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Abstract
This study adopts a historical perspective to investigate variations in output volatility within and across world economies. The analysis uses annual data for 37 OECD and non-OECD countries covering the last two centuries. We focus on the relationship between inflation and output volatility. The results of a panel analysis show a positive effect of inflation on output volatility. This finding is consistent with the view that low inflation has a stabilizing effect on output volatility over the long term.

AbstractThis paper analyzes the dynamic effects of economic disasters, captured by cumulative decline in output of at least 10% over 1 or more years, on disposable income inequality of a sample of 99 countries over the annual period of 1960–2017. Based on impulse response functions derived from a robust local projections method, we find that economic disasters increase inequality by 4%, with the overall effect being statistically significant and highly persistent over a period of 20 years following the shock. When we repeat the analysis by categorizing the 99 countries based on income groups and regions, we find that the strongest effects are felt by high-income countries (8%), and in Europe, Central Asia and North America (16%) taken together, as primarily driven by ex-socialist economies. Though of lesser magnitude, statistically significant increases in inequality are also observed for low-, and upper-middle-income economies, and the regions of Latin America and Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and South Asia, and to some extent also for Sub-Saharan Africa. Our findings have important policy implications. Our findings suggest that the avoidance of economic crises is of paramount importance to ensure the sustainability of the welfare state, which in turn would allow for sound redistributive policies to reduce inequality, which can also help in indirectly reducing the negative impact of rare disasters on asset markets. In other words, our results have both economic and financial implications.

The trade effects of exchange rate variability have been an issue in international economics for the past 30 years. The contribution of this paper is to apply meta-regression analysis (MRA) to the empirical literature. On average, exchange rate variability exerts a negative effect on international trade. Yet MRA confirms the view that this result is highly conditional, by identifying factors that help to explain why estimated trade effects vary from significantly negative to significantly positive. MRA evidence on the pronounced heterogeneity of the empirical findings may be instructive for policy: first, by establishing that average trade effects are not sufficiently robust to generalise across countries; and, second, by suggesting the importance of hedging opportunities - hence of financial development - for trade promotion. For the practice of MRA, we make a case for checking the robustness of results with respect to estimation technique, model specification and sample.