Suchergebnisse

Lithuania became European and World market share, arose the problem to evaluate not only internal but also external factors, when forecasting agricultural production, consumption and foreign trade. This can be done using econometric models, which allow consider the European Union (EU) and World balance sheets components forecasts and project developments of the Lithuanian agriculture. Objective of the study - to prepare forecast for the agricultural and food sector up to the year 2020. Tasks of the study: 1. To analyze the models used for the agricultural and food sector projections and select the most suitable in respect to the conditions of the country; 2. To identify indicators that affect the Lithuanian agriculture and food sector development; 3. To analyze and project the EU and national support influence for the developments of different agricultural and food sector branches; 4. To propose and assess forecasts of the main crop and livestock production balance sheets. Statistical data analysis, experts' interview and econometric sectoral modeline are used in the research study. The analysis is performed for main agricultural sectors using economic and manufacturing indicators for 2000‐2008. The first section consists of review of agricultural and food sectors forecasting models and research study methodology preparation. Lithuanian and EU macroeconomic assumptions, which have influence on agricultural and food sector development, are proposed in the second chapter. The third chapter consists of analysis and evaluation of current EU and national support influence on agricultural and food sector development. There are prognoses of crop (grains, rapes, sugar beet, potatoes) and animal (meat milk) sectors balance sheets up to the year 2020 in the fourth and fifth chapters.

Lithuania became European and World market share, arose the problem to evaluate not only internal but also external factors, when forecasting agricultural production, consumption and foreign trade. This can be done using econometric models, which allow consider the European Union (EU) and World balance sheets components forecasts and project developments of the Lithuanian agriculture. Objective of the study - to prepare forecast for the agricultural and food sector up to the year 2020. Tasks of the study: 1. To analyze the models used for the agricultural and food sector projections and select the most suitable in respect to the conditions of the country; 2. To identify indicators that affect the Lithuanian agriculture and food sector development; 3. To analyze and project the EU and national support influence for the developments of different agricultural and food sector branches; 4. To propose and assess forecasts of the main crop and livestock production balance sheets. Statistical data analysis, experts' interview and econometric sectoral modeline are used in the research study. The analysis is performed for main agricultural sectors using economic and manufacturing indicators for 2000‐2008. The first section consists of review of agricultural and food sectors forecasting models and research study methodology preparation. Lithuanian and EU macroeconomic assumptions, which have influence on agricultural and food sector development, are proposed in the second chapter. The third chapter consists of analysis and evaluation of current EU and national support influence on agricultural and food sector development. There are prognoses of crop (grains, rapes, sugar beet, potatoes) and animal (meat milk) sectors balance sheets up to the year 2020 in the fourth and fifth chapters.

Lithuania became European and World market share, arose the problem to evaluate not only internal but also external factors, when forecasting agricultural production, consumption and foreign trade. This can be done using econometric models, which allow consider the European Union (EU) and World balance sheets components forecasts and project developments of the Lithuanian agriculture. Objective of the study - to prepare forecast for the agricultural and food sector up to the year 2020. Tasks of the study: 1. To analyze the models used for the agricultural and food sector projections and select the most suitable in respect to the conditions of the country; 2. To identify indicators that affect the Lithuanian agriculture and food sector development; 3. To analyze and project the EU and national support influence for the developments of different agricultural and food sector branches; 4. To propose and assess forecasts of the main crop and livestock production balance sheets. Statistical data analysis, experts' interview and econometric sectoral modeline are used in the research study. The analysis is performed for main agricultural sectors using economic and manufacturing indicators for 2000‐2008. The first section consists of review of agricultural and food sectors forecasting models and research study methodology preparation. Lithuanian and EU macroeconomic assumptions, which have influence on agricultural and food sector development, are proposed in the second chapter. The third chapter consists of analysis and evaluation of current EU and national support influence on agricultural and food sector development. There are prognoses of crop (grains, rapes, sugar beet, potatoes) and animal (meat milk) sectors balance sheets up to the year 2020 in the fourth and fifth chapters.

Lithuania became European and World market share, arose the problem to evaluate not only internal but also external factors, when forecasting agricultural production, consumption and foreign trade. This can be done using econometric models, which allow consider the European Union (EU) and World balance sheets components forecasts and project developments of the Lithuanian agriculture. Objective of the study - to prepare forecast for the agricultural and food sector up to the year 2020. Tasks of the study: 1. To analyze the models used for the agricultural and food sector projections and select the most suitable in respect to the conditions of the country; 2. To identify indicators that affect the Lithuanian agriculture and food sector development; 3. To analyze and project the EU and national support influence for the developments of different agricultural and food sector branches; 4. To propose and assess forecasts of the main crop and livestock production balance sheets. Statistical data analysis, experts' interview and econometric sectoral modeline are used in the research study. The analysis is performed for main agricultural sectors using economic and manufacturing indicators for 2000‐2008. The first section consists of review of agricultural and food sectors forecasting models and research study methodology preparation. Lithuanian and EU macroeconomic assumptions, which have influence on agricultural and food sector development, are proposed in the second chapter. The third chapter consists of analysis and evaluation of current EU and national support influence on agricultural and food sector development. There are prognoses of crop (grains, rapes, sugar beet, potatoes) and animal (meat milk) sectors balance sheets up to the year 2020 in the fourth and fifth chapters.

