International Foresight Academy (IFA) Conference Special Issue
In: foresight v.18
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In: foresight v.18
In: foresight v.18
Cover -- Research and innovation futures: exploring new ways of doing and organizing knowledge creation -- Rebooting science? Implications of science 2.0 main trends for scientific method and research institutions -- New forms of innovation: critical issues for future pathways -- Constructing transformative scenarios for research and innovation futures -- Strategies for emerging research and innovation futures -- Futures of science with and for society: towards transformative policy orientations
In: Futures, Band 85, S. 1-13
In: Futures: the journal of policy, planning and futures studies, Band 85, S. 1-13
ISSN: 0016-3287
In: Futures: the journal of policy, planning and futures studies
ISSN: 0016-3287
In: Science and public policy: journal of the Science Policy Foundation, Band 29, Heft 6, S. 439-450
ISSN: 1471-5430
In: Science & public policy: SPP ; journal of the Science Policy Foundation, Band 29, Heft 6, S. 439-450
ISSN: 0302-3427, 0036-8245
In: Foresight: the journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy, Band 18, Heft 1, S. 41-58
ISSN: 1465-9832
Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to illustrate and discuss how stakeholder assessment of scenarios can be used to trigger a structured and, therefore, more efficient debate amongst stakeholders about future options for achieving a more eco-efficient transport system in Europe. Particularly, it wants to explore the extent to which a distinction between the desirability and the feasibility of a potential future development can render such debates more rational and transparent.Design/methodology/approach– The paper is based on a project on eco-efficient transport for the Science and Technology Option Assessment panel of the European Parliament (STOA). Key elements of the methods used in the STOA project were easily understandable scenarios and a survey of the main assumptions underlying the scenarios. Both the scenarios and the survey were used in a stakeholder workshop to assess the desirability and the feasibility of approaches towards establishing a more eco-efficient transport system.Findings– The methodological approach proved helpful for collecting a large amount of valuable information in a relative short time. In particular, the distinction between desirability and feasibility was useful in mapping out the patterns of opinion amongst stakeholders and for understanding where there is common ground, where there are differences and what the reasons behind these differences are. It helped in identifying promising pathways towards more eco-efficient transport futures and in getting a better understanding of barriers and of the ways to overcome them.Practical implications– The approach served as the basis for having a well-structured, rational and, thus, efficient debate. In practice, this factor is relevant because stakeholder involvement is crucial when it comes to transitions of socio-technical systems, such as the transport system. Keeping stakeholders motivated to take part in such participatory processes is only possible, however, if they perceive that these processes are well-structured and, therefore, efficient.Originality/value– In contrast to many other scenario-based approaches, the scenarios in this project were understood as an input to the discussion and not as the result of a process. Furthermore, not only the results but also the underlying assumptions of the scenarios were explicitly made a topic for assessment. The differentiation between desirability and feasibility was used as a guiding dimension for the assessment.
In: Foresight, Band 10, Heft 6, S. 103-117
In: Foresight, Band 18, Heft 3, S. 253-275
Purpose
This paper aims to present a set of strategic options for Research and Innovation (R&I) stakeholders in the light of new and emerging ways of organising and performing research.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper first reviews the evolution of the R&I landscape and identifies the most influential stakeholders engaged in R&I. In the light of the scenarios developed for the year 2030, a set of strategic options are identified and assessed for each stakeholder group.
Findings
R&I systems are now more complex than 50 years ago and will be even more in the future. Radical changes are expected in terms of the ways research is funded, organised and carried out. Some of these transformations are captured by the scenarios developed. The analysis of scenarios indicated that their feasibility and desirability differ across different sectors of industry, and research areas within the research landscape.
Research limitations/implications
Scenarios and strategies presented in the paper bring new considerations on the way research activities are practiced. Further research is considered to be useful on the new modes of research and implications for academia, industry, society and policy makers.
Practical implications
The discussion around the responses of different stakeholders vis-à-vis specific scenarios about the future in R&I practices and organisation gives a practical view about how to deal with associated emerging trends and issues.
Social implications
Society is a crucial stakeholder of all R&I activities. The transformative scenarios suggest that society will not only be playing a reactive role on the demand side but also more proactive role on the supply side in the decades to come.
Originality/value
The paper is based on work undertaken within the Research and Innovation (RIF) 2030 project. As R&I activities will be important for the development and competitiveness of the EU and its member states, the work presented here is considered to be of value by highlighting how to create more resilient strategies in a fast-changing R&I landscape.
In: Science and public policy: journal of the Science Policy Foundation, Band 32, Heft 5, S. 349-366
ISSN: 1471-5430
In: Foresight, Band 18, Heft 1, S. 76-90
Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to address a central question in foresight exercises: how to communicate derived results?
Design/methodology/approach
– By drawing on an empirical study, this paper presents a framework for using visualizations in foresight and illustrates its application by referring to a case study.
Findings
– The argument is made that by using a dimensional framework, the effects of visualization can be leveraged for communicating foresight results and creating stronger buy-in.
Originality/value
– Although visualizations appear to be a central means of communication and engagement, little is known in the context of foresight on the functions and dimension of visualizations.
In: Foresight: the journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy, Band 18, Heft 1, S. 4-23
ISSN: 1465-9832
Purpose– This paper aims to propose a model, based on strategic simulation and scenario planning, to improve the decision-making process in the Brazilian defence area.Design/methodology/approach– Participants are disposed in three levels: decision-makers team – which goes beyond the Ministry of Defence (and military services) alone and includes other representatives of the executive and legislative branches; political and strategic advisory team – civilian representatives with a broad understanding of the national and international contexts that can contribute to developing insights and shaping the forces that may contribute to the nation's future; and experts database— experts in fields of interest to national defence, comprising representatives of several sectors and broad areas of knowledge, including scholars, scientists, politicians, military, industry, among others.Findings– The planning and preparation of national defence strategies require a long-term approach, which is multidisciplinary, participatory and contextualized to the geopolitical and institutional frames of the country.Research limitations/implications– However, despite many policy papers intentions, defence issues have always been considered a matter for the military arena due to the country's cultural background.Practical/implications– Because decisions about defence have long-range impacts and political implications, policy-makers should shape them bearing in mind a complex and politically shared foresight process.Social/implications– This proposed planning process enables a participatory engagement with some civil organizations and individuals as well as amplifies their commitment in national defence issues.Originality/value– The proposal is innovative in South America, considering that it encompasses integrated simulations on participatory foresight processes as well as broadened the civilian–military dynamic relationship and the diverse viewpoints in defence implications analysis to include a wider share of the Brazilian society.
In: Foresight, Band 18, Heft 3, S. 193-203
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of research and innovation futures, sketch the landscape of recent findings in this field with a focus on new ways of doing and organizing knowledge creation and position the contributions to this special issue within that landscape.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper includes a review of literature on the embedding of research and innovation in society, outlines the main domains of current drivers of change and summarises the contributions to the special issue.
Findings
Recent controversies about the future of research and innovation draw on a long-standing trajectory of debate about the role of science, technology and innovation in society, and the balance between autonomy in striving for scientific excellence on the one hand and the quest for social and economic relevance on the other. Six major domains of current and expected future changes in research and innovation are identified, and serve as the backdrop for positioning the more specific contributions to this special issue.
Originality/value
The main value of this contribution is to provide a condensed and original look at emerging directions of change in research and innovation practices and their organisational and institutional embedding in society.