ignalina in the course of the past couple of decades the nuclear power plant of Ignalina in the north-east corner of Lithuania has been a reference point for a number of political discussions and processes. During the Lithuanian independence movement the nuclear power plant became a symbol of Soviet rule. As Ignalina was strongly associated with the hegemony of Moscow over Lithuania the plant occupied a central role in the fight towards national sovereignty. Independence activism took the form of environmental protests, especially in the early stages of the Lithuanian reform movement, and a large number of environmental organisations were established all over Lithuania. The political context provided an opportunity to address sensitive political questions through environmental activism. For instance, in September 1988 thousands of protesters formed a human chain the ring of life around the two units of Ignalina as a manifestation of Lithuanian national sovereignty and identity. The symbolic position of Ignalina changed radically after Lithuania s independence declaration in March 1990. As Moscow imposed an energy embargo on Lithuania it soon became clear that the country was dependent on its own sources of energy, of which the nuclear power plant of Ignalina was the most important one. Although Ignalina had only recently served as the symbol of Soviet oppression, the plant suddenly proved indispensable in the reconstruction of the nation and its material well-being. In 1995 the Lithuanian government tabled a EU membership application. Towards the end of the decade Ignalina was brought on the political agenda of the EU it soon became evident to Lithuanians that the closure of the nuclear power plant would be considered a de facto prerequisite for EU membership. As a result, the question of Ignalina was highly politicised the setting gave Ignalina a positions as the symbol of national sovereignty. There had been a radical shift in the political symbolism surrounding the plant. Meanwhile, the environmental NGOs faced a dilemma: Some of the environmental activists were closely linked to European anti-nuclear NGO networks and were strongly in favour of the decommissioning of Ignalina. However, many of the environmental NGOs also carried with them a long tradition of ethno-cultural thinking thus connecting the organisations closely to the notion of Lithuanian national sovereignty. Against this background it proved difficult for many organisations to define their role in view with the question of Ignalina what would be appropriate political action? As a result, there remained a great deal of indecisiveness and confusion among the environmental NGOs as to the decommissioning plans of Ignalina, and more generally as to the role of the environmental organisations in the Lithuanian society. The case of Ignalina provides a framework within which it is possible to analyse certain dimensions of national sovereignty in an integrating, post-Cold War Europe. The integration of Central and Eastern Europe into the EU has produced a situation in which many of the expectations attached to national sovereignty are being challenged. The research also brings forward a topic that has received only limited attention in the past, namely the effects of European integration on non-governmental organisations in Central and Eastern Europe. By focusing on a specific sector of Lithuanian NGO activity it is possible to analyse the dynamics of europeanisation on a very concrete level. The case of Ignalina suggests that the activists of Lithuanian environmental NGOs are forced to ponder the raison d être of their organisations in the face of different, often conflicting institutional pressures. The expectations drawn from fresh national sovereignty are not always compatible with the models of action produced by the European integration process. The case evidences a conflict between post-Communist nation-building and the institutional limitations brought about by EU membership. Simply put, the idea of national sovereignty on the one hand and European integration on the other offer environmental NGOs distinctive, often conflicting, models of appropriate political action. The models of action created by the institutional framework of the EU are not easily compatible with the norms typical of a newly independent state. This identity political conflict is especially pronounced whenever national and European norms are placed in direct opposition with each other. However, it should be noted that the national and European levels of politics cannot be completely distinguished from each other. It is interesting to notice how models of action drawn from the EU system often form the very basis of national or local political action. Therefore it can be stated that the separation between European and national models of appropriate action is not always feasible. It is possible to approach most political questions, including the encounter of Lithuanian environmental NGOs and the EU, from an institutional perspective. The theoretical framework of the study is based on new institutionalism , and the notion of logic of appropriateness is central to the study political institutions are analysed as collections of norms that define the rules of appropriate political action in different situations. In essence, politics is about appropriate action. The research seeks to explain the logic of appropriateness being followed by Lithuanian environmental NGOs. The research problem is approached through a set of questions: (1) How does the colourful history of the Lithuanian environmental movement affect the political characteristics of today s environmental NGOs? (2) What does the specific case of Ignalina tell us about the institutional contexts in which the Lithuanian environmental NGOs operate? (3) How to define the relationship between Lithuanian environmental NGOs and the politics of national sovereignty? (4) What is the relevance of the institutional framework of the EU to Lithuanian environmental NGOs? The study suggests that the rules of appropriateness change depending on the political context. At the same time, the conflicts produced by differing, overlapping institutional environments are reflected in the inner dynamics of political actors, resulting to indecisiveness and confusion. Since political action is first and foremost directed by the logic of appropriateness, the interpretations of political contexts are of central relevance. Therefore it is possible that a single object, such as a nuclear power plant, can be given a variety of interpretations in the realm of identity politics. The case of Ignalina evidences that symbolism and interpretation form the core of political life.
Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: "Macroeconomic stability and rapid export growth were the two key elements in starting the virtuous circles of high rates of accumulation, efficient allocation, and strong productive growth that formed the basis for East Asia's success." (World Bank, 1993). Public perception of the Asian economies could hardly have shifted more since that time. Currency depreciation, rising corporate bankruptcy, bank failures, and sovereign bonds downgraded to junk bond status ended the euphoria in Asian "emerging markets". Almost overnight, the reputation of the Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs) in East and South East Asia deteriorated from a model of efficient development to an example of worst "crony capitalism". Politicians, rating agencies, and investors were caught off guard by the development of the Asian financial crisis. During the meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum (APEC) in November 1997, U.S. President Bill Clinton referred to the financial crisis in Asia as merely "a few small glitches in the road". Moody's and Standard and Poor's had upgraded the Philippines' long term debt rating a few months earlier and downgraded the affected economies only when the crisis persisted for more than three months. Com-paring Thailand's situation to Mexico's economy prior to the peso crisis 1994-1995, the Morgan Stanley star analyst Barton Biggs wrote in January 1997:"Thailand's problems are cyclical, not secular. Thailand is not Mexico in late1994. [..]On the numbers, Thailand qualifies for the euro and is healthier than Germany". The optimism seemed warranted by a history of high growth in the Asian countries. Before the outbreak of the crisis, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand had experienced uninterrupted growth of more that 5 percent of GDP per year for almost two decades. The economic profession also experienced its Waterloo in Asia. Economists not only failed to predict the crisis; they also failed to recognize the vulnerability of the region. Paul Krugman (1994) in his now famous article in "Foreign Affairs" was the only well-known economist to doubt the sustainability of rapid growth in East and Southeast Asia. Nevertheless, even he did not predict this kind of collapse, but rather a gradual economic slowdown of growth. Despite the initial confusion among economists, academic discussion about the Asian financial crisis quickly crystallized around two different explanations of the crisis. One explanation of the Asian financial crisis states that the affected countries suffered from constantly deteriorating fundamentals, such as worsening cur-rent account deficits, growing dependence on short-term loans, slowing export growth, and a rising share of non-performing loans. This made a crisis inevitable. Proponents of this explanation believe the Asian countries were ruled by "crony capitalism". Implicit and explicit government guarantees of loans led to over-investment and to investment in non-tradable and risky sectors, such as real estate and the stock market. This created an asset bubble, which eventually burst and dragged the over-leveraged financial intermediaries down with it. The situation was aggravated by the fact that borrowed funds were largely de-nominated in U.S. dollars. The run on the currency and the subsequent abandon of the exchange rate peg gave rise to a skyrocketing debt burden in terms of domestic currency and caused a further spread of bankruptcies.6 Although the proponents of the crony capitalism explanation acknowledge that market might have overreacted, they argue that the exchange rate crisis was fully warranted by fundamentals and not entirely caused by market irrationality. The second explanation blames the outbreak and the spread of the financial crisis in Asia on the intrinsic instability of international lending. According to this explanation, the Asian economies suffered from a state of international illiquidity when the crisis struck. This means that short-term foreign currency obligations exceeded available assets. The countries were therefore vulnerable to runs by their international creditors. Each creditor withdrawing their funds acted ration-ally, as he knew he would incur losses if he failed to withdraw his funds in the case of a financial panic. The change in investors' sentiments succeeded in devastating the Asian economies because they had recently opened the domestic financial markets. Countries with worse banking problems and a higher degree of corruption, like China, Vietnam, and Pakistan, could shield themselves from the crisis because their capital account had not been liberalized prior to the crisis. Jeffrey Sachs and Steven Radelet refer to the Asian financial crisis as a "crisis of success" where international investors' exuberance first led to a lending boom. Once the vulnerability of Asian economies to external shocks was discovered, exuberance turned into panic and investors withdrew their funds leaving the affected economies ravaged. According to this reasoning, the behaviour led to a fundamentally unnecessary crisis. As proponents of the financial panic hypothesis insist, Asian economies showed all signs of following a sustainable path of economic development. This paper analyzes these two competing explanations for the five most affected countries of the Asian crisis: Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. It is motivated by the systemic implications of the Asian crisis for the stability and regulation of the world financial system. The moral hazard hypothesis implies that financial markets were effective, though belated, messengers of economic ills. This would mean that more liberalization and more transparency would help avoid future crises. The financial panic explanation, by contrast, calls for capital controls as long as an international lender of last resort does not exist. Bhagwati is one of the most prominent opponents of capital account liberalization. He argues that the gains of capital account liberalization are small4compared to the additional risk that the countries