China's second economy : second nature ? A study of the second economy in a socialist country is a matter of considerable interest. Indeed, the use of this approach can throw light on the ways in which the economy really functions, as opposed to the legal or official routes which it is supposed to follow. Assessment of the extent of the divergence between the two would require a precise quantification of all the diverse forms of economic activity by which the second economy manifests itself, and this, given the lack of statistics, is not generally possible. However, such indications as can be found in the country's press afford some insight into its workings, suggesting that the activities of the second economy tend to develop in all those sectors where the official economy has proved itself incapable of organizing production and distribution in a rational and efficient manner, and that they represent the reintroduction of economic incentives into a system which is almost entirely lacking in these. Illegal economic activity takes a great many forms, but broadly it might be classified under three main headings : illegalities committed by enterprises and by the administration, which arise from the contradictions within the system ; then come those illegal activities which, in one way or another, have to do with corruption and which, by definition, are committed by officials ; and lastly there are the « poor man's crimes ». The article examines these various aspects of illegal economic activity in China, one of the socialist countries which are least often mentioned in this context. For reasons which are partly structural and partly circumstantial (the latter having to do with an attempt at reform and reorganization of the economy) the second economy in China has nowadays become greatly extended. Falsification of accounts, the amount of goods and funds misappropriated not only by enterprises but also by officials or ordinary private individuals, the importance of the bribe, the simple straightforward pillaging of State property, all bring to mind Ilya Zemstov's classic description of such activities in the context of Soviet Azerbaïdjan. Having shown that this apparently heterogeneous assortment of practices does in fact add up to a coherent and well-articulated whole, the author goes on to ask a number of questions about the nature of the socialist system and the forces at work therein.
The modes of domination. The foundation of all the significant differences between modes of domination resides in the degree of objectification of the accumulated social capital, that is to say, in the existence of relatively autonomous fields : the economie field (self-regulating market), the field of cultural production (educational System), and the political field (legal and governmental apparatus). One may thus distinguish very schematically the two extreme forms between which all the possible modes of domination can arise. On the one hand, there are the social universes in which the relations of domination form, dissolve, and reform in and through interaction among individuals; here the relations can endure only at the price of personal effort and continual upkeep. On the other hand, there are the social formations in which the relations of domination are mediated by objective and institutionalized mechanisms. Among the latter are those which produce and assure the distribution of aristocratie titles, academic degrees, and money; they are independent of the individual's consciousness and beyond his powers to modify. The study of a precapitalist agrarian society such as the Kabylian allows us to grasp what may be called the "elementary forms of domination", the two ways of keeping someone permanently in a situation where he is directly dominated by another person. These two ways function by means of debts and of gifts,that is to say, by explicitly economic obligations (material violence) or else by moral and emotional obligations created and maintained by exchange (symbolic violence). The author attempts to show that it is not enough to observe, as M.D. Sahlins does, that a precapitalist economy necessarily involves the domination of one person by another. For it is essential to realize, as well, that this domination must be concealed by a screen of magical relationships. In other words, it must be hidden in order to be respected. Gift-giving, generosity, and ostentatious distribution (the limiting case of which is the potlatch) are acts of social alchemy observable whenever the direct and brutal exploitation of one man by another is not possible. Mechanisms of the same order can still be observed in capitalist societies; but there they are restricted to the domain of art and "culture", the place of pure and disinterested consumption, the sacred island lying apart from the universe of production.
Reflections on the political economy of Mainland China's foreign trade. According to certain Chinese policy makers «foreign trade is a weapon in the international political struggle». With this in mind, the author points out the relative importance of political and economic factors in Chinese foreign trade policies, economic considerations often being put aside particularly in China's dealings with developing countries. The question of the policy adopted in dealings with advanced countries is then raised, followed by an analysis of the changes that took place in the climate surrounding exchanges between China and the USSR (during the fifties), with Japan (during the sixties) and the problems which arose or may arise in trading with the USA. Since exchanges between China and the USSR are of a political nature, a deterioration has been noticeable in the terms of exchange as well as a reduction in the number of transactions, coinciding with the chill in political relations between the two countries. If there was no perceptible price discrimination on the part of the URSS before 1958, the situation changed rapidly after that time. The drop in trade between the two nations is evidently more attributable to political than to economic factors. Due to the difficulties encountered in relations with the Soviet Union, China was forced to give new impetus to foreign trade and turned to Japan. Since 1965, the latter has been China's principal trading partner. In the case of relations between these two countries, economic considerations seem to have priority, because little by little trade with Japan has become indispensable to China. As to trade between the USA and China, it is still too early to foresee what the course of development will be or to anticipate the volume of exchanges, there being no precise indications concerning the policy projected by the Chinese government. Where the two nations are concerned it seems essentially a political problem stemming from the desire to improve mutual relations. However, the opening of new commercial outlets in China would be of considerable economic interest to US firms although it is expected that competition from other Western countries will make it impossible for any one country to corner the Chinese market.
