Suchergebnisse

Political trust has been considered a necessary condition for good democratic and economic performance over time. The grave economic crisis that started in 2008, which is known as the Great Recession, has deteriorated the level of political trust in several countries. Some authors have shown that those countries with an increasing level of unemployment experienced a sharp decline in political trust. In particular, the political distrust in Spain has suffered a high increase since the Great Recession. This paper tests the procyclicality of political trust in Spain through the analysis and modeling of the relationship between political trust and business cycle in Spain over the period 1996-2015. The cross-correlation analysis, the Granger causality test, and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach coherently conclude the procyclicality of political trust in Spain. The unemployment rate shows a negative and statistically significant influence on political trust four quarters later.

Abstract
Flexicurity is the combination of more flexibility for employers and more security for workers. It is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon that lacks a well-developed monitoring framework or a statistically consistent grouping of the indicators. First, this paper proposes a conceptual framework by building upon the Wilthagen and Tros (2004) flexicurity matrix and the Danish Golden Triangle. It constructs flexicurity "drivers" by pooling together variables that are conceptually related to each other and a specific type of flexibility or security. Then, it obtains statistically consistent aggregate measures for each driver and selects three drivers that represent the three corners of the Danish "golden triangle": external numerical flexibility, employment security, and income security. It conducts an empirical analysis on the evolution of the selected flexicurity drivers over time and across European Union (EU) countries and on the relationship between selected flexicurity drivers and social outcomes from the Social Scoreboard of the European Pillar of Social Rights. It finds evidence of convergence on external numerical flexibility and polarization on employment and income security across the EU. It finds that higher flexibility at the onset of the crisis contributed to a reduction in the unemployment rates after the crisis, while a more generous welfare system contributed to reducing poverty. Employment security, however, appears to be linked to the presence of higher levels of income inequality after the crisis.

Flexicurity is the combination of more flexibility for employers and more security for workers. It is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon that lacks a well-developed monitoring framework or a statistically consistent grouping of the indicators. First, this paper proposes a conceptual framework by building upon the Wilthagen and Tros (2004) flexicurity matrix and the Danish Golden Triangle. It constructs flexicurity 'drivers' by pooling together variables that are conceptually related to each other and a specific type of flexibility or security. Then, it obtains statistically consistent aggregate measures for each driver and selects three drivers that represent the three corners of the Danish 'golden triangle': external numerical flexibility, employment security, and income security. It conducts an empirical analysis on the evolution of the selected flexicurity drivers over time and across European Union (EU) countries and on the relationship between selected flexicurity drivers and social outcomes from the Social Scoreboard of the European Pillar of Social Rights. It finds evidence of convergence on external numerical flexibility and polarization on employment and income security across the EU. It finds that higher flexibility at the onset of the crisis contributed to a reduction in the unemployment rates after the crisis, while a more generous welfare system contributed to reducing poverty. Employment security, however, appears to be linked to the presence of higher levels of income inequality after the crisis.

International tourism is one of the most important economic sectors for the Spanish economy. However, in spite of this importance, there are not many studies that have identified the main determinants of demand for international tourism to Spain. The few existing studies are focused on the analysis of British and German visitors, without paying attention to other important and emerging nationalities, like Russians. Russia is one of the main outbound tourism markets worldwide. The dynamism showed by this market reveals a high potential, and involves a great opportunity for the Spanish tourism sector to increase its participation in the international tourism market. It is for this reason that the main objective of our research is to build a robust econometric model that allows us (i) to determine the most important variables that explain the Russian demand for tourism to Spain, and (ii) to quantify the impacts of these variables on this tourism demand. Our results show the importance of economic factors, such as the income of Russians, the relative cost of living in Spain with respect to Russia, and the relative cost of living in Spain with respect to other competing countries to attract Russian visitors. Our results also show the importance of certain specific events such as the terrorist attacks of ETA and the 11-M, the riots in some Arab countries of the Mediterranean basin, and the change in the visa policy between the European Union and Russia. ; El turismo internacional se ha convertido en uno de los principales sectores económicos en España. Sin embargo, a pesar de esta importancia, no hay muchos estudios que hayan analizado los determinantes de la demanda internacional a España. Los pocos estudios existentes se han centrado en el análisis de visitantes alemanes y británicos, obviando otras nacionalidades importantes y emergentes como la rusa. Rusia es uno de los principales mercados emisores de turismo a nivel mundial. El dinamismo mostrado por este mercado revela una elevada potencialidad y supone una gran oportunidad para que el sector turístico español aumente su participación en el mercado del turismo internacional. Es por esta razón que el principal objetivo de nuestra investigación es: a) conocer las variables más importantes que expliquen la demanda de turistas rusos a España, y b) cuantificar los impactos de estas variables en base a un modelo econométrico robusto. Los resultados obtenidos muestran la importancia de los factores económicos como la renta de los rusos, la de los costes relativos de la vida en España respecto a Rusia y los costes relativos de la vida en España respecto a una serie de países competidores por atraer el turismo ruso. También se pone de manifiesto la importancia de ciertos eventos puntuales como pueden ser los atentados de ETA y del 11-M, las revueltas en algunos países árabes de la cuenca mediterránea y el cambio en la política de visados entre la Unión Europea y Rusia

AbstractThis paper studies the population growth dynamics in European NUTS3 regions over the period of 2000–2015 and offers generalizable evidence on the main drivers of population change at this sub‐level of analysis, which is so far rather unexplored. Results obtained by means of a spatial Durbin model highlight the roles of economic and demographic regional conditions in shaping population dynamics and the minor role of geography and environmental conditions. The fact that geographical polarization of population is occurring, which might result in an increase in regional imbalances, calls for policy actions in mitigating this phenomenon.