Suchergebnisse

High levels of air pollution pose an urgent social and public health challenge in many Asian regions. This study evaluates the role of key factors that determined the changes in emission levels in China, India and Japan over the past 25 years. While emissions of air pollutants have been declining in Japan since the 1990s, China and India have experienced a rapid growth in pollution levels in recent years. Around 2005, control measures for sulfur emissions started to deliver expected reductions in China, followed by cuts in nitrogen oxides ten years later. Despite recent policy interventions, growing emission trends in India persist. A decomposition analysis of emission-driving factors indicates that emission levels would have been at least two-times higher without the improvements in energy intensity and efficiency, combined with end-of-pipe measures. Due to the continuous reliance on fossil fuels, the abatement effect of a cleaner fuel mix was in most cases significantly smaller than other factors. A reassessment of emission projections developed in the past suggests a decisive impact of energy and environmental policies. It is expected that targeted legislative instruments will play a dominant role in achieving future air-quality goals in Asia.

High levels of air pollution pose an urgent social and public health challenge in many Asian regions. This study evaluates the role of key factors that determined the changes in emission levels in China, India and Japan over the past 25 years. While emissions of air pollutants have been declining in Japan since the 1990s, China and India have experienced a rapid growth in pollution levels in recent years. Around 2005, control measures for sulfur emissions started to deliver expected reductions in China, followed by cuts in nitrogen oxides ten years later. Despite recent policy interventions, growing emission trends in India persist. A decomposition analysis of emission-driving factors indicates that emission levels would have been at least two-times higher without the improvements in energy intensity and efficiency, combined with end-of-pipe measures. Due to the continuous reliance on fossil fuels, the abatement effect of a cleaner fuel mix was in most cases significantly smaller than other factors. A reassessment of emission projections developed in the past suggests a decisive impact of energy and environmental policies. It is expected that targeted legislative instruments will play a dominant role in achieving future air-quality goals in Asia.

Ozone is a highly oxidative compound formed in the lower atmosphere (from gases originating to a large extent from anthropogenic sources) by photochemistry driven by solar radiation. Owing to its highly reactive chemical properties, ozone is harmful to vegetation, materials and human health. In the troposphere, ozone is also an efficient greenhouse gas.This report summarizes the results of a multidisciplinary analysis to assess the effects of ozone on health. The analysis indicates that ozone pollution affects the health of most of the populations of the WHO European Region, leading to a wide

Over the past decade, India has experienced rapid economic growth along with increases in levels of air pollution. Our goal is to examine how alternative policies for air pollution abatement affect well-being there. In particular, we estimate the effects of policies to reduce the levels of ambient fine particulates (PM2.5), which are especially harmful to human health, on well-being, quantified using the United Nations' human development index (HDI). Two of the three dimensions of this index are based on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and life expectancy. Our approach allows reductions in PM2.5 to affect both of them. In particular, economic growth is affected negatively through the costs of the additional pollution control measures and positively through the increased productivity of the population. We consider three scenarios of PM2.5 abatement, corresponding to no further control, current Indian legislation, and current European legislation. The overall effect in both control scenarios is that growth in GDP is virtually unaffected relative to the case of no further controls, life expectancy is higher, and well-being, as measured by the HDI, is improved. In India, air pollution abatement investments clearly improve well-being.

Over the past decade, India has experienced rapid economic growth along with increases in levels of air pollution. Our goal is to examine how alternative policies for air pollution abatement affect well-being there. In particular, we estimate the effects of policies to reduce the levels of ambient fine particulates (PM2.5), which are especially harmful to human health, on well-being, quantified using the United Nations' human development index (HDI). Two of the three dimensions of this index are based on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and life expectancy. Our approach allows reductions in PM2.5 to affect both of them. In particular, economic growth is affected negatively through the costs of the additional pollution control measures and positively through the increased productivity of the population. We consider three scenarios of PM2.5 abatement, corresponding to no further control, current Indian legislation, and current European legislation. The overall effect in both control scenarios is that growth in GDP is virtually unaffected relative to the case of no further controls, life expectancy is higher, and well-being, as measured by the HDI, is improved. In India, air pollution abatement investments clearly improve well-being.

