Suchergebnisse

In a financial system where balance sheets are continuously marked to market, asset price changes show up immediately in changes in net worth, and elicit responses from financial intermediaries, who adjust the size of their balance sheets. We document evidence that marked to market leverage is strongly procyclical. Such behaviour has aggregate consequences. Changes in aggregate balance sheets for intermediaries forecast changes in risk appetite in financial markets, as measured by the innovations in the VIX index. Aggregate liquidity can be seen as the rate of change of the aggregate balance sheet of the financial intermediaries

Article Johansen, U., Perez-Valdes, G., & Werner, A. (2018). Regional Aspects of a Climate and Energy Tax Reform in Norway—Exploring Double and Multiple Dividends. Sustainability, 10(11), 4175. MDPI AG. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10114175 Abstract We investigate the potential for double or even multiple dividends arising from a climate and energy tax reform (CETR), using a regional computable general equilibrium model. Such dividends indicate if government revenues raised from energy-related environmental taxes and recycled back to households or industries through (regional) social security contributions will yield welfare gains larger than gross cost. Building on existing double dividend theory, we broaden the scope by considering both social and regional aspects of a CETR. We explore the use of household transfers and regional payroll taxes as recycling instruments and investigate to what extent wage formation on the labor market has an effect. For Norway, our results indicate that a CETR may conflict with sub-national policy goals under all assessed scenarios. In particular, this holds for income inequality. Although our analysis concerns the social, economic and environmental aims of a Norwegian policy, the approach can be generalized to, e.g., a European context.

We investigate the potential for double or even multiple dividends arising from a climate and energy tax reform (CETR), using a regional computable general equilibrium model. Such dividends indicate if government revenues raised from energy-related environmental taxes and recycled back to households or industries through (regional) social security contributions will yield welfare gains larger than gross cost. Building on existing double dividend theory, we broaden the scope by considering both social and regional aspects of a CETR. We explore the use of household transfers and regional payroll taxes as recycling instruments and investigate to what extent wage formation on the labor market has an effect. For Norway, our results indicate that a CETR may conflict with sub-national policy goals under all assessed scenarios. In particular, this holds for income inequality. Although our analysis concerns the social, economic and environmental aims of a Norwegian policy, the approach can be generalized to, e.g., a European context.

We reconsider the role of financial intermediaries in monetary economics. We explore the hypothesis that financial intermediaries drive the business cycle by way of their role in determining the price of risk. In this framework, balance sheet quantities emerge as a key indicator of risk appetite and hence of the 'risk-taking channel' of monetary policy. We document evidence that the balance sheets of financial intermediaries reflect the transmission of monetary policy through capital market conditions. We find short-term interest rates to be important in influencing the size of financial intermediary balance sheets. Our findings suggest that the traditional focus on the money stock for the conduct of monetary policy may have more modern counterparts, and we suggest the importance of tracking balance sheet quantities for the conduct of monetary policy.

We present estimates of the term structure of inflation expectations, derived from an affine model of real and nominal yield curves. The model features stochastic covariation of inflation with the real pricing kernel, enabling us to extract a time-varying inflation risk premium. We fit the model not only to yields, but also to the yields' variance-covariance matrix, thus increasing identification power. We find that model-implied inflation expectations can differ substantially from break-even inflation rates when market volatility is high. Our model's ability to be updated weekly makes it suitable for real-time monetary policy analysis.

We propose a measure of systemic risk, Δ CoVaR, defined as the change in the value at risk of the financial system conditional on an institution being under distress relative to its median state. Our estimates show that characteristics such as leverage, size, maturity mismatch, and asset price booms significantly predict Δ CoVaR. We also provide out-of-sample forecasts of a countercyclical, forward-looking measure of systemic risk, and show that the 2006:IV value of this measure would have predicted more than one-third of realized Δ CoVaR during the 2007–2009 financial crisis. (JEL C58, E32, G01, G12, G17, G20, G32)