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AbstractThis paper tests the existence of political credit cycles, the positive comovement between credit and elections. While several single‐country studies point to the existence of this relationship, the link between electoral cycles and credit expansion has seen little exploration at the multicountry level. Using a comprehensive dataset covering bank and non‐bank credit in 165 countries from 1960 to 2013, we show that both government and private credit significantly increase in election years. This finding suggests the possibility that politicians use not only fiscal and monetary policy to court voters, but also implement credit policies such as interest rate subsidies and tax breaks for debt to enhance credit growth. We also find that a higher degree of financial openness weakens the frequency and magnitude of political credit cycles; yet, the conditional effect of financial openness is stronger for developing countries than developed economies.

AbstractIs there a relationship between income inequality and the electoral success of incumbent governments in developing and transitional democracies, and if so, what explains its variations? Using a large N study of national legislative elections in 38 developing and transitional democracies from 1987 to 2016 and controlling for economic growth, inflation, and unemployment rates, this paper tests: (i) whether change in income inequality is negatively associated with the vote share for the incumbent party and (ii) whether the level of media freedom affects the extent of economic voting. Overall, we find evidence that increasing income inequality is negatively and significantly related to the vote share for the incumbent but only in countries with free or somewhat‐free media. Furthermore, consistent with past studies, the most robustly significant economic factor in affecting incumbent vote shares remains economic growth.

This study uses theory from embedded liberalism to reorient the debate over efficiency versus compensation in the trade and welfare literature. We detail the causal mechanisms and provide empirical results that show how welfare spending can be a necessary condition to further trade liberalization. We argue that increases in welfare compensation lead to stronger public support for trade, which allows states to further advance along the path toward trade liberalization. Based on the 1995 and 2003 ISSP (International Social Survey Program) for 10 OECD countries, our multilevel statistical analyses (individual and country level) show that (1) workers in import-exposed sectors tend to strongly oppose trade, but this effect is substantially diminished when they receive unemployment compensation, and (2) public support for free trade is significantly associated with higher levels of trade openness.(International Interactions (London)/ FUB)

Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to test whether financial crises themselves provide some degree of ex post discipline. In other words, is there learning from the mistakes associated with crises? The authors test this hypothesis on credit growth, a frequent contributor to banking crises.


Design/methodology/approach
The study uses statistical tests (comparison of means) on a sample of 72 banking crises, the onset of which occurred between 1980 and 2008. Tests for significance of the difference are conducted using Kolmogorov–Smirnov equality in distribution tests.


Findings
The results show that real credit growth fell substantially (relative to average) by about 8 per cent points from pre- to post-crisis periods, and that average banking regulation and supervision strengthens after a crisis.


Originality/value
This paper provides empirical support for the proposition that while financial markets may fail to give sufficient warning signals before a financial crisis, they may discipline governments to undertake reforms in the aftermath of a crisis.

PurposeThe recurrence of banking crises throughout the 1980s and 1990s, and in the more recent 2008‐09 global financial crisis, has led to an expanding empirical literature on crisis explanation and prediction. The purpose of this paper is to provide an analytical review of proxies for and important determinants of banking crises‐credit growth, financial liberalization, bank regulation and supervision.Design/methodology/approachThe study surveys the banking crisis literature by comparing proxies for and measures of banking crises and policy‐related variables in the literature. Advantages and disadvantages of different proxies are discussed.FindingsDisagreements about determinants of banking crises are in part explained by the difference in the chosen proxies used in empirical models. The usefulness of different proxies depends partly on constraints in terms of time and country coverage but also on what particular policy question is asked.Originality/valueThe study offers a comprehensive analysis of measurements of banking crises, credit growth, financial liberalization and banking regulations and concludes with an assessment of existing proxies and databases. Since, the review points to the choice of proxies that best fit specific research objectives, it should serve as a reference point for empirical researchers in the banking crisis area.

Frontmatter -- Contents -- Tables and figures -- Contributors -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- Glossary -- 1 The decline of Indonesian democracy -- Part 1 Historical and Comparative Perspectives -- 2 Indonesia's democracy in a comparative perspective -- 3 Indonesia's tenuous democratic success and survival -- Part 2 Polarisation and Populism -- 4 How polarised is Indonesia and why does it matter? -- 5 Divided Muslims: militant pluralism, polarisation and democratic backsliding -- 6 Is populism a threat to Indonesian democracy? -- 7 Islamic populism and Indonesia's illiberal democracy -- Part 3 Popular Support for Democracy -- 8 Electoral losers, democratic support and authoritarian nostalgia -- 9 How popular conceptions of democracy shape democratic support in Indonesia -- Part 4 Democratic Institutions -- 10 Indonesian parties revisited: systemic exclusivism, electoral personalisation and declining intraparty democracy -- 11 The media and democratic decline -- 12 The economic dimensions of Indonesia's democratic quality: a subnational approach1 -- 13 A state of surveillance? Freedom of expression under the Jokowi presidency -- Part 5 Law, Security and Disorder -- 14 Assailing accountability: law enforcement politicisation, partisan coercion and executive aggrandisement under the Jokowi administration -- 15 In the state's stead? Vigilantism and policing of religious offence in Indonesia -- 16 Rumour, identity and violence in contemporary Indonesia: evidence from elections in West Kalimantan -- 17 Electoral violence in Indonesia 20 years after reformasi -- Index