Suchergebnisse

Croatian National Bank is not targeting inflation but exchange rate as the nominal anchor or intermediary goal of monetary policy and inflation
in Croatia is a dominantly foreign driven phenomenon. Using monthly data on CPI in Croatia from January 1997 up to November 2015, ARIMA (0,1,1) x (0,1,1)12 model is fitted as the one describing CPI behavior pattern and therefore reliable for CPI forecasting. Furthermore, to establish its volatility pattern several ARCH family models are tested and ARCH (1) model is found to be the best fitted one in explaining CPI volatility development in Croatia.

Membership in the European Union is the aspiration of the most European countries, especially the underdeveloped and politically still unstable, former socialist countries. Those countries strives to find economic prosperity and political stability in the EU, despite many constraints of economic and political nature. In order to help solve the problem and ensure the more successful adaptation the EU has created special financial instruments to assist candidate countries, where each country is responsible for its own progress and withdrawal of available funds. This work will search all important determinants of use of EU Pre-Accession Funds in SEE countries taking into account features and specifics of each program, as well as problems these countries are facing with. The main purpose and aim of this paper is to explore the absorption capacities of candidate countries and potential candidate countries of SEE in withdrawing funds from EU pre-accession funds. Bearing in mind the political and economic specificities, special attention will be given to its absorption capacities and the possibilities for their improvement in the existing institutional and economic framework.

Hrvatska narodna banka ne temelji monetarnu politiku na ciljanju inflacije te devizni tečaj služi kao intermedijarni cilj i temelj vođenja monetarne politike u Republici Hrvatskoj. Inflacija u Republici Hrvatskoj dominantno je određena stopama inflacije u inozemstvu. Na uzorku mjesečnih podataka o indeksu potrošačkih cijena u Republici Hrvatskoj od siječnja 1997. do studenog 2015., prilagođen je ARIMA (0,1,1) x (0,1,1)12 model koji opisuje dinamiku kretanja indeksa potrošačkih cijena u Republici Hrvatskoj. Procijenjeni model se može koristiti za pouzdano prognoziranje kretanja potrošačkih cijena u Republici Hrvatskoj. Nadalje, kako bi se istražile karakteristike promjenjivosti indeksa potrošačkih cijena testirano je nekoliko ARCH modela. Provedeni testovi su pokazali da ARCH (1) model najbolje objašnjava promjenjivost indeksa potrošačkih cijena u Republici Hrvatskoj. ; Croatian National Bank is not targeting inflation but exchange rate as the nominal anchor or intermediary goal of monetary policy and inflation in Croatia is a dominantly foreign driven phenomenon. Using monthly data on CPI in Croatia from January 1997 up to November 2015, ARIMA (0,1,1) x (0,1,1)12 model is fitted as the one describing CPI behavior pattern and therefore reliable for CPI forecasting. Furthermore, to establish its volatility pattern several ARCH family models are tested and ARCH (1) model is found to be the best fitted one in explaining CPI volatility development in Croatia.

Dužnički financijski instrumenti su specifične zbog komponente dospijeća koju sadržavaju te stoga konvencionalni pristupi u procjeni njihovih volatilnost mogu biti neprimjereni. Rad je usmjeren na modeliranje i prognoziranje volatilnosti cijene dužničkih vrijednosnih papira uzimajući u obzir komponentu njihovog dospijeća. U radu se uzima u obzir ovisnost volatilnosti dužničkog vrijednosnog papira o njegovom dospijeću i predlaže jednostavna i primjenjiva tehnike procjene volatilnosti uz željeni interval pouzdanosti. Korištenjem predloženog pristupa u radu su provedene procjene volatilnosti dužničkih vrijednosnih papira denominiranih eurima kao i u kunama koje je izdala Republika Hrvatska. ; Debt-based financial instruments are specific due to the maturity component and conventional approaches in estimating their volatility may not be applicable. This paper focuses on modeling and forecasting price volatility of sovereign debt instruments while taking into account their maturity. In doing so we propose a simple and useful technique for obtaining the desired confidence of volatility estimates. The proposed approach provides price volatility estimates for debt instruments issued by Croatian government denominated in HRK and in EUR.

Instruments for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA) are one of the most important instruments fo EU development and regional policy avaliable to the candidate countries for EU accession. Enlargement of EU can cause, what already can be seen, considerable problems. Especially when the level of economic development is lower in some new member states and candidate countries than in " old " EU member states. Amon these countries are also western Balkan countries which use IPA funds (IPA I and IPA II) to solve problems caused by lack of money on national, regional nad city level as well as for the citizens. The aim of this paperwork is to explain what the European Commission has done by analyzing experiences in the utilizing IPA I funds. In the paper work we try to explain the new conditions, beside indispensable Stabilisation and Association Agreement, for programming and absorbing IPA funds that should increase impacts of financial and technical support for achievement of reform goals, particulary emphasising EU 2020 Strategy for smart, suinstable and inclusive development.