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Forecasting and politics. The Politician's Opinion. The position of politicians varies as regards the forecasting process according to administrative structures and political traditions. On the basis of his experience as administrator and politician in Denmark, the author believes that a study of the relations between forecasting and planning makes it possible to throw some light on the specificity of political issues. Forecasting is defined as study and evaluation of future developments in a given field. Planning is a comparison between various options of development and the choice of an optimum. The typical function of the politician is to decide on the avenues to be explored and the option to be chosen. Yet it is quite debatable where to draw a line between targets and means. The politician's role is not limited to the choice of the first while leaving it to the administrator to look after the second. Finally, the politician's attitude is ambivalent : it is not possible to rely completely on forecasting and planning for solving problems, but it is necessary to strive for an as transparent as possible presentation of public debate.

AbstractThe distinction between the international refugee status and the national legal position as a refugee is important. The decision is based on different legal sources and taken by different competent bodies. Furthermore, different procedures should apply to the two different questions. In practice, however, the recognition procedure is often one and the same. The relation between the refugee and the country of asylum is the most important relation and this is where most problems come up. It is a serious problem, if states refuse to grant the international refugee status in order to regulate for instance the labour market. Furthermore, there is a legal dichotomy which may create difficulties in the fact that international law such as for instance the Refugee Convention of 1951 often regulates the international refugee status, as well as the legal position as a refugee in national law. In practice, the international rules apply only if a person has been recognized as belonging to the category of people defined as refugees. This is not logic, because the recognition as a refugee is declaratory not constructive. This is important, not just from a legal point of view, but also because of diplomatic and political considerations concerning the relationship between the country of asylum and the refugee's own country. The material question of defining who is a refugee is established in international treaties which also define the competence for recognizing refugee status. This competence lies with the potential country of Asylum. At the same time, however, the competence of recognizing a refugee under the statute of the UNHCR lies with the High Commissioner. This inconsistency, however, has not in practical terms led to too many unfortunate results. It is quite normal that it is left to the states to interprete international law embodied in the principle of autointerpretaion. Autointerpretation, however, does not include a right to autodecision. The interpretation which states attach to international law has to be acceptable for the international community and the spokesmen of the international community in this respect is Unied Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. While the material problems and the problems of competence are regulated in international treaties, these treaties are, however, silent about the procedure for recognition. Very few states have a formalized procedure for the recognition of refugee status. One argument, which has been put forward, is that national authorities are reluctant to recognize the international refugee status of a person, because this recognition will have effects in other countries particularly concerning entry and status in these other countries. The author suggests that even if it is desirable for the individual refugee that his status as a refugee is recognized once and for all by all contracting parties to the Refugee Convention, it appears obvious that the conventions leave it to each state to decide on the refugee status in relation to the individual refugee as well as in relation to other states. This legal situation has drawbacks, but it means on the other hand that states cannot deny refugee status with reference to the practice of other states. The author furthermore suggests that international harmonization of the recognition procedures is desirable probably only from a political point of view, namely that states in the same region solve the problems in common so that no single state escapes its international responsibility by a particularly restrictive practice. A harmonization does not appear to be necessary out of considerations for the individual refugee, and it would probably be impossible. Certain elements should, however, be included in every recognition procedure. As far as the evaluation of facts is concerned it is quite difficult to establish judicial or administrative bodies to deal effectively with this side of the problem. The author refers to the Danish solution according to which cases are referred to the Danish Refugee Council which is a private organization for the elucidation of facts involved in the case. The Council is in a position much more freely than the official administration to use its private international connection to receive information which is beyond the judicial official administrative system. As far as the legal aspects are concerned it is necessary that there is a close contact with the international community in order to make sure that the decision of the state is acceptable to the international community. The author points out that the decision of a person's international status as a refugee is a decision for life. It is therefore necessary that at least as many legal safeguards are included in this decision as in ordinary judical proceedings. Decisions should be made by legal authorities independent of the political structure. The legal guarantees should ensure that the decision is made by persons who are independent of the political power structure, that legal counsel is offered the applicant, that there is a possibility of appeal and that the decisions and proceedings to the widest possible extent are public. If there is not complete harmony between national and international law, it will be up to the national courts to point out that there is a breach of an international obligation. According to normal practice in the Nordic countries, the court will probably go far in constructing the national rules in conformity with the international obligations. Three points in conclusion and for debate: — A person's international refugee status is something that primarily comes out of international rules and the only purpose of the recognition procedure is to establish this in relation to the country of asylum. The decision is legal and should be taken in legal forms. A person's international refugee status and the legal position which a country normally gives refugees should not be confused.

