Suchergebnisse

Time‐varying parameter estimation techniques are used to discover whether countries in the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) experienced a regime change to a lower degree of persistence for both wage inflation and unemployment in the 1980s. The results show that the persistence of wage inflation may have changed over the 1980s for some countries but that this experience was not unique to ERM membership (although the time profile of the persistence parameter for some ERM member countries corresponds to policy shifts related to ERM membership). Furthermore, only a few countries show a decline in the persistence of unemployment in the 1980s.

The process of globalisation has been ongoing for centuries, but few would doubt that it has accelerated and intensified in recent decades. This acceleration is evidenced as much by the strong synchronicity in the rapid transmission of financial crises starting in late 2007 as it is by the decade of almost unprecedented growth in international trade and financial market liberalisation that preceded it. This book shows how the international economy has become more connected via increased production, trade, capital flows and financial linkages. Using a variety of methodologies, including both panel econometrics and DSGE modelling, a team of experts from academia, central banks and the IMF examine how this increased globalisation has affected competitiveness, productivity, inflation and the labour market. This timely contribution to the globalisation literature provides a longer-term perspective while also evaluating some of the potential implications for policy makers, particularly from a European perspective.

Although there have been major globalisation episodes prior to the current one, previous globalisation experiences did not seem as pervasive as the episode which began in the last quarter of the twentieth century. It is claimed that the current globalisation wave is causing social disruption: redistributing income from poor to rich, and displacing vulnerable workers. This book provides a careful investigation into the impacts of globalisation on the labour market. Globalization and the labour market examines the relative decline in the economic fortunes of unskilled workers in the major industrialised countries over the last thirty years. In the United States and United Kingdom this has resulted in a relative decline in the wages of unskilled workers. In the 'continental' European economies it has tended to manifest itself in the least skilled facing a higher probability of being unemployed or of being unemployed for longer. Many make the case that globalisation was responsible for this. But globalisation is not the only possible explanation. The last 30 years have also been a period of significant technological change - impressive both in its scale and speed. This has increased the demand for skilled workers and made them better off in economic terms. The contributions contained in this volume provide a detailed insight into how the labour market impacts of globalisation differ across different firms, industries and countries and how the impacts of technology and trade are intertwined. The analysis contained within this book will make it invaluable to academic researchers and policy makers.

Structural policies in the euro area are of great interest for the Eurosystem, particularly as they can support the smooth functioning of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the effectiveness of monetary policy. This paper adopts a broad definition of structural policies, analysing not only the benefits of efficient labour, product and financial market regulations, but also emphasising the importance of good governance and efficient institutions that ensure high quality and impartial public services, the rule of law and the control of rent-seeking. The paper concludes that there are many opportunities for enhanced structural policies in EU and euro area countries which can yield substantial gains by boosting long-term income and employment growth and supporting social fairness, also via better and more equal opportunities. It provides empirical and model-based analyses on the impacts and the interactions of structural policies, highlighting synergies between growth and inclusiveness, while acknowledging that structural policy changes need to be country-specific to reflect national conditions and social preferences. Well-designed structural policies would also strengthen economic resilience and convergence of Member States, bringing the euro area closer to the requirements of an optimal currency area and improving the transmission of monetary policy. The paper also discusses the political economy causes of the sluggish implementation of socially beneficial structural policies and assesses ways to deal with possible short-term costs of reforms.