Suchergebnisse

Using a three-gap model, this paper simulates the future time
paths of resource deficits in Pakistan. The paper then show that the
policy of increasing the rate of return on foreign capital can reduce
foreign debt when foreign capital is sufficiently responsive to changes
in its rate of return. This, however, happens at the expense of
increasing domestic debt. The policy of selling public assets abroad
appears fruitless. The main benefit of this policy is a reduction in
domestic debt which can better be achieved by selling public assets
domestically.

Data deficiency is often a problem in regression analysis. The
problem, for example, may be due to non-availability of data on some
variable, missing observations, lack of information due to
multicollinearity and measurement errors, etc. Various approaches have
been suggested to deal with the problem depending on its precise nature.
One such problem we want to focus our attention on is the lack of time
disaggregated data in time-series regression analysis. In particular,
observations on some variables over a shorter time interval like a
quarter may be limited in number while the corresponding observations
over a longer time interval like a year are available for a long period
of time The number of quarterly observations may not be sufficient to
estimate the desired relationship with acceptable degrees of freedom. On
the other hand, estimation with yearly data may require the use of a
long time series going way back into the past. The estimates thus
obtained may not capture the relationship prevailing at present or in
the recent past and, therefore, mislead the researcher. In addition, the
use of yearly data may also result in lack of degrees of
freedom.

Electricity theft is a common problem in many countries and
energy worth billions of dollars is stolen annually from electricity
grids. The problem has socioeconomic, political, environmental and
technical roots, but the solution is generally sought solely through
technical measures. This paper empirically investigates the effects of
various factors including electricity price, per capita income,
probability of detection, fines collected from offenders, weighted
temperature index and load shedding, that may explain the theft. The
study employed annual panel data obtained from nine electricity
distribution companies in Pakistan for the period 1988–2010. The study
estimates the Fixed Effects models through the least squares dummy
variable (LSDV) technique and Generalised Method of Moments (GMM). Our
results indicate that per capita income has significant negative and
electricity price a positive effect on electricity theft with
sufficiently high coefficient values. The probability of detection
variable appears with a positive sign in both estimations indicating a
poor deterrence. The results of LSDV show a positive impact of fine on
conviction on electricity theft. But in GMM estimation, this variable
appears with a right sign. The results from both models are robust in
the case of load shedding and temperature variables. The findings show
that economic variables are most significant in explaining electricity
theft. The findings may also be applicable in other developing countries
where hefty amounts of revenues are lost due to electricity theft.
Keywords: Electricity Theft, Fixed Effects Model, Pakistan

Developing countries are typically unable to generate
sufficient amount of revenue from taxation because these countries face
a number of institutional problems in the process of revenue generation.
One of the main problems is corruption in tax administration. The two
important components of revenue generation are tax administration and
tax system reforms [Brondolo, et al. (2008)]. The main objective of
these is to increase the efficiency of tax administrations, specifically
by reducing corruption and tax evasion. The second main problem of low
revenue generation is political instabilities in developing countries.
One of the important characteristics of political instability is
unstable and governments and, hence, incoherent policy framework, which
hinder in the process of long-term reforms in the system. The quality of
governance as a whole is also relevant in this context. It is widely
agreed that the presence of tax evasion and corruption of public
officials is a social phenomenon that can significantly reduce tax
revenue and seriously hurt economic growth and development.

Willingness-to-Pay to avoid risks has long been recognised as
an important response to perceived environmental and health hazards.
Abdalla, et al. (1992) have documented the existence of consumer
averting behaviour in response to potential water contamination, while
Musser, et al. (1992) Smith and Desvouges (1986) and Courant and Porter
(1998) were among the first to provide a theoretical framework for the
averting behaviour in response to pollution. All these studies estimated
that averting behaviour formed a lower bound willingness-to-pay for
reduction in pollution under certain conditions. In developing countries
willingness-to-pay and demand for the good quality drinking water is
often low. The major causes are lack of awareness regarding the
contamination of drinking water and low levels of household incomes. The
objectives of this paper are (a) to estimate the effects of formal and
informal awareness of households on the demand for the home purification
methods and b) to estimate willingness to pay for the safe drinking
water. To accomplish these objectives we develop a theoretical framework
of households' water purification behaviour by incorporating the wealth
and awareness indicators of households.

The use of social and economic indicators to evaluate and rank
governments' performance is often found in literature. The
Anglo-Commonwealth and Scandinavian countries rest on the surveillance
of work in the various ministries. This performance accounting approach
thus becomes crucial for any regime to perform superlatively to their
predecessors and thus it provides the basis to suggest why it is
important to inspect governance of a government. Government's efficacy
also depends on the magnitude of the welfare that it is able to achieve.
Debate on welfare is dated back to Adam Smith at-least. Now the question
is what should be the welfare gauging indicators. We understand that,
issues related to poverty, land utilisation, agriculture and industrial
sectors, health services, education, growth rate of national income, per
capita income, employment, etc. are important factors that can explain
welfare status of a nation. Thus by developing an index based on
performance in these areas, various political regimes can be evaluated
and ranked. These evaluations and rankings set standards for future
governments to improve. Thus these studies can be useful for developing
and improving social welfare standards.