Economic and Spatial Organization of a Prehistoric Peasant Community: the Group of Fontbouisse in Bas-Languedoc.

The Chalcolithic is a period in the prehistory of agrarian societies which is caracterized in the Bas-Languedoc by the development of highly organized peasant communities: the group of Fontbouisse which builts villages whose houses have dried-mud stone walls. These concentrated settlements are located according to an elaborated economic system based on grain cultivation and rational management of a mixt stock-breeding. Through the investigation of the sites it becomes possible to understand the economic and thus the spatial logic of this peasant community; the author tries to demonstrate its social cohesion by pointing out the existence of a basic cell, i.e. the village unit. He shows that the origins of ager, saltus and syloa can be found in the ways the exploited areas are distributed. He insulates them in each type of villages, the parameters of which he defines after having studied about 200 of them (20 to 25 units /100 km2). This paper sets the premisses of a broader analysis on spatial organizations of the modes of prehistoric production (village unit, production unit, sedentariness, spatial cell of economic development).

In the postwar history of the Dutch-language daily press in Belgium, the late fifties, marked by a trend !towards concentration, and the latter part of the seventies, notorious by the bankrupties of several newspapers, stand out as eras of turbulence. It is two particularly significant events occurring during the latter period, i.c. the 1976 insolvency of the prestigeous «Standaard» papers and that of «Volksgazet» two years later, which this article focuses upon. In his analysis of causes and suggested/chosen solutions, the author highlights the political rather than the economic dimension of the events and their aftermaths, given that each of the failing newspapers - and -hence their survival - mattered politically, i.c. to the Christian Democrats and the Socialist party respectively. Central to this is the question of the measures considered/taken by the Belgian c.q. Flemish political authorities for having the newspapers. The course of events in each case is examined and the differences in terms of causal factors and measures taken/ omitted are noted. In the final analysis, the question arises as -to the relationship between certain political figures or groups on the one hand, and government agencies, which both «Volksgazet» and particularly the «Standaard» titles were heavily indebted to, on the other hand.

The theme of this paper is that the content, form, location and social role of utopia vary with the material conditions in which people live. These variations have been obscured by definitions of utopia in terms of its function in catalysing social change, which has also produced the illusion that the contemporary Western world lacks utopias. By defining utopia with reference to its meaning to author and audience as an expression of their desires and aspirations, it is possible to trace a series of shifts in the English utopia, to relate these to one another and to the social context, and to show that the `absence' of contemporary utopias is simply another transformation of this kind. From being a spatially-located wish-fantasy, utopia moved through the function of social criticism to being a temporally-located catalyst of social change. These changes depended on perceptions of society-in-time as increasingly malleable and open to human control, culminating in the nineteenth century belief in progress. Utopia now appears to have reverted to the role of wish-fantasy as a result of a prevalent fatalism and a shift away from an evolutionary perspective, a change which, paradoxically, allows it to be more utopian by tying it less closely to reality. Utopia as a catalyst of social change depends on an optimism which is now absent.

