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THIS STUDY USES THE DATA OF PIVEN AND CLOWARD, FROM WHICH THEY DREW THEIR THEORY ON MASS INSURGENCY AND ITS EFFECTS ON U.S. GOVERNMENT, TO TEST THE HYPOTHESIS THAT THERE IS A POSITIVE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN SOCIAL DISORDERS AND WELFARE CASELOAD INCREASES. FINDING NO EMPIRICAL SUPPORT FOR THE HYPOTHESES, A RIVAL EXPLANATION IS OFFERED.

The years since 2004 have been marked by a level of insurgency in the southern region of Thailand unknown for decades. An accurate perspective on this conflict requires a deeper understanding of differences between the Buddhist and Muslim Thais of the region than has been evident in public and academic discourse. This study utilizes data from a survey taken in 2006, of attitudes and political orientations across all regions of Thailand, including an independent sample of the southern region. The data indicate that southerners are different from the rest of Thailand, whether Buddhist or Muslim; that Malay-speaking Muslims are different from other Muslims; and that sympathy for the insurgency lies not in religion, but in defending practices associated with loyalty to specific forms of Malay culture that characterize the region.

Peaceful transition of administration through new elections and an elected majority government marked a significant step toward consolidation of democracy in Thailand. An otherwise positive picture was clouded by continuing insurgency in the south. Thailand appears to have weathered economic shocks from a sharp decline in tourism and a spike in oil prices, but relations with Malaysia concerning cross-border issues associated with the southern insurgency are strained.

News about Thailand in 2004 was dominated by the "Crisis in the South." Daily assassinations of local police, soldiers, religious leaders, and other civilians marked a level of insurgency beyond that in other regions of Southeast Asia and one not seen in Thailand for over 30 years. The recurrent violence represents a serious challenge to the nation and at this juncture, it is unclear whether Thailand will concede to irredentism, initiate more local autonomy, or settle for a protracted period of political unrest. These events dominated the political picture in preparation for parliamentary elections scheduled for February 2005 and clouded the premise of a stabilizing economy and programs of government change unprecedented in recent Thai history.

Elections in 2003, the third since the 1991 peace agreement, represent a significant step toward a multi-party democracy, but provisions of the Constitution designed to reconcile warring parties now pose problems for developing stable, democratically elected governments. Regional economic shocks to tourism have caused Cambodia to fall well below original projections for economic growth. Prospects for an international tribunal to try former Khmer Rouge leaders now appear to be moving toward limbo.