Over the last decades the European Union has established strict air quality objectives, together with a comprehensive legal framework that should facilitate the achievements of these objectives. As a consequence, air quality has drastically improved in Europe, although the long-term objectives are still not met. The EU clean air legislation played an important role in these air quality improvements. Most importantly, the legal framework provided an effective response mechanism strategy to manage the complex interlinkages between the multitude of pollution sources and the regionally dispersed impacts on air quality which span across different legislation. These connections, which are a direct consequence of the physical nature of the key air pollutants (i.e., their long residence time in the atmosphere), make response strategies that extend beyond individual cities and countries indispensable. In order to implement effective policy responses, the area of the European Union is now considered as one airshed containing 27 Member States, and action needs to be coordinated between countries, regions, and city administrations. The clean air legislation of the EU acknowledges that the European Union as a supra-national institution has to play an important coordinating role in the policy response. It has been found practical to combine three legal pillars into a comprehensive EU clean air legislation framework: • The Ambient Air Quality Directives, • The National Emission Ceilings Directive, and • Source-specific performance standards. One important feature of EU policy that contributed to the success is that, in addition to the key obligations for reaching air quality standards and reducing emissions, all directives contain specific requirements and mechanisms for monitoring, reporting, validation and enforcement. Although the recent nature of some of the directives does not always allow for practical experience, systematic stock-taking on the strengths and weaknesses of older legislation has been recently conducted. This report summarizes the findings emerging from these assessments and indicates options for improvements that could be of interest for the design of effective clean air policies in other parts of the world. While the EU legal framework has obviously been developed for the EU situation, there might be important lessons, particularly on monitoring, review and verification, that could provide relevant insights for other countries which face similar complexities in air quality management, e.g., the need to involve multiple governance levels across State borders.

Over the last decades the European Union has established strict air quality objectives, together with a comprehensive legal framework that should facilitate the achievements of these objectives. As a consequence, air quality has drastically improved in Europe, although the long-term objectives are still not met. The EU clean air legislation played an important role in these air quality improvements. Most importantly, the legal framework provided an effective response mechanism strategy to manage the complex interlinkages between the multitude of pollution sources and the regionally dispersed impacts on air quality which span across different legislation. These connections, which are a direct consequence of the physical nature of the key air pollutants (i.e., their long residence time in the atmosphere), make response strategies that extend beyond individual cities and countries indispensable. In order to implement effective policy responses, the area of the European Union is now considered as one airshed containing 27 Member States, and action needs to be coordinated between countries, regions, and city administrations. The clean air legislation of the EU acknowledges that the European Union as a supra-national institution has to play an important coordinating role in the policy response. It has been found practical to combine three legal pillars into a comprehensive EU clean air legislation framework: • The Ambient Air Quality Directives, • The National Emission Ceilings Directive, and • Source-specific performance standards. One important feature of EU policy that contributed to the success is that, in addition to the key obligations for reaching air quality standards and reducing emissions, all directives contain specific requirements and mechanisms for monitoring, reporting, validation and enforcement. Although the recent nature of some of the directives does not always allow for practical experience, systematic stock-taking on the strengths and weaknesses of older legislation has been recently conducted. This report summarizes the findings emerging from these assessments and indicates options for improvements that could be of interest for the design of effective clean air policies in other parts of the world. While the EU legal framework has obviously been developed for the EU situation, there might be important lessons, particularly on monitoring, review and verification, that could provide relevant insights for other countries which face similar complexities in air quality management, e.g., the need to involve multiple governance levels across State borders.

Indian cities, and the megacity of Delhi in particular, have suffered from high air pollution for years. Recent observations show that ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Delhi strongly exceed the Indian national ambient air quality standards as well as the World Health Organization's interim target levels. At the same time, India is experiencing strong urbanization, and both Delhi's emissions as well as the exposed population are growing. Therefore the question arises how PM2.5concentrations will evolve in the future, and how they can be improved efficiently. In the past, typical responses of the Delhi government to high pollution episodes have been restrictions on motorized road traffic, on power plant operations and on construction activities. However, to design sustainable and efficient pollution mitigation measures, the contribution of different source sectors and spatial scales needs to be quantified. Here we combine the established emission calculation scheme of the Greenhouse Gas - Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model with regional chemistry-transport model simulations (0.5◦resolution) as well as local particle dispersion (2×2km resolution) to arrive at a source attribution of ambient PM2.5in Delhi. Calculated concentrations compare well to observations. We find that roughly 60% of total population-weightedPM2.5originates from sources outside the national capital territory of Delhi itself. Consequently, mitigation strategies need to involve neighboring states and address the typical sources there. We discuss the likely evolution of ambient concentrations under different scenarios which assume either current emission control legislation, or application of a Clean Air Scenario foreseeing additional regulations in non-industrial sectors which are often overlooked, such as phase-out of solid fuel cook stoves, and road paving. Only in the case where the Clean Air Scenario is applied both in Delhi as well as in surrounding states, a strong reduction in ambient concentrations is envisaged which would bring PM2.5levels close to the WHO interim targets.

Indian cities, and the megacity of Delhi in particular, have suffered from high air pollution for years. Recent observations show that ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Delhi strongly exceed the Indian national ambient air quality standards as well as the World Health Organization's interim target levels. At the same time, India is experiencing strong urbanization, and both Delhi's emissions as well as the exposed population are growing. Therefore the question arises how PM2.5concentrations will evolve in the future, and how they can be improved efficiently. In the past, typical responses of the Delhi government to high pollution episodes have been restrictions on motorized road traffic, on power plant operations and on construction activities. However, to design sustainable and efficient pollution mitigation measures, the contribution of different source sectors and spatial scales needs to be quantified. Here we combine the established emission calculation scheme of the Greenhouse Gas - Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model with regional chemistry-transport model simulations (0.5◦resolution) as well as local particle dispersion (2×2km resolution) to arrive at a source attribution of ambient PM2.5in Delhi. Calculated concentrations compare well to observations. We find that roughly 60% of total population-weightedPM2.5originates from sources outside the national capital territory of Delhi itself. Consequently, mitigation strategies need to involve neighboring states and address the typical sources there. We discuss the likely evolution of ambient concentrations under different scenarios which assume either current emission control legislation, or application of a Clean Air Scenario foreseeing additional regulations in non-industrial sectors which are often overlooked, such as phase-out of solid fuel cook stoves, and road paving. Only in the case where the Clean Air Scenario is applied both in Delhi as well as in surrounding states, a strong reduction in ambient concentrations is envisaged which would bring PM2.5levels close to the WHO interim targets.