In the type-region of the Maastrichtian of Dumont for a long time strata have been recorded which differ considerably in faune from the underlying Maastrichtian tuffaceous chalk. Recently they were again discovered in the neighbourhood of Geul-hem (6 kms NE of Maastricht) and, on account of the microforami-nifera they yielded, ascribed to the Paleocene by Hofker. The definition of the age of these layers offers an important strati-graphical problem : the fixation of the upper limit of the Maastrichtian and its relations with the Secondary-Tertiary boundary, which problem occupies many micropaleontologists and stratigraphers in the world at present. In 4 localities layers were observed differing from the underlying tuffaceous chalk in lithological aspect by the presence of a more or less large quantity of glauconite. They are separated from the latter by a typical hard ground or by a series of coarse strata rich in fossils conspicuously reworked from the Maastrichtian. The hard ground contains many Ammonites, Baculites and other typical cretaceous Molluscs and the underlying tufïaceous chalk, characterized by abundant Hemiaster prunella, yielded several Belem-nella Casimir ovensis, which is generally considered as the last Belem-nite of the Maastrichtian. The overlying glauconitic tuffaceous chalk did not yield any Ammo¬ nite or Belemnite, but a macrofauna composed of species which do generally not occur in the Maastrichtian. Crania brattenburgica, a characteristic Brachiopod of the Danian of Denmark, is represented here by the subspecies Cr. brattenburgica geulhemensis. Examination of the planktonic Foraminifera from samples taken at several levels and spots in the various sites showed a marked change in microfaune above the hard ground or its equivalent. In the tuffa-ceous chalk planktonic Foraminifera, though relatively rare, were found forming an association of typical cretaceous species, with the exception, however, of a representative of the group Girt, compressa, species until now known from Post-Maastrichtian deposits only. In the glauconitic tuffaceous chalk the planktonic fraction consists of an entirely different association, with dominating species Gl. daub-jergensis, which species characterizes Danian strata all over the world. The author concludes that the upper limit of the Maastrichtian in the type-region is characterized by a typical hard ground or its lateral equivalents. The overling strata are, especially on account of the planktonic Foraminifera they contain, ascribed to the Danian.
Trans-national Firms, the Problems of International Economic Cooperation and the Present-day Imbalance in International Exchange and Payments. A recapitulation is made of the conditions of exchange in Western countries during and after grave crises or world events (confirmed by History and covering much of the 20th Century). In periods of economic growth, markets have tended toward freer trade but the author emphasizes that these situations have often been at variance with traditional models of free exchange. He considers that from the point of view of the interplay of international négociations and the possibilities for simple cooperation, there is not at the outset, as great a distance between the real conditions of exchange, as far as structures are concerned, as there is when there is a confrontation between ideal types. First he analyses the process of internationalization and trans-national integration in the Western countries, as well as the change in the character of the international expansion of capital, which is more and more removed from the schémas of the early 20th Century with regard to the major flows of investments (the adjustment between financial and real flow). It is not only necessary to take into account the importance of industrial cooperation, as it is practiced in relations with the East, but also and above all, the modes of intervention and impulsion or the necessary controls, real situations (Sj and S2) and not ideal {S*x and S*2). Would it not be possible to avoid the much feared stalemate through large-scale "multilateralization" which would call for the necessary development of exchanges of all the partners with the others and with the Third World (not to be carried on, however, in a block)? Despite the conjectures over the danger of any "frictional contacts" or the aggravation of the crisis of capitalism, the question arises as to the compatibility between the respective demands of the firms and the states concerning indebtedness, the foreseeable conditions of ebb and flow, and the malleability of the planning tradition, of its objectives and extrapolations, that is, of the classic division of the two great sectors, etc. The restructuration of exchanges by groups of products as well as the "multilateralization" by groups of countries must be envisaged, so that national preferences in structure (which must be respected) do nos bring about new stalemates to the development of East-West exchanges, already so difficult to achieve.
