Suchergebnisse

Equine infectious anemia (EIA) is a viral infectious disease that affects Equidae and is clinically characterized by intermittent fever, anemia, depression, emaciation, and edema. To evaluate disease dynamics in the state of Tocantins, Brazil, a time series of EIA cases in the period 2007–2019 was analyzed to describe the pattern of occurrence and define the autoregressive integrated by moving average (ARIMA) model best suited to make predictions of cases of this disease for the period 2020–2021. The modeling and statistical analysis of the time series were performed using R software. The ARIMA model (2,1,1) was evaluated by Holdout cross-validation, in which data from the periods 2007–2017 and 2018–2019 were used as training and test data, respectively. The analyses showed that EIA was endemic and non-seasonal in Tocantins. The ARIMA model (2,1,1) showed good predictive capacity adjusted for this time series. However, the prediction of 276 cases of EIA in Tocantins for the period 2020–2021 may vary depending on the demand for diagnostic tests for Equidae transportation and herd sanitation in farms considered infection foci. The ARIMA model helps predict the number of EIA cases in Tocantins and improves planning for disease control by the Official Veterinary Service.

A cross-sectional study on the epidemiological situation of bovine brucellosis was carried out in the state of Tocantins to evaluate the effectiveness of its vaccination program. The state was divided into five regions, and a predetermined number of farms was randomly selected in each one. Females aged 24 months or older were randomly selected in each farm and diagnosed with brucellosis by serial serology (AAT and 2-ME). A total of 6,846 animals from 756 farms were examined. The prevalence of seropositive herds in the state was 6.42% [CI95%: 4.76-8.62], and the prevalence of seropositive animals was 2.21% [CI95%: 1.05-4.01]. The prevalence of seropositive herds was homogeneously distributed among regions. The 2002/2003 study estimated the prevalence of seropositive herds in the state to be 21.22% [CI95%: 19.33-23.11]. In conclusion, the vaccination program implemented in Tocantins, reaching vaccination coverage above 70% as of 2010, significantly reduced the prevalence of seropositive herds. Thus, continuing the vaccination program in the state is recommended, preferably increasing the quality of the processes involved, from commercialization to inoculation in animals, since immunization remains the most effective means to reduce the prevalence of brucellosis. In addition, animal replacement remains a major risk factor for bovine brucellosis in Tocantins since 20022003; therefore, the state must implement a strong health education program explaining to farmers the importance of testing animals for brucellosis before introducing them into their herds.