Suchergebnisse

This paper investigates the international spillovers of government debt and the associated risk of inflation within a monetary union when countries have different pension systems. I use a stochastic two-country two-period overlapping-generations model, where one country has PAYG pensions and the other country has funded pensions. The paper shows that the PAYG country can shift part of its long-term debt burden to the funded country. Moreover, the PAYG country gains from unexpected inflation at the cost of the funded country. In response to these conflicting interests about inflation, inflation risk may rise with the level of debt in the PAYG country. Higher inflation risk harms both countries. Actually, in contrast to the debt burden, the PAYG country cannot share the negative effects of a rise in inflation risk with the funded country. The scenarios analysed might be especially relevant for the years to come.

Abstract This paper analyses the effects of ageing on the international capital market. The first part applies a simple model and distinguishes between the cases of a small open economy and a closed economy to explore the separate effects of ageing, the design of pension schemes and government policy on savings, labour supply and the interest rate. The second part of the paper analyses cross-border capital flows and spillover effects caused by international differences in ageing patterns, pension schemes and policy reactions. The final part is devoted to the quantitative effects found by various recent simulation studies.