Search results

Abstract
This paper reinvestigates the causal effects of local unemployment on fertility. It argues that contradicting results in the existing empirical research may have arisen due to a neglect of sub-demographic differences and failure to recognize endogeneity. It hypothesizes that male and female unemployment will have different impacts on fertility across subgroups of the population. Drawing on the UK Labor Force Survey and the Birth Statistics data from the Office for National Statistics, the results of this study suggest that female unemployment tends to increase births, whereas male unemployment has the opposite effect. More importantly, the reported results indicate the unemployment and fertility relation exhibits strong variation across demographic subgroups. Lastly, a persistent countercyclical fertility pattern is also documented at the county level.

Can high-quality local governance alleviate the environmental impact of large-scale refugee migration? The recent surge in refugee flows has brought additional challenges to local governments in Europe, the Middle East and certain regions of Africa and Asia. In this paper, we focus on the case of Syrian refugees in Turkey and show that the quality of local governance plays a critical role in mitigating the environmental deterioration. We employ text analysis methods to construct a unique data set on local governance quality from the independent audit reports on municipalities. Using a quasi-experimental econometric strategy, we show that the Syrian refugee influx has worsened environmental outcomes along several dimensions in Turkey. Specifically, we find that the deterioration in environmental outcomes is almost entirely driven by provinces with poor-quality governance. Those provinces fail to invest sufficiently in waste management practices and environmental services in response to increased refugee settlements. We argue that good local governance practices can smooth out the refugee integration process and complement the efforts of central governments.

Abstract
Epidemic exposure in an individual's 'impressionable years' (ages 18 to 25) has a persistent negative effect on confidence in political institutions and leaders. This loss of trust is associated with epidemic-induced economic difficulties, such as lower income and unemployment later in life. It is observed for political institutions and leaders only and does not carry over to other institutions and individuals. A key exception is a strong negative effect on confidence in public health systems. This suggests that the distrust in political institutions and leaders is associated with the (in)effectiveness of a government's healthcare-related response to epidemics. We show that the loss of political trust is largest for individuals who experienced epidemics under weak governments with low policymaking capacity, and confirm that weak governments in fact took longer to introduce policy interventions in response to COVID-19. We report evidence that the epidemic-induced loss of political trust discourages electoral participation in the long term.