Overclaiming knowledge predicts anti-establishment voting
In: van Prooijen , J W & Krouwel , A 2020 , ' Overclaiming knowledge predicts anti-establishment voting ' , Social Psychological and Personality Science , vol. 11 , no. 3 , pp. 256-363 . https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550619862260
People often vote against the political establishment, as underscored by "Brexit" and the Trump election. The current contribution proposes that overclaiming one's own knowledge predicts anti-establishment voting. We tested this idea in the context of a Dutch referendum on a European Union treaty with a clear pro- versus anti-establishment voting option. In a first wave (6 weeks before the referendum), Dutch citizens indicated their self-perceived understanding of the treaty, after which we tested their actual knowledge. We also measured participants' general tendency to overclaim knowledge by assessing their familiarity with nonexisting stimuli. In a second wave shortly after the referendum, we asked participants what they had voted. Results revealed that increased self-perceived understanding yet decreased actual knowledge of the treaty, and general knowledge overclaiming, predicted an anti-establishment vote. Furthermore, these effects were most pronounced among right-wing extremists. We conclude that knowledge overclaiming predicts anti-establishment voting, particularly at the radical right.