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AbstractWild animals play an integral and complex role in the economies and ecologies of many countries across the globe, including those of West and Central Africa, the focus of this policy perspective. The trade in wild meat, and its role in diets, have been brought into focus as a consequence of discussions over the origins of COVID-19. As a result, there have been calls for the closure of China's "wet markets"; greater scrutiny of the wildlife trade in general; and a spotlight has been placed on the potential risks posed by growing human populations and shrinking natural habitats for animal to human transmission of zoonotic diseases. However, to date there has been little attention given to what the consequences of the COVID-19 economic shock may be for the wildlife trade; the people who rely on it for their livelihoods; and the wildlife that is exploited. In this policy perspective, we argue that the links between the COVID-19 pandemic, rural livelihoods and wildlife are likely to be more complex, more nuanced, and more far-reaching, than is represented in the literature to date. We develop a causal model that tracks the likely implications for the wild meat trade of the systemic crisis triggered by COVID-19. We focus on the resulting economic shockwave, as manifested in the collapse in global demand for commodities such as oil, and international tourism services, and what this may mean for local African economies and livelihoods. We trace the shockwave through to the consequences for the use of, and demand for, wild meats as households respond to these changes. We suggest that understanding and predicting the complex dynamics of wild meat use requires increased collaboration between environmental and resource economics and the ecological and conservation sciences.

UK Natural Environment Research Council ; European Research Council Advanced Investigator Award (GEM-TRAIT) ; Nature Conservancy-Oxford Martin School Climate Partnership ; NERC ; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) ; Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation ; Sime Darby Foundation ; Project USA-NAS/PEER ; Project ReFlor FAPEMAT ; Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria - Embrapa ; European Research Council (H2020-MSCA-RISE-2015) ; UK government Darwin Initiative ; Nature Conservancy ; UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) ; Jackson Foundation ; UK Natural Environment Research Council: NE/P001092/1 ; European Research Council Advanced Investigator Award (GEM-TRAIT): 321131 ; NERC: NE/I014705/1 ; NERC: NE/K016369/1 ; NERC: NE/F005776/1 ; NERC: NE/K016385/1 ; NERC: NE/J011002/1 ; CNPq: 457914/2013-0/MCTI/ CNPq/FNDCT/LBA/ESECAFLOR ; CNPq: 403725/ 2012-7 ; CNPq: 441244/2016-5 ; CNPq: 457602/2012-0 ; Project USA-NAS/PEER: PGA-2000005316 ; Project ReFlor FAPEMAT: 0589267/2016 ; CNPq: 574008/2008-0 ; Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria - Embrapa: SEG: 02.08.06.005.00 ; European Research Council (H2020-MSCA-RISE-2015): 691053-ODYSSEA ; UK government Darwin Initiative: 17-023 ; UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC): NE/F01614X/1 ; UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC): NE/G000816/1 ; UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC): NE/K016431/1 ; UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC): NE/P004512/1 ; : PQ-2 ; Meteorological extreme events such as El Nino events are expected to affect tropical forest net primary production (NPP) and woody growth, but there has been no large-scale empirical validation of this expectation. We collected a large high-temporal resolution dataset (for 1-13 years depending upon location) of more than 172 000 stem growth measurements using dendrometer bands from across 14 regions spanning Amazonia, Africa and Borneo in order to test how much month-to-month variation in stand-level woody growth of adult tree stems (NPPstem) can be explained by seasonal variation and interannual meteorological anomalies. A key finding is that woody growth responds differently to meteorological variation between tropical forests with a dry season (where monthly rainfall is less than 100 mm), and aseasonal wet forests lacking a consistent dry season. In seasonal tropical forests, a high degree of variation in woody growth can be predicted from seasonal variation in temperature, vapour pressure deficit, in addition to anomalies of soil water deficit and shortwave radiation. The variation of aseasonal wet forest woody growth is best predicted by the anomalies of vapour pressure deficit, water deficit and shortwave radiation. In total, we predict the total live woody production of the global tropical forest biome to be 2.16 Pg C yr(-1), with an interannual range 1.96-2.26 Pg C yr(-1) between 1996-2016, and with the sharpest declines during the strong El Nino events of 1997/8 and 2015/6. There is high geographical variation in hotspots of El Nino-associated impacts, with weak impacts in Africa, and strongly negative impacts in parts of Southeast Asia and extensive regions across central and eastern Amazonia. Overall, there is high correlation (r = -0.75) between the annual anomaly of tropical forest woody growth and the annual mean of the El Nino 3.4 index, driven mainly by strong correlations with anomalies of soil water deficit, vapour pressure deficit and shortwave radiation. This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Nino on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.