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In: Das, A., Sharma, S. K., Akhter, R. Lahiri, T., (2020). Special Safeguard Mechanism for Agriculture: Implications for Developing Members at the WTO. Working Paper No. CWS/WP/200/59. Centre For WTO Studies, Delhi
SSRN
Working paper
In: Journal of international trade & economic development: an international and comparative review, Band 31, Heft 3, S. 358-374
ISSN: 1469-9559
In: Working Paper No. CWS/WP/200/56, Centre For WTO Studies, Delhi.
SSRN
Working paper
In: The Indian economic journal, Band 71, Heft 3, S. 508-531
ISSN: 2631-617X
This study identifies and rationalises some of India's issues and concerns with the signing of the RCEP. By analysing the existing trade balance, import surge trends, dumping and agricultural sensitivities, among other factors, the study justifies India's decision to remain outside of this mega-FTA. Further, it predicts the impact of tariff elimination under RCEP on various macroeconomic variables of the RCEP member countries by using the GTAP model under two scenarios: (i) India does not join the RCEP and (ii) India joins the RCEP. Results show that India's GDP would be adversely affected if it joins this agreement, and its overall trade deficit may further deteriorate after joining the RCEP. In terms of the bilateral trade balance, India's trade deficit with ASEAN and China will grow steeply if it joins the agreement. The study also finds that an RCEP without India may lose its shine as the GDP of most of the other members of the RCEP would be negatively impacted by India's decision to stay out. JEL Codes: F13, F15, F17, F61, O53