Suchergebnisse

"Erwerbslosigkeitsraten in allen Regionen des UK sind jetzt ähnlicher als vor vielen Jahren. Ist die langjährige Kluft zwischen dem Abschneiden des Stellenmarkts im Norden und Süden wirklich kleiner geworden? Interregionale Abweichungen in Erwerbslosigkeitsraten - ein aufschlussreicheres Anzeichen als die Relation der Erwerbslosenraten - legen nahe, dass dem nicht so ist. Im relativ notleidenden Nordosten Englands ist der Anteil der Männer im erwerbsfähigen Alter doppelt so groß wie im verhältnismäßig wohlhabenden Süden. Noch auffälliger ist das Nord/Südgefälle bei der Zusammensetzung der Erwerbslosigkeit, die hier mit Hilfe einer Analyse von Kompositdaten quantifiziert wird. Der Teil der Arbeitslosen, der 'aus Krankheitsgründen oder wegen Invalidität' untätig ist, steht in positiver Beziehung zur Erwerbslosenrate, und da der Anteil der Erwerbslosen, die krank oder Invaliden sind, mit zunehmendem Alter ansteigt, verbinden sich diese beiden Einflüsse und bringen ganz außergewöhnliche Gefälle in den Regionen des UK zustande. In Nordostengland arbeiten z.B. beinahe die Hälfte aller 60-64jährigen Männer wegen Krankheit oder Invalidität nicht; das ist das dreifache des Anteils im Südosten. Offensichtlich sollte Konvergenz der regionalen Arbeitsmarktleistung nicht in die Vorteile eingeschlossen werden, die man dem weitgehend bewunderten 'elastischen' Arbeitsmarktsystem des UK zuschreibt." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

The state of the balance of payments and of the government's budget deficit have become increasingly important in the discussion and formulation of macroeconomic policy and yet the nature of the links between these two « targets » and their connection with the functioning of the economy often seems somewhat obscure. A unified treatment of these issues is made possible though, by using the properties of the relationship between flows of private income and expenditure, which yields a relatively precise account of the sources of growth in national income and the associated factors determining the evolution of the balance of payments and the budget deficit over the last two decades. Not only can such an approach help to identify the proximate causes of the unforeseen doubling of France's external deficit in 1982, but it also provides a tool for simply and rapidly examining the implications for the budget and the balance of payments of changes in fiscal policy and in foreign trade performance.

The measurement of corporate profits has been a controversial subject almost since the emergence of national accounting in it's modern form in the mid-1930's. A particular difficulty has always surrounded the treatment of changes in the value of the stocks of goods held by enterprises since these are generally measured by national accountants in a way which differs from their treatment by private accountants. The difference derives from the practice adopted in the national accounts of deducting « stock appreciation » (the change in the cost of replacing those stocks used up during an accounting period) from business profits and the value of stockbuilding. Although this deduction has little effect when the rate of inflation is low and relatively stable it becomes larger, and more important, when making comparisons across years when inflation has been relatively high and variable. Among the effects of such a deduction is to reduce both the ratio of profits to sales and the self-financing ratio in periods of relatively rapid inflation and increase them both when inflation slows down ; moreover such a practice can affect quite significantly the inferences made about the factors which determine the bahaviour of these two ratios. An alternative approach to measurement, which follows private accounting practice by including stock appreciation, leads to the conclusion that the profit share in France has been at much the same level since the mid-1 970's as it was during most of the 1960's and that there has been little evidence of a strong trend in the self-financing ratio over the last two decades.

International audience ; This paper explores the determinants of the proportion of the working age male population claiming incapacity benefits (IB), across the eleven British Government Office Regions, for the period 1998-2006. Three different approaches are adopted to modelling register dynamics: first treating IB stocks as if they were trend-stationary, albeit with persistence, and estimating reduced form models for their logs; second treating IB stocks as if they were non-stationary and examining their long run determinants plus short run equilibrium reversion properties; third focusing on the determinants of gross inflows and outflows that together drive IB stocks. Given the nature of the data no approach is ideal, yet the models provide reasonably robust evidence that labour market changes - specifically falling unemployment rates and rising real earnings - have contributed to falling male IB stocks over the period.