Throughout his distinguished career, Herbert Gutman has displayed a rare genius for dredging up the most gloriously obscure historical evidence and deriving from it new perspectives on the largest themes. The Black Family is another triumph of this kind: my awe of Professor Gutman's energy and insight is enhanced by this volume. At the same time, Gutman makes clear that the volume is not demographic in its intent. Since my commentary is to be from a demographic perspective, I will take particular pains to direct this perspective to the purposes Gutman sets forth in The Black Family. These are identified by the author as discerning "what sustained common slave beliefs and behavior," rather than merely documenting "regularities in behavior," the latter being Gutman's characterization of the results of the application of quantitative methods (1976). My task, then, is to examine the links that Gutman establishes between demographic argument and explanation, in his sense, and to assess their adequacy. No demographer, I suspect, would have undertaken the kind of investigation Gutman assays; but demographic skills would have served Gutman's intentions. I will here try to be severe with this imposing volume, recognizing the importance and aptness of its central thesis, and the audacity of its author's empirical reach, but questioning the adequacy of his demography to his own ends.

Government Service as a Profession, Brisbane, Queensland Regional Group of the Royal Institute of Public Administration, 1978K. WINDOW, Local Government Reform, Brisbane, Queensland Group of the Royal Institute of Public Administration, 1978JAMES M. BUCHANAN and RICHARD E. WAGNER, FiscalResponsibility in Constitutional Democracy, Leiden and Boston, Studies in Public Choice, No. I, Martinus Nijhoff, 1978Y. FORTIN, Le Controle de I'Administration Economique en Grand‐Bretagne, Paris, Editions du CNRS, 1978Ethics in Public Administration: A Bibliography, Canberra, Public Service Board, 1979R. N. SPANN, Government Administration in Australia, Sydney, Allen & Unwin, 1979COLIN PRITCHARD and RICHARD TAYLOR, Social Work: Reform or Revolution?R. T. GOLEMBIEWSKI and M. COHEN, People in Public Service: A Reader in Public Personnel Administration, Illinois, Peacock Publishers Inc., 1976CLAUDIA D. SCOTT, Local and Regional Government in New Zealand: Function and FinanceR. M. BURNS, Intergovernmental Fiscal Transfers: Canadian and Australian Experiences, Canberra, The Australian National University Centre for Research on Federal Financial Relations, Research Monograph No. 22 1977ALBERT BRETON and ANTHONY SCOTT, The Economic Consrirurion of Federal Stares, Canberra, Australian National University Press, 1978Bureau of Transport Economics, A Discussion Paper of Transport Planning in Sydney to 1975, Canberra, AGPS, 1978RUSSELL MATHEWS, Australian Federalism 1977, Canberra, The Australian National University Centre for Research on Federal Financial Relations, 1978RICHARD L. DAFT and SELWYN W. BECKER, Innovarion in Organizations. Innovation Adoption in School Organizations, New York, Elsevier, 1978RICHARD LEHNE, The Quest for Justice. The Politics of School Finance Reform, New York, Longmans, 1978JEAN I. MARTIN, The Migrant Presence. Australian Responses 1947–1977, Sydney, George Allen & Unwin, Studies in Society series No. 2, 1978H. WHITMORE and M. ARONSON, Review of Administrative Action, Sydney, The Law Book Co., 1978R. A. WILD, Social Strarification in Ausrralia, Sydney, George Allen & Unwin Australia Ltd., Studies in Society series No. 3,1978ADAM GRAYCAR, Social Policy: An Australian Inrroducrion, Melbourne, Macmillan, 1977DAVID SOLOMON, Inside rhe Australian Parfiamenr, Sydney, George Allen and Unwin, 1978J. R. HAY, The Development of rhe British Werfare Srare. 1880–1975, London, Edward Arnold, 1978INA BERTRAND, Film Censorship in Australia, St. Lucia, University of Queensland Press, 1978BRUCE MUIRDEN, When Power Wenr Public: a Study in Expediency: the nationalisation of the Adelaide Electric Supply Co., Bedford Park, APSA, Politics, Flinders University, 1978ANDREW LEMON (ed.), Archives Conference Proceedings, 1977, Australian Society of Archivists, P.O. Box 83, O'Connor 2601, 1978H. C. COOMBS, Kulinma: Listening to Aboriginal Australians, Canberra, Australian National University Press, 1979DIANA CLOSE, LOULA RODOPOULOS, JENNIE M. BRIGGS, and ELISABETH GAWITH, Interviewing Immigrants: Developing Research in the Australian Context, Melbourne, Clearing House on Migration Issues, 1978

