Suchergebnisse

Election statistics from the US & western Europe show continuity & smoothness in a time series. There is a serial-r, one side of this is the appearance of tides of swings. 2 explanations are discussed (1) a stimulus, & (2) a response, theory. According to (1), aggregate response (the vote) forms a smooth curve because stimulus strength, like business conditions, forms a similar curve. In (2), a degree of inertia is assumed & response follows stimulus changes with some delay. By means of a growth (or decay) function, simple catalytic growth, & a series of 500 simulated election results with a stimulus balance which varies (within certain limits) in a random manner, it is shown that continuity & tides result. A slowly reacting system will respond to ramdom shocks in a seemingly cyclical way. The implications of this are discussed against the back-ground of current thinking on pol'al sociol & attitude theory. The need for an inductive study of speed & time concumption of soc processes is stressed, & for model parameters that remain constant, or are predictable, form one res situation to the next. AA.

Data from the National Election Studies were examined in an effort to isolate cognitive dissonance of two kinds' of dissonance arising from a behavioral commitment in the form of voting, & dissonance arising from inconsistencies associated with having supported the losing candidate. Feeling thermometer ratings of the two principal presidential candidates obtained before & immediately after six elections (1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, & 1996) were analyzed. Regression estimates supported a dissonance reduction explanation of observed attitude changes. Voters, as compared to nonvoters, tended to increase the evaluative distance between candidates after an election, whereas supporters of the losing candidate were more likely than supporters of the winning candidate to decrease such evaluative distances. An additional examination of voters yielded results consistent with dissonance theory: After the election, respondents reporting favorable evaluations of both candidates (a difficult choice) tended to spread comparative candidate evaluations compared to respondents who were favorable toward only one candidate (an easy choice). The results both support & cast doubt on prior studies. 3 Tables, 1 Figure, 45 References. Adapted from the source document.

In 1967, an extensive survey on factors of social mobilization in Yugoslavia was administered to 1,186 S's, in 24 communes, representing a cross-section of economic development & social-national backgrounds. Mobilization at the individual level was measured in terms of educational level, mass media exposure, & extent of domestic & foreign travel. 2 attitudinal variables were studied & compared with the mobilization measure. Traditionalism-modernism & particularism-universalism were measured in responses to 5 questions & were Guttman-scale analyzed. Theoretically, higher levels of social mobilization should be linked to higher levels of modernism & higher levels of cultural universalism, & higher levels of modernism should be linked to higher levels of cultural universalism. Empirically, groups within Yugoslavia most likely to become socially mobilized for value change, were identified & the nature of the change phenomenon from social mobilization was studied. While the social mobilization index is rising, the gains are limited to certain elite groups. The masses & nonparty members were isolated from the change stimuli. Once mobilization was achieved, value changes were equally likely to occur within the elite, & within the masses & the nonparty members. Positive correlations between mobilization & the modernization & universalism indicators were established. 6 Tables. S. Lupton.