Suchergebnisse

After huge number of landslide events in Serbia during 2006 (some of them with catastrophic damage on households), Belgrade City Government has initiated defining a strategy for landslide damage prevention. City Government and Assembly adopted suggested proposal to finance new landslide inventory, since the old inventory has been made 30 years ago. By project proposal, task was to create modern landslide inventory in a GIS oriented software for Belgrade General Plan area (approx. 360 km2 with more than 1,2 mil. population). All noted landslides were categorized by level of hazard and risk of their activation. This information system and landslide database should enable continuous monitoring of the landslide processes and possibility of early warning system development. Such information should be at disposal to: planners, investors and builders. In others words, it should enable rational landslide risk management. Inventory should also enable possibility to define priorities objectively, which would ease the management effort of the local authorities, when preventing and stabilizing active landslides or protecting affected structures. Basic goals for creating a new inventory were: to archive all documentation of Belgrade landslides in one place and to make data publically available; to collect data in digital form (database) in order to have them continuously updated during time; to make a database searchable by various parameters which are crucial for city governance (by municipality location, different urban zones, infrastructure locations etc.); to generate full .pdf or .doc format reports with quality data about inventoried landslides (with included maps, diagrams, laboratory data, core sampling etc); to provide local decision makers with information on priorities in landslide investigations for civil engineer projects or for landslide prevention and remediation, in different stages of project design. Landslide inventory was funded by Belgrade Land Development Public Agency and it was developed by University of Belgrade, Faculty of Mining and Geology science/research team with support of numerous external associates, experts in different geological engineering disciplines. During two and a half years of developing and field investigations the following has been done: collecting, systematization, critical analysis and reinterpretation of available landslide data; photogeological analysis of terrain; additional field investigations engineering-geological mapping and reambulation; creation of land stability maps; landslide hazard and risk assessment; developing and programming information system and database for inventory; inputting collected data into digital inventory and alpha-testing of developed application. Digital landslide inventory with database and information system for Belgrade General Plan area was made during 2008-2010 yr. 1150 individual landslides were registered and for each of them the following information has been added to the database: location, geological conditions, existing exploration works and their results and works on prevention and stabilization. Beside geological and engineering-geological data, various datasets important for decision makers and City Government branches have been inputted in the database. These included: 89 sheets of Belgrade topographic maps (scale 1:5000, in raster .jpg and .tif format); orthophoto images of Belgrade with 30 cm resolution; Complex Geological map of Belgrade (digitalized from sheets in 1:10000 scale); 89 scanned maps from old landslide inventory (scale 1:5000, in raster .jpg and .tif format); photogeological map for comparing data in time series. Final product was land stability map with generated level of landslide hazard and risk. Inventory was created as tool/sub-shell inside ArcGIS© software, with localization on Serbian language (Latin script).

The need for smart sustainable urban solutions has never been greater than it is today. Master plan (MP) represents rather significant document for a city development and the City of Belgrade has a tradition and long history of development under MP framework (Djuric et al 2013). Current MP (Fig. 1), made by the Urban Planning Institute of Belgrade, has been adopted in 2003 and refers to the development period by the year of 2021 (http://www.urbel.com/default.aspx?ID=uzb_BG_planovi&LN=ENG). On the other hand the City of Belgrade is facing a rapid urban sprawl so suburbanization problem is particularly pronounced. Since MP is following the current needs of the city, active subjects of economic development as well as urban municipalities, there is strong initiative to expand its current extents for the suburb areas. Among other significant points of the MP, determination of the Land-Use Suitability (LUS) is considered to be one of the foremost planning references. LUS analysis is a tool used to define future land uses or their potential. Suitability techniques enable environmental managers, planners and engineers to analyze the interactions among various factors. Decision makers and developers can use the outputs to set policies and make decisions regarding the use of land. Contemporary environmental managers and planners are aware of the technological advancements in land-use allocation and suitability modelling. New methods of spatial analysis are now commonly used in the development of land-use plans, environmental impact reviews, and site selection studies for many different land uses and public and private facilities (Collins, 2001). The earliest applications of suitability analysis conducted by engineering geologists and civil engineers for Belgrade MP area, in form of hand-drawn sieve mapping overlays was done by Šutić et al. (1972). Later, numerous researchers performed similar suitability analysis for different purposes (urban planning, defining best/optimal road routes etc). First work involving suitability analysis in GIS environment has been done in 2009/2010 (Marjanović, 2009; Djurić, 2010), but none for Belgrade area. This paper introduces a new approach and represents in fact, a pioneering work performed for the City of Belgrade. It represents how available thematic data, processed in GIS environment, can be and was used for LUS assessment. One of the statistical methods involving the Conditional Probability (CP) approach with the Weight of Evidence technique, has been used. Conventional methods on the other hand, are still needed to validate the outcomes and to calibrate these GIS-based methods, which are still to be developed and perfected. There was a strong motif supporting this research, since in-charged City's government services have shown interest in extending the Master Plan (MP) to the Belgrade suburb areas.