Suchergebnisse

In this paper, we check whether the effects of monetary policy actions on output in Brazil are asymmetric. Therefore, we estimate Markov-switching models that allow positive and negative shocks to affect the growth rate of output in an asymmetric fashion in expansion and recession states. In general, results show that: i) the real effects of negative monetary shocks are larger than those of positive shocks in an expansion; ii) in a recession, the real effects of positive and negative shocks are the same; iii) there is no evidence of asymmetry between the effects of countercyclical monetary policies; and iv) it is not possible to assert that the effects of a positive (or negative) shock are dependent upon the phase of the business cycle.

We analyze the heterogeneous influence that monetary policy has on the growth rates of real personal income in 79 Russian regions over the period from 2Q2015 to 4Q2019, taking into account some of the channels of monetary policy transmission mechanism and spatial effects. The analysis was performed on the basis of panel data and a spatial autoregressive model. Besides that, we have calculated individual direct effects of changes of the interest rate for each region. Our results confirm the existence of a negative relationship between changes in the interest rate and growth rates of real personal income. This relationship is heterogeneous for different regions. Among the significant factors affecting the heterogeneity of the influence of monetary policy are the industrial structure and concentration of small businesses in regional economies. We have also found significant positive spatial effects of neighboring regions on each other. Our results generally coincide with those received in analyses of the effects of monetary policy in other countries.

AbstractWe use Google search frequency to construct sentiment indices (positive and negative) for the housing market. We find that future housing prices are negatively related to our measure of negative sentiment but not significantly related to that of positive sentiment. These relationships are robust to controls for macroeconomic variables, stock market return, and Housing Market Index, a survey‐based housing sentiment index. Furthermore, we find that an increase in negative sentiment results in a significant negative response in housing prices, while a decrease evokes little response. Thus, the housing market exhibits asymmetric responses to negative and positive sentiment and to increases versus decreases in negative sentiment. We attribute these asymmetric responses to the "negativity effect." Finally, we find that home prices are more sensitive to sentiment during recessionary periods.