incur. If the financial panic hypothesis proved to be true, this would force the economics profession to reconsider the cherished virtues of free capital markets. This paper takes a moderate position and argues that economic development across the affected "Asian Tigers" was uneven and pre-existing weaknesses were so different that generalizations on the causes of the meltdown are not warranted. In the words of Barry Eichengreen, we argue that "not all tigers have the same stripes". The paper is organized as follows. Chapter 2 reconstructs the most important developments leading to the Asian financial crisis and briefly describes the un-folding of the crisis in Thailand and the subsequent spread to other countries in the region. Chapter 3 presents two models of the Asian financial crisis according to the two different sets of explanation. The first model explains the Asian melt-down with moral hazard-induced over-investment, while the second model likens the Asian crisis to a financial panic caused by a loss of investors' confidence. In last section of chapter 3, we evaluate the different models. We find that the moral hazard explanation accurately describes the cases of Thailand and Korea, but does not conform to data for Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The missing evidence for the moral hazard model, however, does not prove the existence of an irrational financial panic, but suggests the crisis in Thailand may have precipitated a deterioration of economic fundamentals in neighbouring countries. Chapter 4 focuses specifically on these dynamic effects of the crisis. We consider two channels through which the crisis in Thailand could have induced crises in other developing countries: competitive pressure through third county trade linkages and pure contagion. We find evidence that the devaluation of the baht exerted competitive pressures on the economies of the region. At the same time, there is mixed evidence at best for the existence of herding behaviour of the financial markets. In summary, the paper demonstrates that for Thailand and Korea, the moral hazard model is supported by the evidence. The other countries were on a relatively sustainable path of economic development until the devaluation of the Thai baht raised the cost of maintaining a fixed exchange rate. This result supports calls for an effective international lender of last resort. Einleitung: Die Finanz- und Währungskrise, die 1997 in Asien ausbrach, überraschte die meisten Beobachter. In den 80er und 90er Jahren galten die asiatischen "Tiger" als Vorbilder effizienter wirtschaftlicher Entwicklung. Noch im Frühjahr 1997 nahmen große amerikanische Rating-Agenturen einige der betroffenen Länder in eine bessere Risikoklasse auf und Morgan Stanleys Star-Analyst Barton Biggs schrieb noch im Januar 1997: "Thailand's problem's are cyclical, not secular. [..] On the numbers, Thailand qualifies for the Euro and is healthier than Germany." Diese Sichtweise änderte sich jedoch radikal während der zweiten Hälfte 1997. Die asiatische Länder, die zuvor gelobt worden waren, galten plötzlich als Hort schlimmster Vetternwirtschaft und Ineffizienz. Die Diplomarbeit "The Asian Financial Crisis: Facts and Explanations" nimmt eine Analyse der Finanzkrise in Asien vor und erklärt, wie es zu diesem radikalen Stimmungsumschwung kommen konnte. Mit Hilfe umfangreichen Datenmaterials wird zunächst eine Bestandsaufnahme der Krise vorgenommen. Als nächster Schritt werden zwei konkurrierende Modelle einer Finanzkrise vorgestellt: Ein Modell erklärt die Krise als eine klassische Überinvestitionskrise, die durch "moral hazard" auf Seiten der Unternehmen und der asiatischen Banken hervorgerufen bzw. verstärkt wurde. Das andere Modell sieht die Krise als eine Panikreaktion der Finanzmärkte, die prinzipiell gesunde Unternehmen und Banken in die Insolvenz trieb. Beide Theorien werden anhand von Länderstatistiken und Finanzmarktdaten auf ihre Plausibilität überprüft. Außerdem werden auf Möglichkeiten, durch institutionelle Neuerungen zukünftige Krisen zu vermeiden, hingewiesen. Diese Diplomarbeit ist für alle diejenigen Unternehmen relevant, die trotz der Finanzkrise weiter im asiatischen Wirtschaftsraum aktiv sein wollen. Für sie sind eine fundierte Kenntnis der Ursachen der Krise unerlässlich, um die gegenwärtige Situation und die wirtschaftliche Aussichten in den betroffenen Ländern besser beurteilen zu können.
This research aims to know the potential effect of Intellectual Capital Performance (ICP) to the intensity of Intellectual Capital Disclosure (ICD). The independent variables used in this research are the components of ICP that consists of Value Added Human Capital (VAHU), Value Added Capital Employed (VACA), and Structural Capital Value Added (SCVA) that is measured by using the Value Added Intellectual Coefficient (VAIC™). While, the dependent variable used in this research is ICD that measured by a disclosure index and relevant scoring system. Company size and leverage are also used in the regression model as moderating variables. One year annual reports (2017) of banking sector companies registered on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) are analyzed in quantitative research type. The samples that listed on the IDX in 2017 are selected by using purposive sampling method with certain criteria and 33 banking sector companies are obtained. The analysis is made by multiple regression analysis and the data testing is conducted by using SPSS 22 and Eviews 9 which previously has been carried out the classic assumption test first. Results of this study indicate that: (1) Simultaneously, ICP component significantly affect ICD. However, each component of VAHU and SCVA does not significantly affect the ICD, only VACA significantly affects the ICD; (2) Simultaneously, with the moderation of company size, ICP does not significantly affect the ICD. Similarly, each component of VAHU, VACA and SCVA does not significantly affect ICD; and (3) Simultaneously, with the moderation of company leverage, ICP significantly affects ICD. 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