Suchergebnisse

This note summarizes the results of a social Cost–Benefit Analysis (CBA) of the High Luminosity upgrade of the Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC). The social CBA methodology is well-suited to assess social costs and benefits of the HL-LHC up to 2038. The analysis shows that the ratio between incremental benefits and incremental costs of the HL-LHC with respect to operating the LHC under normal consolidation (i.e. without high-luminosity upgrade) is slightly over 1.7, meaning that each Swiss Franc invested in the HL-LHC upgrade project pays back approximately 1.7 CHF in societal benefits. The rest of the note is organized as follows. We first discuss the merits of CBA; next, we present the methodology and discuss the results.

We study the performance of tests of distributional symmetry based on the coefficient of skewness and on L-moments and present a bootstrap implementation of such tests that is suitable in time series applications. We show with Monte Carlo simulations that both tests are correctly sized – provided that their null distribution is approximated with the bootstrap – and that the procedure based on L-moments has more power than that based on the conventional coefficient of skewness. An empirical application analyses the symmetry of business cycles for the G7 countries implementing tests of symmetry as tools to investigate time reversibility.

Public procurement from Big Science Centers (BSCs) yields a variety of spillover effects that can ultimately have growth enhancing consequences for their Member States (MS). We study the determinants of procurement for the biggest research infrastructure ever built: the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN. A unique database of firms that have registered to become industrial partners of the LHC program allows us to estimate the determinants for potential suppliers of receiving an order from CERN. We compare the relative weight of firms' technological features and CERN's procurement rules aimed at securing a juste retour for its MS. While, in accordance to CERN's procurement rules our results highlight the role of both technological factors and political constraints, we also show the existence of a premium toward Swiss and French firms. We document that the constraints related with the achievement of a juste retour affect -- directly or indirectly -- the procurement policy of many European BSCs and international bodies whose budget is financed by the public funds of their MS. Therefore, our results have policy implications that go beyond our empirical application.

Over the period 2015–2050 the consumption of natural gas of European OECD countries is expected to grow more than the consumption of any other energy source. Although these countries are interconnected and in most cases share a common currency, their wholesale national gas markets are highly heterogeneous. We study the determinants of cross-country convergence of natural gas prices for industrial consumers in fourteen European countries. Our empirical analysis is based on the notions of pairwise, relative and σ-convergence. We show that there is evidence of pairwise price convergence and that some key characteristics of gas markets, such as the existence of trading hubs and the degree of interconnection, are positively associated with the existence of a convergence process. This result carries over to the notion of σ-convergence and is robust to a number of changes in the implementation of the statistical tests. The analysis of relative convergence points to the existence of price-growth convergence, while price-level convergence is not supported by the data. Lastly, we assess the short-run implications of price convergence focusing on the speed of reversion to equilibrium after a system-wide shock hits the cointegrating relation.

Preliminary evidence on the long-run trajectory of the accelerator industry suggests that it may be close to the maturity phase of its cycle. If this is the case, how can we measure the benefits of an uncertain breakthrough in acceleration technology? Who are the main stakeholders interested by such a breakthrough? We identify these subjects and sketch some avenues for answering these questions. We thus present a model for the social Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) of research infrastructures and illustrate the results of its implementation for assessing the benefits of accelerators in basic science and hadrontherapy. Lastly, we move from the social CBA of single research infrastructures to modeling a major change in the accelerator technology and hence in the industry. A research agenda on the potential impacts of a technological breakthrough is presented.

We study how oil supply shocks affect the output growth of selected countries in the Mediterranean region. We focus on the effects of oil supply shocks on economic activity, as measured by real gross value added, for the whole economy, as well as for specific industries. We show that the response of real gross value added growth is negative and often statistically significant for net energy importers, while for net energy exporters it is not distinguishable from zero. This result holds for the aggregate economies, as well as for the selected industries. Moreover, the effects of oil supply shocks increase with the degree of energy dependence in the Mediterranean countries belonging to the European Union. Our results have several policy implications. First, the European Union should encourage projects on the efficient use of energy in the Mediterranean area. Second, European financial markets should promote appropriate financial instruments to stimulate investments in the Mediterranean energy sector. Third, international investors should consider the country-specific reactions to major macroeconomic shocks in the Mediterranean region.

This paper examines the relationship between biofuels, field crops and cattle prices in the U.S. from a new perspective. We focus on predictability in distribution by asking whether ethanol returns can be used to forecast different parts of field crops and cattle returns distribution, or vice versa. Density forecasts are constructed using Conditional Autoregressive Expectile models estimated with Asymmetric Least Squares. Forecast evaluation relies on quantile-weighed scoring rules, which identify regions of the distribution of interest to the analyst. Results show that both the centre and the left tail of the ethanol returns distribution can be predicted by using field crops returns. On the contrary, there is no evidence that ethanol can be used to forecast any region of the field crops or cattle returns distributions

CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research, is the most important labora-tory for particle physics in the world. It requires cutting edge technologies to deliver sci-entific discoveries. This paper investigates the time span needed for technology suppliers of CERN to absorb the knowledge acquired during the procurement relation and develop it into a patent. We estimate count data models relying on a sample of CERN suppliers for the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), a particle accelerator. Firms in our sample received their first LHC-related order over a long-time span (1995–2008). This fact is exploited to estimate the time lag that separates the beginning of the procurement relationship and the filing date of patents. Becoming a supplier of CERN is associated with a statistically sig-nificant increase in the number of patent applications by firms. Moreover, such an effect requires a relatively long gestation lag in the range of five to eight years.