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The paper examines episodes of current account adjustment in individual economies. A central finding is that these episodes are very divergent and can be usefully classified, on the basis of cluster analysis, in three groups. A majority of cases is characterised by internal adjustment, exhibiting slowing domestic demand growth. In some cases, the adjustment was mainly external, facilitated by an exchange rate depreciation but without economic slowdown. Finally, some cases involved a crisis-like combination of a severe slowdown and a significant currency depreciation. Using a multinomial logit, we find that this classification of episodes helps improve the predictability of current account adjustment.

The present study examines the dynamics and regulatory regimes of commodity derivatives markets through time. The historical perspective allows to identify the reasons behind the use of derivatives and the impact of changing rules on financial systems. It further permits to highlight the weaknesses and the strengths of derivatives markets and provides valuable lessons to tackle challenges, replicate practices, and prevent failures. The analysis shows that derivatives markets have a long history and have facilitated trading across time and geographical areas. The results of a quasi-experiment conducted for Japan and the US reveal that commodity price fluctuations were higher before the establishment of futures markets. The analysis further indicates that the unprecedented inflow of liquidity in derivatives markets was mainly facilitated by the deregulation policies adopted in the US, EU and elsewhere and was intensified by an increasing interest of investors in alternative asset classes. In the new millennium many product innovations flooded the market, reducing transparency and increasing market uncertainty. The study indicates that improved data quality and quantity are necessary conditions to enhance the understanding of derivatives markets. In addition, a sound legal and financial system is a must for thriving financial markets. Such a system creates a framework of checks and balances for the market, it contributes significantly to meaningful regulations and vibrant policies and helps to prevent or eradicate market manipulations.

This paper shows how the Dutch Disease has affected the Russian economy since the start of the transition in the early 1990s. Four symptoms have been detected, namely: 1) a real exchange rate appreciation, 2) a temporary improved economic situation, 3) an output decline in the non-booming-sector, 4) an export reduction in the non-booming-sector. An extended version of the Balassa-Samuelson model has been implemented to test symptom 1. Our results suggest a positive long-run cointegration relationship between the real exchange rate and the oil price. A 7% real appreciation is caused by a 10% oil price shock. Moreover, a 10% increase in oil prices leads to a 2% GDP growth, while a 10% real appreciation is associated with a 2.1% output decline. The total effect on GDP growth, considering the Balassa-Samuelson effect, confirms symptom 2. Finally, the domestic industrial production drops and high-tech and textile exports are crowed out. This indicates that the Russian economy is also affected by symptoms 3 and 4. We conclude that Russia's government should invest the tax revenues collected from the resource sector such that the structure of the economy becomes more diversified and less vulnerable to exogenous shocks.

Starting from the late 1950s, mainly as a reaction to Leontief's paradoxical results, a large amount of research has underlined the great importance of technology and human capital in explaining international trade in manufactures. This study examines the patterns of comparative advantages for 42 countries and 91 manufactured classes of final and intermediate products and their changes between 2001 and 2019. The dynamics and the effects of the international fragmentation of production processes are also considered. Comparative advantages in each class of products are related to three different measures of a country's human capital or technology endowment: the cost of labour, the level of formal education and the number of patents per capita. An indicator of home market size enters the model as a control variable. The econometric analysis reveals that in 2019, human capital or technology endowments explain comparative advantages in 70 out of 91 products. In particular, 31 products are positively and significantly associated with at least 1 of the 3 human capital or technology indicators, 34 products are negatively and significantly linked to at least 1 indicator, 5 products show contrasting results, 21 products are not related to any human capital or technology indicator. Between 2001 and 2019, comparative advantages for 15 classes of products shifted towards lower-technology countries and for 18 productions towards higher-technology countries. There were no shifts for 51 products. From a policy perspective, the distinction between high and low-technology productions could have some interesting implications. Since high-technology productions are characterised by a higher learning-by-doing rate, governments should foster domestic firms to upgrade the human capital or technology intensity of their productions. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40797-022-00185-4.