United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has invited world leaders to come to the Climate Summit on September 23, 2014 to deliver "bold pledges" to tackle climate change. This paper was prepared at the request of the Republic of Nauru, Chair of the Alliance of Small Island States, as part of their answer to that call. We believe the path to the global low-carbon transformation needed to tackle the climate crisis is within reach, but requires decisive political action from leaders around the world, now. This paper is unabashedly prescriptive on the need for action, but recognizes that there are multiple approaches and models from around the world that can be scaled up and adapted to national circumstances. Cost-effective technologies for a low-carbon economy are being implemented throughout the world, but at nowhere the scale and speed necessary. Emissions continue to rise. With every year of delay, human suffering, biodiversity loss, and the costs of mitigation and adaptation increase. We are running out of time.

United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has invited world leaders to come to the Climate Summit on September 23, 2014 to deliver "bold pledges" to tackle climate change. This paper was prepared at the request of the Republic of Nauru, Chair of the Alliance of Small Island States, as part of their answer to that call. We believe the path to the global low-carbon transformation needed to tackle the climate crisis is within reach, but requires decisive political action from leaders around the world, now. This paper is unabashedly prescriptive on the need for action, but recognizes that there are multiple approaches and models from around the world that can be scaled up and adapted to national circumstances. Cost-effective technologies for a low-carbon economy are being implemented throughout the world, but at nowhere the scale and speed necessary. Emissions continue to rise. With every year of delay, human suffering, biodiversity loss, and the costs of mitigation and adaptation increase. We are running out of time.

This paper compares three scenarios of energy demand in the European Union until 2010 and analyses their effects on carbon emissions as well as their impacts on the precursor emissions for acidification and ground-level ozone. The analysis links the results of energy model PRIMES with the integrated environmental assessment model RAINS. Important synergies between climate change policies and policies to control regional air pollution have been identified. Mitigation of acidification and ozone according to the current EU strategy will be easier and cheaper if the Kyoto targets for the reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) are to be met. In case when the Kyoto target needs to be achieved by individual EU member countries without trading in CO2 emission rights, the costs of controlling the pollutants contributing to acidification and ground-level ozone can be up to 10% lower than for the baseline scenario which does not assume any climate change policies. Although lower, the effects are also important if trading in carbon emission rights is allowed. These cost savings compensate up to 20% of higher costs of energy supplies in the EU and associated with them welfare losses caused by the necessity to meet the carbon constraint. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

This paper presents the first consistent inventory of emission of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), particulate matter (PM), and carbon dioxide (CO2), for the countries co-operating in the Central European Initiative (CEI): Austria, Croatia, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Italy, Poland, and Slovenia. The inventory is based on national and regional statistics as well as on information from collaborating institutions. National data has been verified and converted into a common format, consistent with the database used by the European Environmental Agency and the European Community ("the CORINAIR" system). The inventory describes emissions in the year 1988, before the restructuring process began in the socialist economies. Data has been collected on the national level, for administrational units and for large point sources. The database on point sources contains specific information on 400 large plants in the region (e.g., capacity, commissioning year, fuel use, production, etc.).

This paper presents the first consistent inventory of emission of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), particulate matter (PM), and carbon dioxide (CO2), for the countries co-operating in the Central European Initiative (CEI): Austria, Croatia, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Italy, Poland, and Slovenia. The inventory is based on national and regional statistics as well as on information from collaborating institutions. National data has been verified and converted into a common format, consistent with the database used by the European Environmental Agency and the European Community ("the CORINAIR" system). The inventory describes emissions in the year 1988, before the restructuring process began in the socialist economies. Data has been collected on the national level, for administrational units and for large point sources. The database on point sources contains specific information on 400 large plants in the region (e.g., capacity, commissioning year, fuel use, production, etc.).

This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs; methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20-year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) emissions by about 50 and 80 %, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high-emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU, the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11.12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with the four ESM were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulation, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70 +/- 0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041-2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22 +/- 0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22 +/- 0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ~ 22 % to this response and CH4 78 %. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90 % of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and BC specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the mission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, possibly because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea ice responses cause relatively strong temperature fluctuations that may counteract (and, thus, mask) the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39-0.49)K the largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in southern Europe, where surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6.21) mm yr^-1 more than 4 % of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE roject.