This paper explores the determinants of the proportion of the working age male population claiming incapacity benefits (IB), across the eleven British Government Office Regions, for the period 1998-2006. Three different approaches are adopted to modelling register dynamics: first treating IB stocks as if they were trend-stationary, albeit with persistence, and estimating reduced form models for their logs; second treating IB stocks as if they were non-stationary and examining their long run determinants plus short run equilibrium reversion properties; third focusing on the determinants of gross inflows and outflows that together drive IB stocks. Given the nature of the data no approach is ideal, yet the models provide reasonably robust evidence that labour market changes – specifically falling unemployment rates and rising real earnings – have contributed to falling male IB stocks over the period.

The authors use VAT data to shed light on the pattern of variation in business birth rates across the local authority areas of the United Kingdom. They seek to provide policymakers with a more realistic assessment of the extent to which their interventions might be able to affect the rate of new-business formation. An empirical investigation of the separate impacts of sector, specialisation, and space, suggests that the share of business-services businesses in the business stock seems to play the largest role in accounting for the spatial distribution of the business birth rate across the United Kingdom; and that this share is significantly influenced by the spatial pattern of population density. Policies which involve setting 'targets' for business birth rates need to take the local 'context' into account and, perhaps more importantly, aspirations may have to change: it seems unlikely that stimulation of business birth rates should realistically be expected to close the 'enterprise gap' between different parts of the country.

peer-reviewed ; The extraordinary growth of the Irish economy since the mid-1990s - the 'Celtic Tiger' - has attracted a great deal of interest, commentary and research. Indeed, many countries look to Ireland as an economic development role model, and it has been suggested that Ireland might provide key lessons for other EU members as they seek to achieve the objectives set out in the Lisbon Agenda. Much of the discussion of Ireland's growth has focused on its possible triggers: the long term consequences of the late 1980s fiscal stabilisation; EU structural funds; education; wage moderation; and devaluation of the Irish punt. The industrial policy perspective has highlighted the importance of inflows of foreign direct investment, but a notable absence from the discourse on the 'Celtic Tiger' has been any mention of the role of new business venture creation and entrepreneurship. In this paper we use unpublished Irish VAT data for the years 1988 to 2004 to provide the first detailed look at national trends in business birth and death rates in Ireland over the 'take-off' period. We also use sub-national VAT data to shed light on spatial trends in new venture creation.

peer-reviewed ; The extraordinary growth of the Irish economy - the 'Celtic Tiger' - since the mid-1990s has attracted a great deal of interest, commentary and research. Indeed, many countries are now looking to Ireland as an economic development role model, and The Sapir Report (2003) has suggested that Ireland should be seen as providing key lessons for other EU countries with regards to realising the objectives set out in the Lisbon Agenda. Much of the discussion of Ireland's growth has focussed around growth triggers such as: the long term consequences of fiscal stabilisation of the late 1980s; EU structural funds; education; wage moderation; devaluations of the Irish punt. From an industrial policy perspective, the focus has been on the importance of FDI inflows and to a lesser extent on the performance of an indigenous stock of firms to Ireland's growth record. A notable absence from the industrial policy discourse on the 'Celtic Tiger' has been any consideration of the role of new business venture creation and entrepreneurship. In this paper we use unpublished annual Irish VAT data for the period 1988-2004 to provide the first detailed look at national and regional trends in business birth and death rates in Ireland. We also undertake a sub-national analysis of the Irish VAT data to understand more clearly the importance of new venture creation to past and emerging spatial trends in Ireland. Our conclusion is that new business formation made no detectable contribution to the acceleration of Ireland's growth in the late 1990s.

Flows of European Official Development Assistance (ODA) have, in the past, not only provided finance for the development programmes of the Third World but also contributed to their demand for European exports. The prospects for this source of demand are constrained, both by slower growth in Europe and by policies aimed at cutting government spending. Moreover, the setback to economic progress in many of the poorest parts of the Third World which will result may well be reinforced by the maintainance of the existing geographical allocation of ODA which serves to reinforce a pattern of economic development dating from the colonial era.