Profitable agricultural activity provides a stable self-sufficiency with agricultural and food products. Positive structural production changes have been reached in the Lithuanian agrarian sector while implementing EU common agricultural policy measures. However, due to both external and internal factors influence differences, profitability of separate agricultural branches and products vary a lot and may have a negative impact on the rational agricultural production changes. The aim of the research is to provide the rational decisions of profitability increase in agrarian sector using mathematical model. The tasks of the research are: to perform comparative analysis of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector; to prepare mathematical model for agrarian sector profit forecasting and formulate assumptions for the model application; to evaluate factors influencing agrarian sector profit and provide their forecast up to the year 2013. Results of the research: evaluation of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector economic indicators show that Lithuanian agrarian sector, having unequal level of competitive abilities, stands behind. Therefore it is necessary to use efficiently available external (support, prices) and internal (costs) reserves. Mathematical model has been prepared for agrarian sector profit and its scenarios forecasting, in consideration with different assumptions (actual and normative production costs, different direct payments levels) up to the year 2013. Forecasting results and scenario analysis show that optimization of production costs leads to higher profit, prices and direct payments increase profitability of the agricultural production at different level. Recommendations for the sustainable development of agricultural sector and policy measures improvements are proposed.

Profitable agricultural activity provides a stable self-sufficiency with agricultural and food products. Positive structural production changes have been reached in the Lithuanian agrarian sector while implementing EU common agricultural policy measures. However, due to both external and internal factors influence differences, profitability of separate agricultural branches and products vary a lot and may have a negative impact on the rational agricultural production changes. The aim of the research is to provide the rational decisions of profitability increase in agrarian sector using mathematical model. The tasks of the research are: to perform comparative analysis of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector; to prepare mathematical model for agrarian sector profit forecasting and formulate assumptions for the model application; to evaluate factors influencing agrarian sector profit and provide their forecast up to the year 2013. Results of the research: evaluation of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector economic indicators show that Lithuanian agrarian sector, having unequal level of competitive abilities, stands behind. Therefore it is necessary to use efficiently available external (support, prices) and internal (costs) reserves. Mathematical model has been prepared for agrarian sector profit and its scenarios forecasting, in consideration with different assumptions (actual and normative production costs, different direct payments levels) up to the year 2013. Forecasting results and scenario analysis show that optimization of production costs leads to higher profit, prices and direct payments increase profitability of the agricultural production at different level. Recommendations for the sustainable development of agricultural sector and policy measures improvements are proposed.

Profitable agricultural activity provides a stable self-sufficiency with agricultural and food products. Positive structural production changes have been reached in the Lithuanian agrarian sector while implementing EU common agricultural policy measures. However, due to both external and internal factors influence differences, profitability of separate agricultural branches and products vary a lot and may have a negative impact on the rational agricultural production changes. The aim of the research is to provide the rational decisions of profitability increase in agrarian sector using mathematical model. The tasks of the research are: to perform comparative analysis of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector; to prepare mathematical model for agrarian sector profit forecasting and formulate assumptions for the model application; to evaluate factors influencing agrarian sector profit and provide their forecast up to the year 2013. Results of the research: evaluation of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector economic indicators show that Lithuanian agrarian sector, having unequal level of competitive abilities, stands behind. Therefore it is necessary to use efficiently available external (support, prices) and internal (costs) reserves. Mathematical model has been prepared for agrarian sector profit and its scenarios forecasting, in consideration with different assumptions (actual and normative production costs, different direct payments levels) up to the year 2013. Forecasting results and scenario analysis show that optimization of production costs leads to higher profit, prices and direct payments increase profitability of the agricultural production at different level. Recommendations for the sustainable development of agricultural sector and policy measures improvements are proposed.

Profitable agricultural activity provides a stable self-sufficiency with agricultural and food products. Positive structural production changes have been reached in the Lithuanian agrarian sector while implementing EU common agricultural policy measures. However, due to both external and internal factors influence differences, profitability of separate agricultural branches and products vary a lot and may have a negative impact on the rational agricultural production changes. The aim of the research is to provide the rational decisions of profitability increase in agrarian sector using mathematical model. The tasks of the research are: to perform comparative analysis of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector; to prepare mathematical model for agrarian sector profit forecasting and formulate assumptions for the model application; to evaluate factors influencing agrarian sector profit and provide their forecast up to the year 2013. Results of the research: evaluation of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector economic indicators show that Lithuanian agrarian sector, having unequal level of competitive abilities, stands behind. Therefore it is necessary to use efficiently available external (support, prices) and internal (costs) reserves. Mathematical model has been prepared for agrarian sector profit and its scenarios forecasting, in consideration with different assumptions (actual and normative production costs, different direct payments levels) up to the year 2013. Forecasting results and scenario analysis show that optimization of production costs leads to higher profit, prices and direct payments increase profitability of the agricultural production at different level. Recommendations for the sustainable development of agricultural sector and policy measures improvements are proposed.