Kotarbinski's Praxiology and its Application to Economies. The works carried on over a period of fifty years in the field of praxiology (or efficient practice) by the Polish philospher and logician Tadeusz Kotarbinski are brought to our attention in this article. Practical Essays and The Theory of Efficient Action are examined in the light of the possible application of praxiological standards and estimations in the field of Economics and national planning. The term "praxiology" first appeared in 1897 in an article by Alfred Espinas, entitled "The Origins of Technology" and was later developed by von Mises, Oskar Lange, Raymond Aron, etc. In spite of this, the concept of praxiology (or the study of human behavior in given conditions) has remained somewhat obscure. For some time praxiological methods were employed in the West in developed countries as a means of evaluating results in different fields of activity, namely Economics. Kotarbinski considered Praxiology as a general methodological approach and as such, applicable in evaluating economic activity. He applied the f «lowing aphorisms to this type of application: "Between two actions of identical value under given conditions, the most economical is the least costly; for two actions incurring identical expenditures, the most economical is the most productive". He also established a distinction between cost economy and productivity, to be considered as two aspects of the dynamics of Economics. ' In short Kotarbinski's praxiology attempts to discover the abstract rule for efficient action. He considered that in its application, the scope of Economics is more limited than that of Praxiology in that it seeks to create conditions where the most rational methods will be used to satisfy material needs, whereas Praxiology has vaster ambitions. From this it follows that specifically economic evaluations can result from general praxiological evaluations and that praxiological standards are applicable to economic decisions. According to Kotarbinski, the general function of praxiological standards, values and categories is: (1) to clarify concepts, (2) to apply the logical norm to a given situation and (3) to justify mutual propositions between two scientific spheres (in the case in point, Praxiology and Economics). Efficiency standards according to Kotarbinski are linked to the objective and subjective probability of attaining a given goal. Finally, the author recalls that the standards for efficient planning are: (1) applicability or pertinence to the problem, (2) practicability, (3) economy, (4) precision, (5) unification, (6) continuity, (7) flexibility and (8) rationality.
Proposed Amendments to the Polish Constitution. The Sixth Congress of the Unified Workers' Party resolved to actively implement Socialist development in the People's Republic of Poland and with this end in view, concluded that the present Constitution, in effect since July 22, 1952, has outlived its usefulness. This decision came about as the result of certain developments in Polish constitutional law. In pre-communist Poland, both the Constitution of March 1921, and that of April 23, 1935, were conceptually unequalitarian, but in July 1944, the newly created People's Republic recognized de facto the legality of judicial statutes in effect in Poland on September 3, 1939, at the same time declaring illegal all legislative activity carried on by Polish ex-authorities in immigration in the West. Hence, the fundamental democratic principles of the 1921 Constitution remained in effect until July 1952, when replaced by the present Constitution. The 1952 Constitution has undergone some changes, but only of secondary importance. Today's proposals are more far-reaching and aimed at adapting the text of the Constitution to contemporary economic and social conditions on the premise that it should not only reflect durable changes which have taken place in Poland and in the World at large since 1952, but also Poland's actual position on the ladder of Communist achievement. Proposed amendments to the Constitution will be submitted to national public debate at the end of 1973, or early in 1974, and will probably be adopted by the Polish Diet on or before July 1974, to coincide with the thirtieth anniversary of the Polish People's Republic. They will be introduced in accordance with procedure stipulated in the present Constitution (article 91). Together with the amendments, there will be certain additions to existing provisions : for example, that which assigns the role of leader ship to the Unified Workers' Party, underlining its alliance with the Unified Farmers' Party and with the Democratic Party and reinforcing its activity with regard to registration in the Unified National Front ; to that which applies to farmer and worker self-management ; to the role of mass media (the press, publications, radio and television) ; to the role of trade unions ; and to the present defense system. As indicated by the above, the prescribed amendments concern all parts of the Constitution, the Introduction as well as the principal chapters. The basis for these modifications resides in the resolution of the Sixth Congress of the Polish Unified Workers' Party, already mentioned. In previous decisions made in the Central Committee of the Polish Communist Party and in suggestions presented by the three political parties and by different social organisations. An effort will be made to formulate the aims of State in accordance with the present-day situation and evolution in Poland, taking into account Polish integration in COMECON, the principles of present agricultural policy, actual conceptions with regard to private property and the role of individual consumption. The chapter concerning citizens' rights, liberties and obligations will be incorporated in the chapters devoted to State organizations. The rights of the citizen will be enumerated in greater detail and certain rights and obligations will be more clearly defined. No important changes in the functioning of the Diet and of the government are expected. The desired enforcement of the role of the Diet depends mainly on the exercise of its functions. However, important alterations may take place in the State Council, and it is even possible that the office of President of the Republic may be introduced. In local State organisations such as the People's Councils (Rady narodowe), there is a proposal to separate administrative and legislative control functions. In line with the introduction of community presidents (in December 1972), departmental (powiat) and provincial (voievodie) administrative chiefs, will probably be appointed by the central government. The power of the Supreme Court to emit directives pertaining to jurisprudence will also be reinforced and its duties enlarged ; whereas, the functions of the procurator will not be significantly modified. Certain changes in electoral practices may equally be anticipated, in particular with regard to local elections. The tenure of delegates to the Diet may be prolonged from four to five years, in this way changes in the legislature will take place at the same time the new five year plan gets under way. On the other hand, the mandate of the People's Councils (Rady narodowe) may be shortened ; in any event, elections to the Diet and the People's Councils will not take place simultaneously.