A useful contribution of wide ranging debate in the growth
literature is that it has put forward a number of testable hypotheses.
One of such hypotheses is known as the convergence hypothesis whereby it
is postulated that in the long run developing countries would catch-up
with the developed countries in terms of per capita income. Although the
convergence hypothesis has gained researchers' interest in recent times,
the basic proposition was laid down in the neo-classical growth model of
Solow (1956) and Swan (1956). Traditionally Solow-Swan model has been
regarded as a theoretically consistent answer to Harrods's (1939) twin
problems of discrepancy between the warranted and natural rates of
growth and instability in the growth process. Although Solow- Swan model
is designed to study growth process within a single country, the concept
of conditional convergence is far from being alien to the model; it in
fact forms the core of argument in the attack on Harrod-Domar model
[Harrod (1939) and Domar (1946)].

The manufacturing sector of Pakistan has at times played the
role of the leading sector of the economy. The successful experience of
planned growth in the 1960s owes much to the special attention paid to
the growth of manufacturing sector. Policies like the export bonus
scheme, tax-holidays, subsidised import of capital, easy and subsidised
loans and over-valued exchange rate, resulted in a substantial growth in
the sector. However, with over-protection of the sector, nationalisation
of some of the major industries in the 1970s and, later-on,
over-employment in the nationalised industries, the performance of the
sector started to deteriorate gradually. It is now widely believed that
many of the manufacturing industries in Pakistan have become inefficient
because they have not been exposed to competitive environment due to
protective and distortionary policies.

The current debt situation in Pakistan and the resulting
financial crisis require serious attempts to find a sustainable
indigenous solution. As such it is essential to search ways and means to
reduce dependence on external borrowing over medium to long run.1
External debt is usually created to sustain a growth rate of the
economy, which is otherwise not feasible with the given state of
domestic resources, technology, consumption propensity and economic
management practices. However, the success of economic growth financed
by external borrowing depends on two factors, namely the domestic saving
rate and productivity. A country with lower saving rate needs to borrow
more to finance a given rate of economic growth. In Pakistan the flow of
external loans is likely to have adversely affected the compulsion for
savings. For example, no serious attempts have been made to improve tax
collection or to control non-development government expenditure unless
forced by the donor agencies. The adverse effect of borrowing on savings
has recently been observed in [Ali et al. (1997)]. The evidence also
does not support the proposition that higher rate of economic growth
results in higher saving rate [see Ali et al. (1997)]. The saving rate
in the private sector of Pakistan has remained low because of low real
interest rates and the lack of legitimate and safe investment
opportunities. Furthermore the poor and middle-income classes have been
burdened with high inflation tax and no serious efforts have been made
to tax the rich. Saving rate in the government sector has been
deteriorating due to exponential growth in the size of this sector and
extraordinarily low productivity. Government has ventured in the
territories where it had no business in the first place.

This study explores the history of stock market crisis in the emerging market of Pakistan from different perspectives over the period July-1997 to December-2016. To identify and measure the timing of crises occurrence and their various dimensions (magnitude of crisis, days to recovery, duration of crisis, depth of crisis, size of crisis, etc.), CMAX methodology is employed. Thus, the study adds to existing literature by studying the Pakistani market in this regard and also proposing a method to quantify the intensity of crisis (within CMAX framework). The results indicate that the two major crises of 1997-2002 and 2008-2012 are found to coincide with a number of major financial, economic and political crises in Pakistan and around the world.

This study investigates the dynamics of beta by the asymmetric
response of beta to bullish and bearish market environment on 50 stocks
traded in Karachi Stock Exchange during 1993-2007. The results show that
the betas increase (decrease) when the market is bullish (bearish). The
results however suggest that investors receive a positive premium for
accepting down-side risk, while a negative premium is associated with
up-market beta. The results suggest that the conditional Fama and French
three factor model has performed better than the conditional CAPM when
news asymmetry was taken into account compared with the unconditional
Fama and French three factor model and the unconditional dual-beta CAPM
in explaining the relationship in beta and returns in case of Pakistani
market. JEL classification: G12, G15 Keywords: Beta Instability, High
Market Beta, Low Market Beta, EGARCH Model, News Asymmetry, Fama and
French Three Factor Model

Multinational enterprises (MNEs) not only generate global
flows of foreign direct investment, but are also extremely for global
trade flows. UNCTAD (2004) estimates that MNEs account for around
two-thirds of world exports. Since MNEs are responsible for a large
proportion of world trade, one may infer that there is a close
relationship between flows of FDI and trade. An MNE network, consisting
of a parent and a network of affiliates, generates simultaneous flows of
goods and investments. In this context the pool of knowledge and
associated models, which explain international trade, has grown
substantially in the recent past, but there is less theoretical
consensus about the relationship between trade flows and FDI. The fact
that exporting and local production are alternative ways for an MNE to
serve the demand in a foreign market suggests a substitutability
relationship between FDI and trade. MNE production in the host country
implies that local production is a substitute for exports from the home
country. On the other hand, MNE affiliates' production in a host country
can generate a demand for intermediate goods from the parent, resulting
in a complementary relationship between flows of FDI and trade
(exports). Theoretical reasoning therefore supports both these
possibilities, providing a strong incentive for empirical
analysis