Suchergebnisse

ABSTRACTGreenhouse gas emissions from the forestry sector are estimated to be 8.4 GtCO2-eq./year or about 17% of the global emissions. We estimate that the cost for reducing deforestation is low in Africa and several times higher in Latin America and Southeast Asia. These cost estimates are sensitive to the uncertainties of how much unsustainable high-revenue logging occurs, little understood transaction and program implementation costs, and barriers to implementation including governance issues. Due to lack of capacity in the affected countries, achieving reduction or avoidance of carbon emissions will require extensive REDD-plus programs. Preliminary REDD-plus Readiness cost estimates and program descriptions for Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Guyana and Mexico show that roughly one-third of potential REDD-plus mitigation benefits might come from avoided deforestation and the rest from avoided forest degradation and other REDD-plus activities.

This paper reports on the global potential for carbon sequestration in forest plantations, and the reduction of carbon emissions from deforestation, in response to six carbon price scenarios from 2000 to 2100. These carbon price scenarios cover a range typically seen in global integrated assessment models. The world forest sector was disaggregated into ten regions, four largely temperate, developed regions: the European Union, Oceania, Russia, and the United States; and six developing, mostly tropical, regions: Africa, Central America, China, India, Rest of Asia, and South America. Three mitigation options -- long- and short-rotation forestry, and the reduction of deforestation -- were analyzed using a global dynamic partial equilibrium model (GCOMAP). Key findings of this work are that cumulative carbon gain ranges from 50.9 to 113.2 Gt C by 2100, higher carbon prices early lead to earlier carbon gain and vice versa, and avoided deforestation accounts for 51 to 78 percent of modeled carbon gains by 2100. The estimated present value of cumulative welfare change in the sector ranges from a decline of $158 billion to a gain of $81 billion by 2100. The decline is associated with a decrease in deforestation.