Suchergebnisse

ON THE PREMISE THAT RECENT CAMPAIGNS HAVE DEMONSTRATED THE IMPORTANCE OF DYNAMIC ELEMENTS IN AFFECTING THE SELECTION OF PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEES, THE PAPER DEVELOPS A MATHEMATICAL MODEL TO ANALYZE THESE DYNAMICS. AN ASSUMED RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE ABILITY TO ACQUIRE RESOURCES AND SUCCESS IN PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES IS THE HEART OF THE MODEL.

THE PURPOSE OF THIS PAPER IS TO DEVELOP A MULTIDIMENSIONAL SPATIAL MODEL AKIN TO THE STANDARD ONE OF ELECTIONS BUT ALSO TO STUDY HERE THE IMPACT OF A SECOND CATEGORY OF DECISIONS OPEN TO CITIZENS: THE DECISION TO BECOME A PARTISAN ACTIVIST. THE MODEL DEVELOPED HERE IS MEANT TO BE COMPATIBLE WITH STANDARD ELECTION MODELS (I.E., IT RESTS ON ESSENTIALLY IDENTICAL ASSUMPTIONS). THE DIFFERENCE HERE IS THAT CITIZENS CAN CHOOSE TO "JOIN" ONE OF THE TWO PARTIES (I.E., BECOME A PARTISAN ACTIVIST) WITH THE RESULTING IMPLICATION THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISTRIBUTION OF ACTIVISTS OF THE TWO PARTIES IN THE N-DIMENSIONAL SPACE. THE DECISION TO JOIN A PARTY IS ASSUMED TO PARALLEL THE VOTING DECISION IN FORM. HOWEVER, IT IS THEN SHOWN THAT, UNLIKE VOTING DECISIONS, ACTIVISTS' DECISIONS LEAD TO EQUILIBRIA DISTRIBUTIONS FOR THE POLITICAL PARTIES (AS SETS OF ACTIVITS) IN A MULTIDIMENSIONAL POLICY SPACE.

WHILE CANDIDATES REGULARLY SPEND MUCH TIME AND EFFORT CAMPAIGNING ON FOREIGN AND DEFENSE POLICIES, THE THRUST OF PREVAILING SCHOLARLY OPINION IS THAT VOTERS POSSESS LITTLE INFORMATION AND WEAK ATTITUDES ON THESE ISSUES, WHICH THEREFORE HAVE NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON THEIR VOTING BEHAVIOR. THIS ESSAY ARGUES THAT PUBLIC ATTITUDES ON FOREIGN AND DEFENSE POLICIES ARE AVAILABLE AND COGNITIVELY ACCESSIBLE, THAT THE PUBLIC HAS PERCEIVED CLEAR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE CANDIDATES ON THESE ISSUES IN RECENT ELECTIONS, AND THAT THESE ISSUES HAVE AFFECTED THE PUBLIC'S VOTE CHOICES. DATA INDICATE THAT THESE CONCLUSIONS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS ISSUES AND DOMESTIC ISSUES.