Suchergebnisse

Notre étude du concept de taux naturel de chômage a comme objectif une réflexion sur le concept et sa possible utilisation comme indicateur de politique économique. Après la réflexion faite sur le concept (I), nous présentons les principaux modèles théoriques qui déterminent le taux (II). Au-delà des problèmes soulevés par l'estimation économétrique, nous proposons, pour l'économie portugaise, une étude fondée sur des séries trimestrielles (III). Finalement nous concluons (IV). ; This paper presents some of the conclusions reached by us in the framework of a broader research on the Natural Rate of Unemployment (NRU). Our main aim is to ascertain the NRH properties as an economic indicator, placing special emphasis on the Portuguese economy. First we review the concept of NRU. Secondly we compare the two most important types of NRU models: the Phillips model, updated by Gordon's "triangle" model (1997) and Layard, Nickell and Jackman's model (1991) updated by Blanchard's version (1999). The economic and social factors leading to the existence of a short or medium-run varying NRU (NAIRU) or to the non-existence of a long-run NRU (NAIRU) are emphasised. Thirdly, some of the major difficulties concerning the econometric analysis of the NRU are pointed out. Fourthly, with a non-linear version of Elmeskov method we obtain a very stable and predictable series of the NRU dependent on cyclical and trend output. The AIC criterion leads to a long memory model. A near-VECM model produces impulse responses that confirm our previous results of hysteresis in unemployment rate. Finally we conclude.

The aim of this study is to analyse the exchange rate and interest rate distribution and volatility under the participation of the Portuguese economy in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS) based on some of the main predictions of the target zone literature. Portugal adopted this exchange rate target zone from April 6 1992 until December 31 1998. During this period, the exchange rate distribution reveals that the majority of the observations lie close to the central parity, thus rejecting one of the key predictions of the Paul Krugman (1991) model. The analysis of the data also shows that exchange rate volatility tended to increase as the exchange rate approached the edges of the band, contrary to the predictions of the basic model. Interest rate differential volatility, on the other hand, seemed to behave in line with theoretical predictions. This suggests an increase in the credibility of monetary policy, allowing us to conclude that the adoption of a target zone has contributed decisively to the creation of the macroeconomic stability conditions necessary for the participation in the European Monetary Union (EMU). The Portuguese integration process should therefore be considered as an example to be followed by other small open economies in transition to the euro area.