Le désir de convertir en une autre monnaie les données soviétiques en roubles a fait l'objet de nombreuses controverses et a toujours forcé l'attention des économistes soviétiques et occidentaux. L'intérêt académique accordé à la formule de conversion a été renforcé par des préoccupations pratiques : comparer le budget soviétique de défense nationale, les efforts d'investissements dans la recherche et le développement. L'intérêt récent des Soviétiques pour la technologie occidentale et la coopération économique avec les pays hautement développés, donne une nouvelle dimension au problème de la convertibilité, à savoir la conversion des données soviétiques concernant les coûts et les profits, la fixation du prix des innovations technologiques et des produits nouveaux. Cette étude entend résumer et passer en revue la situation actuelle de l'art de calculer des taux de conversion rouble/dollar, résultant de comparaisons binaires effectuées en termes de quantité et de prix entre l'Union Soviétique et les Etats- Unis. L'auteur a plus précisément voulu réaliser une analyse comparative des 22 taux rouble/dollar dont il examine le caractère rationnel, la méthode de calcul et la crédibilité. Il présente à la fin de l'article neuf observations générales concernant les taux examinés. Etant donné que les taux d'origine occidentale, analysés ici, ne tiennent pas compte des modifications de prix effectués en U.R.S.S. en 1967 et des changements institutionnels récents, issus des réformes économiques, deux problèmes sont posés : (1) les modifications qui se sont produites après 1955 dans les systèmes américain et soviétique supposent-elles un ajustement en hausse ou en baisse des taux fondés sur les prix de 1955 ? (2) l'applicabilité des déflateurs de prix soviétiques officiels à l'ajustement des taux fondés sur les rapports de prix soviéto-américains de 1955. En tant que cas particulier des indices de prix, un taux rouble/dollar est sujet à toutes les mises en garde usuelles en ce qui concerne ce type d'instrument de l'analyse économique. Malheureusement, les conclusions afférant aux capacités de production, qui peuvent être tirées des indices quantitatifs résultant de comparaisons binaires entre deux pays, sont limitées par la situation de l'équilibre concurrentiel. L'article débute par un examen des aspects méthodologiques essentiels des comparaisons binaires entre pays et par l'énumération des caractéristiques et des limites des taux de prix. Ensuite, l'auteur procède à l'analyse comparée d'une sélection de taux de conversion rouble/dollar qui se présente en deux parties. Premièrement, il prend en considération et examine vingt taux de conversion (15 d'origine occidentale et 5 d'origine soviétique), estimés de manière explicite. Ces vingt taux sont comparés dans le Tableau I et s'accompagnent de commentaires critiques. En outre, il propose deux taux de conversion implicites, concernant les biens de production durables et estimés sur la base de données soviétiques. Dans la seconde partie, l'auteur évalue ces vingt taux (voir Tableau II) en fonction de six critères : connaissance de la manière dont on les a calculés, objectifs, type et caractère adéquat de la méthode utilisée, détermination des prix, déterminations des pondérations, pondérations utilisées. L'étude se termine par les principales conclusions suivantes : 1) Sauf rares exceptions, les méthodes employées par les divers auteurs n'étaient pas suffisamment connues pour permettre d'adopter la série requise de taux de conversion rouble/dollar pour la comparaison des économies soviétique et américaine en général ou en termes d'un effort spécifique (budget de la défense, investissements dans la recherche...) ; 2) Pratiquement tous les taux de conversion occidentaux, présentés dans le Tableau I, sont fondés ou utilisent les résultats d'une étude de Becker, effectuée sur un échantillon de prix soviétiques de 1955 pour les biens de production durables. Cependant, les rapports de prix de 1955 n'ont plus qu'un intérêt historique depuis les révisions de 1967 et les transformations institutionnelles, accompagnant