Suchergebnisse

This paper re-examines the development implications of international migration focusing on two issues: how the costs and benefits of migration change over time, and the significance of South-South migration for development. First, the analysis finds that although greater migration could push down the wages of native workers of advanced countries in the short run, these wages eventually recover. This pattern would be mostly caused by the beneficial effect of additional labor on the real returns on capital and fostering faster capital formation. Additional South-North migration could favor capital income recipients and reduces labor income in host regions in the short run. In contrast, in sending countries, capital owners could experience lower incomes while wages rise. Globally, the welfare gains of new migrants could be expected to exceed the losses of old migrants by a wide margin. The remaining natives in sending countries could enjoy a net increase in remittances as well as an increase in labor income, although income from capital might decline. Second, in a hypothetical scenario with lower South-South migration, the implied losses of remittance income could lead to substantially lower welfare in developing countries. Although the wage differentials among developing countries tend to be smaller relative to their wage differentials with high-income countries, South-South migrants make substantial contributions to remittances.

The extensive literature on population and development yielded few policy-relevant results before the discovery of the demographic dividend. This dividend refers to a rise in per capita income that results from an increase in workers per capita as a population's fertility declines. This paper describes the role of the demographic dividend in economic development in developing countries and summarizes policy options for strengthening the dividend. The first section reviews the demographic transition with an emphasis on its later phases when declining fertility and a changing population age structure produce the dividend. Next, the demographic drivers of the dividend and its potential impact on economic growth are examined. The last sections discuss policy options. Special attention is given to the role of voluntary family planning programs to meet rising demand for contraception thus accelerating the fertility decline and increasing the dividend when demand for smaller families is growing. The focus throughout is on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the region that has experienced little demographic dividend but where the potential for a future dividend is greatest.