Recent English language literature on the work of Sardinian Marxist Antonio Gramsci is reviewed & found limited in scope & often mistaken in its conclusions. Although each author provides a complete, in-depth analysis of Gramsci's thought, no serious attempt has been made to evaluate his ideas. Particularly examined is their treatment of Gramsci's theory of hegemony as an explanation of social order in the West, whether his proposed strategies are likely to be effective, whether Gramsci is but one of many Marxist authoritarians, & whether he offers a more democratic alternative to Stalinism & Leninism. These areas of contention are clarified & some directions for further research indicated. Gramsci's thought is quite viable today, raising issues of contemporary importance & providing provocative answers to the problem of the gap between Marxist theory & proletarian practice & the question of why socialist praxis does not fit Marxist theory. He opposed fatalistic reliance on economic forces & scientific laws & stressed purposive, creative human action. He understood how advanced capitalism manipulated mass consciousness to control its inherent self-destructive tendencies. Gramsci rejected the Marxist construction of strategy based on the premise that capitalism would inevitably collapse & urged the proletarian movement to develop a complex, prolonged political campaign & to create alliances over a broad range of social strata. He constructed the categories of a genuine Marxist theory of politics, & to him must go much of the credit for the decline of Marxist reductionism & the acceptance of the political in the sphere of Marxist analysis. R. Portwood.

The arena of Brazilian literary criticism during the 1950s was one of heated polemics and angry debates between the "old" and the "new" critics. In many ways, this protracted encounter involved a clash of world views as much as of concepts of literature and criticism. For one thing, the opponents of the nova crítica had a wholly different cast of mind from the new critics. Whether they utilized the reigning impressionistic or sociological approaches to literature and criticism, or whether they were merely dilettantes who dabbled in letters at their leisure, they all tended to view literature in other than a literary framework. To the new critics, this orientation was the same thing as saying that literature was only a satellite responding to the gravitational pull of other forms of knowledge—history, sociology, or psychology, for example. Its main function, therefore, was to illuminate the style of an epoch or the personality of the author, even that of the critic himself. Such a concept of literature was totally unacceptable to the new critics, who insisted on regarding literature in its own right, as a separate but equal planet in the universe of the intellect. Further, the new and the old critics locked horns over the measure of importance that subjective considerations should be allotted in literary criticism. The former wished to minimize them dramatically, maintaining that criticism was a rational, objective discipline; while the latter objected strenuously to such minimization, holding that criticism was primarily an exercise of the critic's creative imagination. The debate over subjective and objective attitudes in literary study is part of the broader issue of the relative merits of the modern, scientific mode of thought and the traditional, personalist mode that had characterized Brazilian literary criticism.

Military consumption of natural resources is one of the problems which figure prominently in the United Nations' action programme on disarmament and development. Reporting on a study that was initiated in 1975 and which has met with considerable problems in getting access to information, the author presents original data on military-related consumption of energy and minerals in the United States and elsewhere. After the so-called 'oil crisis', decision-makers and strategists have shown increased concern over external supply of strategic resources and have come up with proposals on how to deal with vulnerable supply lines. These and other options are surveyed. It is concluded that the major powers, which are also the principal arms producers and exporters, still may secure supplies by measures, including imperialist practices, at the international level. At the same time, dependence on strategic resources domestically not available may be reduced by measures internal to the importing country. Technological innovations have reduced the relative demand for many minerals and are increasingly making composite materials available for military purposes. Still, the arms race continues to absorb great quantities of a number of non-renewable materials. Due to the close integration of state interests with those of private capital, co-ordination between them is the rule rather than the exception. Purely military-strategic interests may sometimes not coincide completely with those of state or private capital, but usually the latter is 'collecting' the necessary foreign resources for the former through the process of internationalization. These facts make control of supply, for the purpose of restricting or diverting military consumption, difficult — both at the national and the international level. Some such measures of control are presented and discussed, ranging from imposing taxes through regulating trade to supervising armaments industries in the arms-producing countries.

