Suchergebnisse

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYContext: The March 24, 2013, seizing of power by a coalition of rebels (Séléka) triggered a political and security crisis that resulted in a sharp contraction of economic activity, budgetary pressures, widespread destruction of administrative and economic infrastructures, a paralysis of the public administration, intercommunity conflicts, and a major humanitarian crisis. The new transitional government in place since the beginning of 2014 is facing significant challenges, including restoring security, reviving economic activity, and rebuilding the democratic process. As

KEY ISSUESShort-term vulnerabilities have risen significantly amid high fiscal and current account deficits. The international reserve position has weakened alongside mounting public debt. High interest rates and a depreciating currency have begun to weaken private sector activity, and spreads on Ghana's Eurobonds have risen above those of regional peers.Economic growth is slowing from previously high levels. Following estimated GDP growth of 5½ percent in 2013, staff projects a further deceleration to4¾ percent in 2014. Driven by the depreciation and administered price increases, inflation re

KEY ISSUESContext: Swift corrective measures were instrumental in putting the program back on track and placing the fiscal outlook on a sounder footing in the run-up to the 2015 elections.Program: The Executive Board approved the three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) on January 27, 2012, with a total access of 39 percent of quota (SDR 30 million). The first, second and third reviews were completed on July 27, 2012, February 14, 2013, and September 6, 2013, respectively. For the fourth review, all performance criteria were observed, aided by the adoption of significant

KEY ISSUESContext. The region continued to experience a strong upswing in 2013 and the immediate outlook is for further vigorous growth and moderate inflation. Sustaining this performance over the medium term, however, will require ambitious growth-enhancing reforms, high quality public investment, and consolidation of the recent improvements in the regional political and security situation. The outlook is subject to moderate downside risks. In the short term, political stability could be tested with the upcoming elections in a number of member states, particularly in a context of high demand

KEY ISSUESSetting: Namibia's positive growth record over the years has raised overall incomes and led to positive economic outcomes. However, growth has not translated into sufficient job creation contributing to persistently high unemployment and income inequality.Outlook and risks: Real GDP growth is expected to moderate to 4 percent in 2013 from 5 percent in 2012 reflecting weak global demand for exports partially offset by solid growth in domestic demand. The uncertain global environment and a possible delay in finalizing negotiations for the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the E

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country

KEY ISSUESSetting: Swaziland has gradually recovered from the fiscal crisis of 2010-11, buoyed by the improved revenues from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). Growth modestly recovered, and international reserves rebounded. Swaziland's challenges, however, remain significant, in view of its high vulnerability to exogenous shocks and its sluggish growth performance, while facing significant social and development challenges with high unemployment and the prevalence of HIV/AIDS. Swaziland now stands at a critical juncture to strengthen its resilience to exogenous shocks, address its w

KEY ISSUESContext: The Mauritian economy has grown steadily despite weak activity in Europe, its main trading partner. Growth was supported by fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policy. The economy is operating slightly below potential, domestic investment has fallen, and the planned medium-term fiscal consolidation has been delayed.Outlook and risks: The economic outlook for 2014 is broadly positive with growth projected at 3¾ percent and inflation at 4½ percent. The main short-term risk would be renewed Euro area financial stress; medium-term risks relate to weak future reform effort

This paper discusses Senegalâ??s Seventh Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) and Request for Modification of Assessment Criteria. GDP growth was lower than expected in 2013 but would increase to 4.9 percent in 2014 with a rebound in agriculture, mining, and industry. All quantitative assessment criteria and indicative targets for end-2013 were met, including on the budget deficit despite a significant revenue shortfall. Structural reform implementation has been slow, with many benchmarks met after their respective deadlines. Despite challenging prospects for 2014, the authorities

This paper focuses on Madagascarâ??s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF). The Malagasy authorities managed to avert a macroeconomic crisis during a difficult period of political transition and economic uncertainty since 2009. However, these disruptions have constrained growth and fiscal revenue, leading to a sharp compression of public investment and social outlays. The authorities are requesting a disbursement under the RCF. They also see the RCF as a stepping stone for a possible future arrangement addressing Madagascarâ??s medium-term challenges and as a positive

This paper discusses Seychellesâ?? Request for an Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). In the five years following the 2008 balance of payments and debt crisis, the authorities have successfully enacted a comprehensive program of reforms. Despite the success of the program, important risks and challenges remain. To face these challenges, the authorities have requested a successor EFF arrangement with the IMF. This program will help support their macroeconomic policies and protect reserve coverage over the extended period, while they carry out wide-ranging structural reforms nece

This paper focuses on Uganda''s Second Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) and Request for Modification of Assessment Criteria. Economic performance of Uganda has been broadly favorable. Progress has been made on structural reforms, but further steps are needed. Starting the construction of the two hydropower projects without further delay, approving and regulating the Public Financial Management Bill, and strengthening accounting controls are crucial steps in the reform effort. The expected amendments to the Bank of Uganda Act should support the inflation targeting regime. Based

KEY ISSUESSetting: The seeds of good governance and prudent macroeconomic and naturalresources management planted by the Botswana authorities paid off with an impressive increase in the GDP per capita during the last three decades. However, as in many other small middle-income countries (SMICs) in the region, trend growth has softened in recent years, reflecting the decline in the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to growth which calls for policies to reduce structural bottlenecks in the economy.Current conditions and outlook: Botswana''s economy remains broadly internally and ex

This paper focuses on Liberiaâ??s Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion (PC) and Modification of Performance Criteria. Real GDP grew at 8.7 percent in 2013 and is projected to decline to 5.9 percent in 2014 as mining production decelerates. Most end-December 2013 PCs and indicative targets (ITs) were met, except for the PC on government revenue and the IT on external borrowing. Four out of five structural benchmarks were met on time. The IMF staff supports the completion of the third ECF review

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that since 2010, the Lesothoâ??s economy has performed well with the growth of real GDP averaging over 5 percent a year and inflation held to single-digit levels. International reserves have recovered to close to 5 months of import coverage after dipping to 3½ months of imports in 2012 in the wake of the balance of payments and fiscal crisis. The economic outlook for Lesotho is positive with strong economic growth and low inflation. Economic activity is expected to be supported by large public investment projects, including the second phase of Leso