en U.R.S.S. les réformes économiques. De toute évidence, les temps sont mûrs pour une étude détaillée, fondée sur les prix soviétiques actuels et les données concernant la production afin de calculer une nouvelle série de rapports de prix pour les biens de production durables, qui servira à étayer des taux de conversion rouble/dollar acceptables ; 3) Pour huit raisons au moins, y compris des données fragmentaires découvertes dans la littérature soviétique, on peut supposer que les taux réels ont pu être supérieurs à ceux de 1955 ; 4) Dans les sources occidentales aussi bien que soviétiques, on s'est sérieusement interrogé sur la validité de l'utilisation des indices de prix soviétiques officiels, notamment ceux qui concernent les industries de construction de machines et de travail des métaux, pour ajuster à d'autres années les taux rouble/dollar de 1955. Les principales réserves à l'égard des indices de prix soviétiques se rapportent aux méthodes utilisées pour leur calcul et au caractère limité de l'échantillonnage.
Christian Pelras This article results from an investigation about the origins of the first book ever published in the West in the last quarter of the XVIIth century about South Sulawesi, then a place quite out-of-the-way except for a handful of Dutch traders and perhaps a few Portuguese smugglers as well as for very occasional stranded travellers. In any case, none of these could possibly have provided the wealth of detailed and accurate details which the book is teeming with and which can only have been reported by somebody well acquainted with the Makassar language and society (although with a shallow historical knowledge). From research about the author, Nicolas Gervaise, a French priest of the Company of the «Missions-Étrangères», whose family background, individual character, and life story might provide fantastic materials for a talented biographer, it appears that, although he did travel to the East, this was in quality of prospective pupil at the French Catholic Seminary of Ayuthia, and that he never travelled beyond the Kingdom of Siam from where he was sent back home in 1685 by his superiors. On his return he set to write a Natural and Political History of the Kingdom of Siam, in which he displays the usual prejudice over, and no particular knowledge of, the cultures of the Muslim peoples such as the Malays, the Cham and the Makassar then living in Ayuthia. Probably at the time the latter book was sent to press, Nicolas Gervaise was appointed the private tutor of two young Makassar princes called Daéng Ruru and Daéng Tulolo (aged 14 and 13 years) who had arrived in Paris in September 1687. They appear to have been the sole survivors of a rebellion which their father Karaéng Mangallé had led the previous year against the Siamese King Phra Narai. Taken on the battlefield with their arms in hand they were however, due to their young age, not put to death but confided to the representative of the French East India Company who sent them to the French King Louis XIV for their education. As Gervaise published his Historical description of the Makassar kingdom a few months only after having been put in charge of the two youths, they seem to have been his main informants, although there is some evidence that some supplementary information may have had another origin. Of the subsequent life story of these so-called « Indian » princes with French- Makassar names (Louis-Pierre Daén Rourou de Macassar and Louis-Dauphin Daén Toulolo de Macassar), much still remains to be brought to light. From what is already known, one can point to the fact that they were raised in the best college of their time in Paris together with the flower of the French society, that they received all their life long an allowance directly taken from the French King's civil list, and that they were later admitted in the most prestigious French Naval Academy with the best titled French nobility, thus showing their full acceptance as aristocrats among others aristocrats, without apparently suffering the slightest trace of any racial prejudice.
