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The reaction against the New Deal of Roosevelt & Truman, the fear of increased power of the State, the hostility toward ai planned society, the present prosperity of the US--these factors have favored the rebirth of a conservative ideology. Conservative Americans are not, however, senseless & reactionary defenders of laissez faire & of isolationism. Their pessimistic view of human nature, their distrust of abstract solutions, & their respect for past experience push them toward a decentralized & hierarchical state. Can this conservative ideology, which has had considerable success in US intellectual circles & in the Republican group around President Eisenhower, become an effective pol'al force? Circumstances are favorable for such a development, but against it are the egalitarianism & the belief in human achievement that are deeply rooted in the conscience of the American masses. Tr by J. A. Broussard from IPSA.

The changes in the electoral & party system at the beginning of the 1990s had clear consequences on attitudes & behavior of Italian ordinary citizens. By looking at the feature of political competition through the analysis of several public opinion surveys, three main results can be shown. First, with respect to the self-placement on the Left-Right dimension, Italian voters "discovered the Right." Second, party locations on the Left-Right continuum became an unsettled aspect of the electoral competition: in particular, citizen perception of party placement changed according with the overall pattern of their alliances. Finally, several cues suggest that a new political entity appeared on the Italian political landscape: the coalition. From the voter perspective, Center-Left & Center-Right alliances (including their candidates) turned out to be among the main actors of the electoral competition. At least a fourth of Italian voters made use of a judgment criterion based on an amicus/hostis logic. Hence, we concluded that the (perceived) fight between party coalitions is exploited as an easy shortcut for electoral choice. 2 Tables, 6 Figures, 58 References. Adapted from the source document.

Political scientists show little confidence in attempts at forecasting. To all hypotheses aiming at the prediction of the future, they much prefer statistical projections that are satisfied to reach the smallest possible uncertainty or the realistically highest degree of probability. Among the approaches implying these attitudes one may single out those connected with institutional as well as systemic analyses of politics. In no other political science approach but the systemic, induction always ends with a probabilistic conclusion. Therefore, the cognitive outcomes of every forecasting activity present rather different degrees of probability. On its part, the institutional approach indicates that all forecasting inquiries concerning the processes of construction of political institutions appear very complicated. All the changes represented by the weakening of parliaments, the strengthening of the executives, party government, & the personalization of leadership are filtered through phenomena of inertia & routine resistances. Hence, when aiming at acquiring knowledge that may identify objective causal relationships, any forecasting effort encounters many difficulties. The pursuit of this kind of knowledge is then obliged to take into account several diversified variables as well as their covariation. The findings are often quite poor. Nonetheless, this article suggests that the risk of making mistakes & reaching often disappointing outcomes should not deter scholars from trying to engage in a sustained forecasting effort. After all, the findings will still be susceptible to revisions & corrections. 79 References. Adapted from the source document.