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Measuring inflation expectations ofthe Russian population with the help of machine learning
In: Voprosy ėkonomiki: ežemesjačnyj žurnal, Heft 6, S. 71-93
The paper proposes a new approach to measure inflation expectations of the Russian population based on text mining of information on the Internet with the help of machine learning techniques. Two indicators were constructed on the base of readers' comments to inflation news in major Russian economic media available in the web at the period from 2014 through 2016: with the help of words frequency and sentiment analysis of comments content. During the whole considered period of time both indicators were characterized by dynamics adequate to the development of macroeconomic situation and were also able to forecast dynamics of official Bank of Russia indicators of population inflation expectations for approximately one month in advance.
Development Of Software–Hardware System for Real Time Simulation of Electric Power System with Smart Grids
The design and research of electric power system (EPS) with smart grids (SG), which are the current world trend of modern electric power industry, requires solving a large number of non-trivial tasks. The developed technical solutions and used equipment are novel for the world practice. Therefore, their implementation requires careful analysis and an individual approach to research that provides an assessment of the impact of new network elements on the power system. All of this puts requirements on the tools and methods of research used to solve such problems. At present, digital systems for modelling EPS with SG based on the application of numerical methods are used as such tools. However, despite the high level of these developments, it has drawbacks. The use of incomplete and invalid information obtained by digital tools can lead to the wrong design and operational decision in real power system, which can cause blackouts. The alternative approach for solving the problem of detailed simulation of EPS with SG is the creation of hybrid system based on the principle of combining different modelling methods. Hybrid Real-Time Power System Simulator (HRTSim) is developed based on this approach and presented in the paper. ; This work was supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation under the governmental grant "Science" 13.5852.2017/BCH (Development of the concept for comprehensive validation of calculating modes and processes in electric power system and tools of its realization).
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The Afterglows Of Swift-Era Gamma-Ray Bursts. I. Comparing Pre-Swift And Swift-Era Long/Soft (Type II) Grb Optical Afterglows
We have gathered optical photometry data from the literature on a large sample of Swift-era gamma-ray burst (GRB) afterglows including GRBs up to 2009 September, for a total of 76 GRBs, and present an additional three pre-Swift GRBs not included in an earlier sample. Furthermore, we publish 840 additional new photometry data points on a total of 42 GRB afterglows, including large data sets for GRBs 050319, 050408, 050802, 050820A, 050922C, 060418, 080413A, and 080810. We analyzed the light curves of all GRBs in the sample and derived spectral energy distributions for the sample with the best data quality, allowing us to estimate the host-galaxy extinction. We transformed the afterglow light curves into an extinction-corrected z = 1 system and compared their luminosities with a sample of pre-Swift afterglows. The results of a former study, which showed that GRB afterglows clustered and exhibited a bimodal distribution in luminosity space, are weakened by the larger sample. We found that the luminosity distribution of the two afterglow samples (Swift-era and pre-Swift) is very similar, and that a subsample for which we were not able to estimate the extinction, which is fainter than the main sample, can be explained by assuming a moderate amount of line-of-sight host extinction. We derived bolometric isotropic energies for all GRBs in our sample, and found only a tentative correlation between the prompt energy release and the optical afterglow luminosity at 1 day after the GRB in the z = 1 system. A comparative study of the optical luminosities of GRB afterglows with echelle spectra (which show a high number of foreground absorbing systems) and those without, reveals no indication that the former are statistically significantly more luminous. Furthermore, we propose the existence of an upper ceiling on afterglow luminosities and study the luminosity distribution at early times, which was not accessible before the advent of the Swift satellite. Most GRBs feature afterglows that are dominated by the forward shock from early times on. Finally, we present the first indications of a class of long GRBs, which form a bridge between the typical high-luminosity, high-redshift events and nearby low-luminosity events (which are also associated with spectroscopic supernovae) in terms of energetics and observed redshift distribution, indicating a continuous distribution overall. ; DFG Kl 766/13-2 ; NASA NNG 05GC22G, NNG06GH62G ; Spanish research programs ESP2005-07714-C03-03, AYA2004-01515 ; Instrument Center for Danish Astrophysics ; Danish National Science Fundation G2007101421517916 ; CRDF RP1-2394-MO-02 ; TUBITAK ; IKI ; KSU RTT150, 998,999 ; Korea government (MEST) 2010-0000712 ; NSh-4224.2008.2 ; RFBR-09-02-97013-p-povolzh'e-a ; Astronomy
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