Suchergebnisse

The linear model and related generalized linear model (GLM) are important tools for sociologists. If the relationships between y (or in the case of the GLM, the linear predictor η) and the xs are linear, these methods provide elegant summaries of the data. However, these methods fail to adequately model underlying relationships if they are characterized by complex nonlinear patterns. In such cases, nonparametric regression, which allows the functional form between y and x to be determined by the data themselves, is more suitable. There are many types of nonparametric simple regression. I focus on locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (lowess or loess) and smoothing splines because they are the most widely used. I also describe additive and generalized additive models (GAM), which allow modeling of categorical dependent variables, and I explain how these methods can handle both parametric and nonparametric (i.e., lowess and smoothing splines) effects for many predictors. Finally, I briefly introduce the more recent development of the vector generalized additive model (VGAM), which further extends the GAM to handle multivariate dependent variables, and the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM), which allows specification of smooth functions within the mixed model framework.

Après avoir esquissé le système juridictionnel belge comme étant un système de type moniste qui réserve une place prééminente, mais non exclusive aux cours et tribunaux de l'Ordre judiciaire, l'article expose, dans ses grandes lignes, le régime de nominations des juges. Dans l'Ordre judiciaire, ce régime a évolué dans le sens d'une objectivisation croissante. L'instauration d'un stage judiciaire et d'un examen d'aptitude professionnelle d'abord, la création d'un Conseil supérieur de la justice ensuite y ont contribué dans une mesure significative. Autre évolution marquante : la gestion managériale des juridictions se manifestant notamment par la désignation de chefs de corps désignés à ces fonctions sur la base d'un plan de gestion et évalués en fonction des résultats obtenus. Quant aux juges constitutionnels et administratifs, leur nomination, à laquelle est associé le pouvoir législatif, est le fruit de subtils équilibres destinés à assurer leur représentativité tout en garantissant leur objectivité (Contribution au colloque « L'Etat en marche, transparence et reddition des comptes », qui s'est tenu à Ottawa les 24 et 25 mars 2006). ; The jurisdictional system in Belgium is monistic so the courts play a pre-eminent but not exclusive role. The author explains how judges are nominated in such a jurisdiction. The Belgian regime evolved and appears more objective today. Requirements of a professional training and of an examination process coupled with the set up of the "Conseil supérieur de la justice" significantly contributed to the improvement of this regime as also a better management, including the designation of a chief executive, did the same. Regarding administrative and constitutional judges, the nomination process calls for the participation of the legislative body and takes into account conditions of representativeness and objectivity

Après avoir esquissé le système juridictionnel belge comme étant un système de type moniste qui réserve une place prééminente, mais non exclusive aux cours et tribunaux de l'Ordre judiciaire, l'article expose, dans ses grandes lignes, le régime de nominations des juges. Dans l'Ordre judiciaire, ce régime a évolué dans le sens d'une objectivisation croissante. L'instauration d'un stage judiciaire et d'un examen d'aptitude professionnelle d'abord, la création d'un Conseil supérieur de la justice ensuite y ont contribué dans une mesure significative. Autre évolution marquante : la gestion managériale des juridictions se manifestant notamment par la désignation de chefs de corps désignés à ces fonctions sur la base d'un plan de gestion et évalués en fonction des résultats obtenus. Quant aux juges constitutionnels et administratifs, leur nomination, à laquelle est associé le pouvoir législatif, est le fruit de subtils équilibres destinés à assurer leur représentativité tout en garantissant leur objectivité (Contribution au colloque « L'Etat en marche, transparence et reddition des comptes », qui s'est tenu à Ottawa les 24 et 25 mars 2006). ; The jurisdictional system in Belgium is monistic so the courts play a pre-eminent but not exclusive role. The author explains how judges are nominated in such a jurisdiction. The Belgian regime evolved and appears more objective today. Requirements of a professional training and of an examination process coupled with the set up of the "Conseil supérieur de la justice" significantly contributed to the improvement of this regime as also a better management, including the designation of a chief executive, did the same. Regarding administrative and constitutional judges, the nomination process calls for the participation of the legislative body and takes into account conditions of representativeness and objectivity

The Gelman-King theory of enlightened preferences holds that the mass media play an important role in enlightening vote choices during election campaigns in the United States. This article adapts this theory to the electoral cycle in Britain. It also expands the theory to consider the media's role in facilitating consistent attitudes. Using data from the 1992-1997 British Election Panel Study, the author finds that attitudinal consistency and enlightened party preferences were highest immediately following elections. Moreover, there were significant differences according to the type of newspapers voters read, with broadsheet readers being the most enlightened. These findings suggest that enlightened preferences theory has wider applicability than simply US election campaigns.

This paper addresses television & newspaper reporting of pre-election polls during the 1997 Canadian Election, examining both the emphasis given to polls, & the quality of reporting of methodological information. The findings suggest that the media relied heavily on polls to chart the dynamics of the campaign, practicing horse-race journalism at the expense of coverage of substantive campaign issues. Polls were typically treated as matters of fact, with their limitations rarely discussed. Moreover, seldom was more than scant methodological information provided for polls, inhibiting the public's ability to evaluate their results. 3 Tables, 39 References. Adapted from the source document.

The Arias Peace Plan was able to further the process of peace in Central America in part because it was an ad hoc multilateral process composed of countries of the Central American region, thus representing a bridge from the region's tradition of unilateral intervention by the United States to the more recent experience of involvement by formal multilateral agencies such as the United Nations and the Organization of American States. The plan's success derived also from the fact that in each of the phases of the process—conceptualization, negotiation, and implementation‐Costa Rican president Oscar Arias and his team recognized and capitalized upon changing global and regional environments that were increasingly conducive to conflict resolution.