AbstractThere is no official refugee declaration in Sweden. The procedure is the same for asylum seekers and for other aliens applying for residence permissions. It starts with interrogation by the police, the protocole of which is submitted to the Central Immigration Authority, Statens Invandrarverk SIV. A well functioning legal aid system grants the asylum seeker threatened by expulsion free legal counsel and representation from the stage of the police hearing until the case is finally decided. SIV handles the cases in camera without hearings or contradictionary proceedings. This - according to the author - is the root of a certain credibility gap concerning the information available to SIV and how and to what extent it should be communicated to the applicant. The same is said about the interpretation of refugee law tending to be too restrictive. Negative decisions are combined with an order of expulsion. They do often give some explanation of the reasons for the decision. There is an absolute right of appeal to be lodged with the Government within three weeks. In spite of the absence of a refugee declaration there is categorizing into A- or convention refugees — entitled to CTDs, B-refugees and others. This is important for the refugees opportunity to employmant, education etc. but there is no appeal or appropriate remedy in these issues. Considering this and the psychological feeling of safety for the asylum seeker, it is felt that refugee declarations should be introduced in the swedish system. A proposal to establish a special board of appeal for refugee- and other alien cases separated from the Government, has been rejected in Sweden. Therefore the last resort remains the Government, a political instance. This is considered to be to the advantage of refugees - but only as long as the political climate in the country is favourable to them.

Trans-national Firms, the Problems of International Economic Cooperation and the Present-day Imbalance in International Exchange and Payments.
A recapitulation is made of the conditions of exchange in Western countries during and after grave crises or world events (confirmed by History and covering much of the 20th Century). In periods of economic growth, markets have tended toward freer trade but the author emphasizes that these situations have often been at variance with traditional models of free exchange. He considers that from the point of view of the interplay of international négociations and the possibilities for simple cooperation, there is not at the outset, as great a distance between the real conditions of exchange, as far as structures are concerned, as there is when there is a confrontation between ideal types.
First he analyses the process of internationalization and trans-national integration in the Western countries, as well as the change in the character of the international expansion of capital, which is more and more removed from the schémas of the early 20th Century with regard to the major flows of investments (the adjustment between financial and real flow). It is not only necessary to take into account the importance of industrial cooperation, as it is practiced in relations with the East, but also and above all, the modes of intervention and impulsion or the necessary controls, real situations (Sj and S2) and not ideal {S*x and S*2). Would it not be possible to avoid the much feared stalemate through large-scale "multilateralization" which would call for the necessary development of exchanges of all the partners with the others and with the Third World (not to be carried on, however, in a block)?
Despite the conjectures over the danger of any "frictional contacts" or the aggravation of the crisis of capitalism, the question arises as to the compatibility between the respective demands of the firms and the states concerning indebtedness, the foreseeable conditions of ebb and flow, and the malleability of the planning tradition, of its objectives and extrapolations, that is, of the classic division of the two great sectors, etc. The restructuration of exchanges by groups of products as well as the "multilateralization" by groups of countries must be envisaged, so that national preferences in structure (which must be respected) do nos bring about new stalemates to the development of East-West exchanges, already so difficult to achieve.

