Suchergebnisse

SOCIAL SCIENTIFIC FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSTS HAVE ENGAGED IN INTENSE ANALYSIS FOR OVER A DECADE- AND WITH LITLE REAL SUCCESS. IN THEIR QUEST TO EXPLAIN AND PREDICT FOREIGN POLICY BEHAVIOR THEY HAVE OFTEN ATTEMPTED TO DELINEATE THEIR VARIABLES COMPREHENSIVELY. FACTORS ARISING OR RESULTING FROM THE IMPACT OF THE AVAILABILITY AND DISTRIBUTION OF RESOURCES REPRESENT FOREIGN POLICY VARIABLES.

RESEARCH DIRECTED TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF USER-ORIENTED INTEGRATED CRISIS WARMING SYSTEMS SHOULD INCORPORATE QUANITITATIVE MILITARY, POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR CRISIS WARNING; INDICATORS OF U.S. MILITARY, POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC INTERESTS ABROAD; AND A UNIFIED FORECASTING CAPABILITY INTO AN INTERACTIVE COMPUTER BASE. INITIAL MOVEMENT TOWARD THIS GOAL HAS OCCUREED.

THE ARTICLE ADDRESSES PAUCITY OF RELIABLE (EMPIRICAL) FOREIGN POLICY KNOWLEDGE IN THE LIGHT OF THE NUMEROUS ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORKS WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSTRUCTED AND IMPLEMENTED IN RECENT YEARS. MOST ALL OF THESE FRAMEWORKS FAIL TO SATISFY AT LEAST ONE OF THE EVALUATIVE CRITERIA OF COMPREHENSIVE, COMPARATIVENESS, OPERATIONALIZABILITY, AND POLICY-RELEVANCE