During 2011 the sudden and dramatic popular uprisings in parts of the Middle East and North Africa, which together constituted the Arab Spring, produced diverse patterns of conflict. The events of the Arab Spring were not, however, isolated in terms of contemporary conflict trends. Rather, developments across the region served to underline some of the long-term changes that have occurred in armed conflict over recent decades. This has involved important shifts in the scale, intensity and duration of armed conflict around the world, and in the principal actors involved in violence. Together these changes point to the emergence of a significantly different conflict environment than that which prevailed for much of the 20th century. Adapted from the source document.
In 2011-12 conflict continued to be a major concern for the international community, most notably in the Middle East, western Asia and Africa, but also with increased levels of interstate tension in East Asia. Nevertheless, deaths resulting from major organized violence worldwide remained at historically low levels. Perhaps the biggest single factor that has shaped the significant global decline in the number of armed conflicts and casualty rates since the end of the superpower confrontation of the cold war has been the dramatic reduction in major powers engaging in proxy conflicts. However, the relationship between states and conflict may be changing once again. In recent years there has been an increase in the number of intrastate conflicts that are internationalized -- that is, that have another state supporting one side or another. Such involvement often has the effect of increasing casualty rates and prolonging conflicts. Shifting interests and changing capabilities as a result of a weakening of the unipolar post-cold war security balance and the emergence of elements of multipolarity are clearly affecting the overall international order, even while levels of conflict remain relatively low. Nevertheless, some developments in 2011-12 could be seen as warning signs that if the positive trends in conflict that emerged in recent decades are to be sustained, new ways need to be found to build cooperative international relations to manage the changing global security order. Adapted from the source document.
Major armed conflicts in 2000 revealed a diverse set of antagonistic groups, variously driven by political ambitions, economic motives, ideology, & fear. The ultimate objective of all the antagonists was to secure control of governmental power or territory. In addition, individuals within the groups & their outside supporters sometimes were motivated by personal greed. Communal identity was a common tool used by leaders to define & motivate a group. It did not appear to be a cause of violence by itself. All but two major armed conflicts in 2000 were intrastate. However, the vast majority of them exhibited transnational characteristics that threatened regional stability. Virtually all the conflicts elicited the direct political, economic, or military involvement of other states & multinational organizations. Adapted from the source document.
Four of the major armed conflicts ongoing in 2002 -- Chechnya, Colombia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, & Israel-Palestinians -- intensified substantially. They also underlined the continuous evolution in the methods of war fighting. The conflicts in Sri Lanka, Somalia, & Sudan, each of which came close to achieving a negotiated settlement, highlighted that external influences, such as diplomatic pressure or promises of military, foreign, & humanitarian aid, can play a major role in changing the dynamics of an intra-state conflict. There is also evidence that the effects of the US war on terrorism had a direct impact on most of the eight conflicts surveyed. Adapted from the source document.
Enthält: Stepanova, Ekaterina: Trends in armed conflicts: one-sided violence against civilians. - S. 39-68 Harbom, Lotta; Wallensteen, Peter: Patterns of major armed conflicts, 1999-2008. - S. 69-85 McConaghy, Clyde: The global peace index 2009. - S. 85-93
All the 19 conflicts recorded as 'major armed conflicts' in 2004 -- those causing over 1000 battle-related deaths in any one year -- were classified as intra-state conflicts. Only three of these -- the conflict against al-Qaeda, the conflict in Iraq and the conflict in Darfur, Sudan -- are less than 10 years old. However, in a globalized world, intra-state conflicts are increasingly becoming international in nature and in effect. The complexity and diversity of these conflicts challenge the distinction between the 'internal' and the 'external', in turn calling into question the basis on which conflicts are classified and addressed. Contemporary intra-state conflicts -- the diversity of warring parties and their multiple grievances; the evolving tactics in conflict and their consequences for civilians; and the shifting location and containment of intra-state conflict-complicate traditional approaches to their analysis and management. While greater attention to the interconnection with the international community is welcome, it is also important not to overstate the global dimension of intra-state conflict. Although a number of conflicts in 2004 had international dimensions in terms of motivations, warring parties, location, funding and resolution efforts, many were also noteworthy for their localized nature -- 'small' wars with big costs -- as developments in the eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia (Aceh) illustrated. Conflicts in Burundi, Colombia and Sudan indicated how a multiplicity and irregularity of rebel parties, as well as inter-rebel hostility, can complicate conflict dynamics and efforts to manage and resolve them.
All of the 15 most deadly conflicts in 2001 were intrastate conflicts. Despite their intrastate nature, all of them were directly influenced by external actors -- some who prolonged & intensified conflicts & others who promoted conflict resolution. Of the 15 conflicts, 11 spilled over international borders, in some cases causing conflicts in neighboring states to intensify. In other cases, states in the region were not significantly affected. Although the general pattern of conflict worldwide in 2001 was consistent with previous years, the campaign against terrorism by the US & its allies after 11 September (2001) directly influenced a small number of conflicts & had a much wider indirect impact. 3 Appendixes. Adapted from the source document.
Transnationalism has been recognized as an important aspect of international relations for several decades. It has recently also become an important factor in the analysis of conflict, helping to provide explanations for and definitions of conflict that link local incidents of violence to broader social, political and economic developments in the world order. Important transnational aspects of collective armed violence are population displacement and the role of diasporas; state-based transnational conflict networks; and international terrorism and crime. Three conflict areas that claimed international attention in 2006 and most starkly demonstrate transnational dimensions of modern conflict are Afghanistan, the Middle East and Somalia. In Afghanistan the main transnational element of the conflict was the Taliban's ability to operate from bases in neighbouring Pakistan -- an allegation that has been contested by the Pakistani Government but is otherwise generally accepted as fact. The conflict involving Israel, the Palestinian territories and Lebanon illustrated the greater role of regional and transnational conflict networks and the link between state and non-state actors, as both Hamas in the Palestinian territories and Hezbollah in Lebanon received political, ideological and practical support from states such as Iran and Syria. Recognition was given to the interlinked nature of the conflicts in the Middle East by British Prime Minister Tony Blair in his call for a 'Whole Middle East Strategy' to resolve the problems of the region. In Somalia violent battles and humanitarian crises caused scores of civilian casualties and led to widespread population displacement. The inability of the Transitional Federal Government to extend its control throughout the country enabled the Union of Islamic Courts to broaden its influence, at first challenged only by US -- supported Mogadishu warlords. Devoid of any state authority to impose internal order and to counter destructive external influences, Somalia provided a base where transnational criminal and terrorist interests could intersect. The international Somali diaspora continues to affect the conflict in various ways, and large Somali refugee populations outside the country may also be a destabilizing factor. A growing awareness of the transnational character of security issues in 2006, the urgent need to counter the negative aspects of this phenomenon and the potential for making positive use of transnational actors and influences to promote conflict resolution and peacebuilding all suggest that, in the future, finding ways to address transnational aspects of conflict will be high on the international policy agenda. Adapted from the source document.