The crisis of authority in the U.S.S.R. (1988 - July 1991). After a preliminary reference to the ideological options open to Mikhail Gorbachev, initiator of the break-up of Stalinism, and the mistrust which be inspires, both among some of his opponents as well as among right-wing conservatives, the author considers the recent evolution of the Soviet Union, from the monopoly of Party rule to the difficult birth of a pluralistic regime. He first raises the question of the Party's attitude to perestroika. Article 6 of the Constitution of 1977, which aknowledges the leading role of the Party, was reluctantly annulled by Gorbachev, but annuled it was, thus leaving the way open for pluralism. Condemnation of factionalism within the body of the Party has not prevented the emergence of various "tendencies" (particularly the democratic Platform and the marxist Platform) which find official expression. Similarly, political and social groupings, independent of authority, began to proliferate : from groupings moved by a common principle, for example tne Safeguarding of the national heritage, or the defense of the environment, they rapidly became popular fronts, lending the system a de facto pluralism which would only later enjoy a de jure existence. This spontaneous development took shape first of all in the Baltic countries, and then with increasing momentum spread to all the republics. In parallel with this, the communist Party leadership initiated a reform of the political system, which found expression in the semi-free elections of March 1989, marked by the defeat of various party and State notables. This was the beginning of a multi-party system, there having been two major opposing tendencies during the campaign for the regional elections in the spring of 1990 : the democratic Russia bloc (liberal) and the patriotic Russian bloc (conservative), surrounded by a multiplicity of organizations of the most diverse and constantly evolving tendencies. The charge levelled against them is that they have no autonomous ideas or initiative, and have only one single programme : mass rejection of the Party apparatus. Some observers are of the opinion that a deep schism will develop within the CPSU, and that this will give rise to a real multi-party system. The first stage of this development has just begun, with the movement for democratic reforms, which was launched in July 1991 by frontline reformers. The other major problem which arises is that of the preservation or the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The authority of the Center is in question, and already six republics have decided to leave the union, proclaiming their sovereignty loud and long (the three Baltic states, Armenia, Georgia and Moldavia). But although the right of scission is officially acknowledged, its implementation is a vast battleground (see the law of 3rd April 1990). The upsurge of centrifugal forces has led the republics, one after the other, to proclame their sovereignty (primacy of republican laws over federal laws, economic autonomy, ownership of the soil and mineral deposits, etc.) or their outright indépendance. Autonomous Republics and territories followed suit, opposing the authorities of the republics to which they belonged. Inter-ethnic conflict broke out all over. The dispute over federal authority led to a "way over laws", setting the Centre at odd with republics resolved to insist on recognition of their rights (ownership of all the ressources found on their territory, freedom to exploit these resources, etc.). In this context, the question of finance and the budget had pride of place, together with that of material and technological supplies. The entire supply system was disorganized, with the republics refusing to carry out the orders of the State, or to deliver consumers' goods outside of their frontiers, in order to avoid a worsening of their own shortages. The Soviet government tried to combat the supply problems, at least in part, by setting up commodity markets. A series of economic programms was worked out, including V. Pavlov's anti-crisis plan (April 1991) which was adopted by the Supreme Soviet of the USSR, but it is not entirely clear how the economic responsabilities will be apportioned among the Central authorities, the republics and the lower-rank administrative bodies, and what will be the share of the state and private sectors. Also, it is not known how he proposes to overcome the present crisis, and how long this will take. Another major source of discord is the army and the police. The republics demand the right to raise armed forces, and to assume the responsability for maintaning order within their territory. Certain of them, who have been the victims of attacks by the special forces of the Ministry of Interior, the OMON, have organized militias and defense groups, wich are virtually republican armies in embryo. In the end, there was an overriding necessity for redefining the Union, and the first version of the new Union Treaty was adopted by referendum on the 17th March 1991. A slightly modified version of it was published on the 19th June, but neither the one nor the other gives a very clear idea of the respective areas of competence and the common areas of competence of the Centre and the constituent republics of the Union (and still less of the fate in store for secessionist republics). On the other hand, one can be sure that the Treaty will be the source of innumerable controversies and disputes, especially on the particularly explosive issue of the budget, taxation and the distribution of ressources. In the final part, the author ventures some thoughts on the future. He sets perestroika in the continuing context of the history of the Russian empire, recalling that the demands made (individual freedoms and democracy, self-determination and decolonization) were already those of the protagonists of the Russian democratic revolution of February-March 1917, which was "taken over" by the Bolshevik coup d'Etat. Now that the empire has fallen victim to its contradictions and weaknesses, and finally disintegrated, what will take its place ? The cure prescribed by the Union Treaty seems ill-adapted to the task, and several outcomes are possible : a resolute commitment to the way of democracy and decolonization, a return to an authoritarian régime but one establishing a market economy, the option of passivity while waiting for a solution "which will come of itself, or a return to thorough-going, tough dictatorship accompanied by a blood bath. If Gorbachev does not once more take his courage in both hands, and proceeds to decolonize the empire, however slow and piecemeal the process, others will do it for him. And in that case, we may fear the worst.