AbstractThe procedures for recognition of refugees differ considerably from country to country. In Norway residence is on the whole more important than nationality. As in Denmark, the private international law is based on the principle of domicile. In social welfare legislation and with respect to education, formal status - nationality or recognition as a refugee - is of little if any importance. In fact, it is only within the ambit of aliens police law that the question of refugee status is of some consequence. The Norwegian Aliens Act of 27 July 1956 is strongly influenced by the Swedish Aliens Act of 1954. The Act is supplemented by the Aliens Order. Important provisions are found in the Administrative Procedures Act of 1967. The aliens authorities are the police, the State Aliens Office (which is assisted by a State Aliens Council), the Royal Ministry of Justice and Police, and finally the King in Council. There would be no legal hindrance for the Ministry (or the Aliens Office, given the authority) to issue eligibility certificates to refugees. But it is doubtful what legal effect such certificates would have. Today, such certificates are not issued, and the question of refugee status is therefore only determined prejudicially in connexion with applications for asylum or Convention travel documents. According to § 11 of the Act, an alien shall not be refused entry if he can substantiate his claim to be a political refugee, until his case has been presented to the Aliens Office. Against a refusal of entry, he may file an appeal to the said Office, which may instruct that the entry refusal order shall not be effectuated until the appeal has been decided. In any case it is obvious that in connexion with the question of entry refusal, a full-fledged recognition of refugee status is not possible. According to § 2 (1) of the Aliens Act, a political refugee is entitled to asylum, provided that there are no valid reasons to deny it. Applications for asylum are decided by the Ministry, which prejudicially shall have to determine whether the applicant is a political refugee as defined in § 2 (2) of the Act. Against the Ministry's negative decision, it is possible to appeal to the King in Council. Such appeals are frequently successful. - The alternatives to asylum are either leaving the country or being issued with a residence permit on humanitarian grounds. The latter instance corresponds to the status of so-called "B-refugees" in Sweden. As the quality of refugee is merely prejudicially determined, the grant of asylum is not binding on other authorities which may have to make an eligibility determination, but naturally a grant of asylum will carry considerable weight in such situations. Travel documents are issued upon a decision by the Aliens Office. In this case to, the determination of eligibility is just a prejudicial one. A refused request does not necessarily mean that the person in question is not considered a refugee. Just as the grant of asylum, the issue of a travel document creates a presumption in favour of its holder, even if the underlying eligibility determination is not formally binding on other authorities. A special determination of fear of persecution may take place if a person is threatened with deportation or extradition. All administrative decisions are subject to administrative appeal to higher authority. But a final decision may be challanged in a court of law. The question whether a person is a refugee is a question of law. A plaintiff may request a declaratory judgment to the effect that he is a refugee according to the Aliens Act and/or the Refugee Convention and Protocol. But it seems more practical to ask a court to declare the refusal of asylum or a travel document illegal, and to order the authorities to grant the applicant's request. There have not been many court cases concerning refugee status in Norway. But the fact that such cases may be entertained by the courts, adds an interesting dimension to the aliens law of Norway. The author suggests that the Aliens Act ought to be amended so that whenever an alien claims to be a refugee, his case should be considered by the Aliens Office before he is refused entry. It is also suggested that it should be possible to request an eligibility determination pure and simple, and that this question, and also the questions of grant of asylum and grant of a travel document, as well as the question of non-refoulement, ought to be decided by the State Aliens Office in the first instance. In the event of a negative decision, the administrative appeal should be filed in a court of summary jurisdiction (forhørsrett, cf. the French juge d'instruction), which would give an oral hearing to the applicant, his counsel, and a representative of the State, and also hear witnesses and experts, if any. A representative of a refugee aid society might appear as an amicus curiae. The judge would in due course forward the court records and other ducuments to the State Aliens Office, which might reverse its decision or forward the documents to the Ministry for decision. Should the Ministry's decision, too, be negative, the applicant would have the option of suing the State in the City Court of Oslo. The author makes a strong plea for the creation of a Eupean Refugee or Eligibility Appeals Commission within the framework of the Council of Europe. An appeal to this Commission might become an alternative to court proceedings. It might also be possible for national courts to request the Commission's opinion on points of interpretation, somewhat along the lines of Article 177 of the Rome Treaty establishing the European Economic Community. One would then get some uniformity in the application of the Refugee Convention and Protocol in the participating countries, notability with respect to eligibility and non-refoulement. If also the so-called refugees in orbit could appeal to the Commission, it might prove possible to find a solution even to this very pressing humanitarian problem. Perhaps the creation of a European Refugee Commission should be considered the next great challange in the development of refugee law.