Suchergebnisse

A method is presented for computing long-term greenhouse gas emission pathways for both industrial ("Annex B") countries and developing ("non-Annex B") countries. This method combines two main factors: (i) climate protection goals, in the form of targets for stabilising CO2 in the atmosphere, and (ii) the allocation of global emissions to industrial and developing countries based on a so-called "burden sharing" scheme. In this paper two CO2 stabilisation targets are investigated - stabilisation at 450 ppm in 2100 and 550 ppm in 2150. The burden sharing scheme is based on the following rules: A non-Annex B country increases its emissions according to a "baseline" no-policy scenario until its national income reaches a specified "graduation" income level. After reaching this level it freezes its per capita emissions until they are equal to the average per capita emissions in Annex B countries. After this point, the per capita emissions of the non-Annex B country are the same as the average for Annex B countries. For a variety of assumptions about the graduation income level, it was found that the two stabilisation targets can be achieved even if total emissions from non-Annex B countries increase until around 2030. However, after this point, emissions from these countries must stabilise or be sharply reduced.

Life in Europe will indeed go on as the climate changes, but not in the same way as before. The air will be warmer, winds will change, patterns of rainfall and snowfall will alter, and sea level is likely to rise. These phenomena are already being seen. Europe will in the future experience marked changes in vegetation cover, increased floods along rivers and coastlines as well as more frequent droughts and forest fires, often leading to large societal costs. The changes will be minor in some cases, profound in others, but in any case, pervasive. This book uses the most up to date information & nb

As scientists and policymakers try to come to grips with problems such as climate change and risks to biodiversity, they turn more and more frequently to the method of scenario analysis to better understand the future of these problems. Over the last few years scenario analysis has become one of the key tools for bridging environmental science and policy. This is the first book to sum up the current practice of environmental scenario analysis and to propose directions for improving its quality and effectiveness