Suchergebnisse

1. Accurate quantification of biodiversity can be demanding and expensive. Although environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding can facilitate biodiversity assessments through non-invasive, cost-efficient, and rapid surveys, the approach struggles to outperform traditional morphological approaches in providing reliable quantitative estimates for surveyed species (e.g., abundance and biomass). ; 2. We present an integrated methodology for improving biodiversity surveys that pairs eDNA metabarcoding with morphological data, following a series of taxonomic and geographic filters. We demonstrate its power by applying it to a new spatiotemporal dataset generated on an Iberian-wide distributed aquatic mesocosm infrastructure that spans a wide biogeographic gradient. ; 3. By building upon the strengths that these two approaches offer, our framework improved taxonomic resolution for 30% of the taxa and enabled species' traits (e.g., body-size) and abundance to be assigned to 85% of the taxa in hybrid datasets. ; 4. These results indicate that eDNA-based assessments can complement, but not always replace, conventional approaches. Integrating conventional and modern eDNA metabarcoding approaches, already available in the ecologist's toolbox, will greatly enhance biodiversity assessments. ; This work was supported by the Portuguese Science and Technology Foundation (FCT) through the scientific projects TrophicResponses - Trophic responses to macroecological gradients (PTDC/BIA-BIC/0352/2014), and StateShifts - Predicting state shifts in energetic food webs under climate change (PTDC/AAG-MAA/3764/2014). This work was also funded by FEDER funds through the COMPETE 2020 Programme and National Funds through FCT under the project number POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007688 and PTDC/CTA-AMB/30793/2017 (AdaptAlentejo – Predicting ecosystem-level responses to climate change). The Iberian Pond network has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant Nos 731065 (AQUACOSM) and 871081 (AQUACOSM-plus). CLP acknowledges support by the Portuguese Science and Technology Foundation (FCT) through PhD studentship (SFRH/BD/102020/2014). ; We acknowledge support of the publication fee by the CSIC Open Access Publication Support Initiative through its Unit of Information Resources for Research (URICI). ; Peer reviewed

Research Article - Ecology ; Wildlife trade is a major pathway for introduction of invasive species worldwide. However, how exactly wildlife trade influences invasion risk, beyond the transportation of individuals to novel areas, remains unknown. We analyze the global trade network of wild-caught birds from 1995 to 2011 as reported by CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora). We found that before the European Union ban on imports of wild-caught birds, declared in 2005, invasion risk was closely associated with numbers of imported birds, diversity of import sources, and degree of network centrality of importer countries. After the ban, fluxes of global bird trade declined sharply. However, new trade routes emerged, primarily toward the Nearctic, Afrotropical, and Indo-Malay regions. Although regional bans can curtail invasion risk globally, to be fully effective and prevent rerouting of trade flows, bans should be global ; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

European Union's ban on trade in wild-caught birds both reduces and redistributes bird invasion risk globally.

Wildlife trade is a major pathway for introduction of invasive species worldwide. However, how exactly wildlife trade influences invasion risk, beyond the transportation of individuals to novel areas, remains unknown. We analyze the global trade network of wild-caught birds from 1995 to 2011 as reported by CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora). We found that before the European Union ban on imports of wild-caught birds, declared in 2005, invasion risk was closely associated with numbers of imported birds, diversity of import sources, and degree of network centrality of importer countries. After the ban, fluxes of global bird trade declined sharply. However, new trade routes emerged, primarily toward the Nearctic, Afrotropical, and Indo-Malay regions. Although regional bans can curtail invasion risk globally, to be fully effective and prevent rerouting of trade flows, bans should be global. ; This study was funded by FEDER Funds through the Operational Competitiveness Factors Program "COMPETE", and by National Funds through the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) within the framework of project "PTDC/AAG-GLO/0463/2014-POCI-01-0145-FEDER-016583." L.R. and C.C. acknowledge support from the FCT through grants SFRH/BPD/93079/2013 and SFRH/BPD/84422/2012, respectively. D.S. is funded by a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Action (H2020-MSCA-IF-2015, grant 706318) and, together with M.B.A., acknowledges the Danish National Research Foundation for support to the Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate (grant DNRF96). P.B. was supported by EDP (Energias de Portugal) Biodiversity Chair. ; We acknowledge support by the CSIC Open Access Publication Initiative through its Unit of Information Resources for Research (URICI). ; Peer reviewed

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused immense social and economic costs worldwide. Most experts endorse the view that the virus has a zoonotic origin with the final spillover being associated with wildlife trade. Besides human consumption, wild animals are also extensively traded as pets. Information on zoonotic diseases has been reported to reduce consumer demand for exotic pets. We conducted a global survey and collected 162 responses from international experts on exotic pet trade (traders, academics, NGOs, enforcement entities) to understand how the legal and illegal trade of exotic pets is expected to be affected by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Our results suggest that legal purchase of exotic pets is perceived as decreasing during the first pandemic wave due to: lower availability of animals for trade, suppliers' inability to reach consumers and social distancing measures. The general perception is that in the future (i.e., next five years), both demand and supply of legally traded exotic pets are expected to either remain unchanged or decrease only temporarily. The consumer demand for illegal exotic pets is also expected to remain unchanged following the outbreak. The top two challenges reported by respondents, when considering the consequences of the pandemic for the exotic pet trade, are inadequate enforcement of national regulations and increased illegal trade. Our results suggest that the negative consequences of a zoonotic outbreak may not dissuade consumers of exotic pets. Worldwide, the transit/storing conditions and lack of health screenings of traded live animals are conducive to spreading diseases. Consumer demand is a key driver of trade, and enforcement of trade regulations will remain challenging, unless factors driving consumer demand are adequately incorporated in problem-solving frameworks. We emphasize the complexity of trade dynamics and the need to go beyond bans on wildlife trade. Stronger law enforcement, implemented along with initiatives dissuading consumption of wild exotic pets, are essential to sustainably satisfy the market demand. ; This study received funding from FEDER Funds through the Operational Competitiveness Factors Program "COMPETE", and by National Funds through the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) within the framework of project 'PTDC/BIA-ECO/30931/2017-POCI-01-0145-FEDER-030931'. Joana Ribeiro acknowledges the support from INTERREG Europe through a post-doc grant within project INTERREG Europe INVALIS -Protecting European Biodiversity from Invasive Alien Species "PGI05271", funded by the European Union and through project UNRAVEL (PTDC/BIA-ECO/0207/2020), financed by National Funds through FCT - Foundation for Science and Technology, IP. Joana Santana was supported by project ALIENTRADE (PTDC/BIA-ECO/30931/2017). Ana Sofia Vaz acknowledges support from FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology through the program Stimulus for Scientific Employment - Individual Support [contract reference 2020.01175. CEECIND]. Luís Reino was supported by Portuguese National Funds through FCT, I.P., under the "Stimulus of Scientific Employment—Individual Support" contract "CEECIND/00445/2017". ; Peer reviewed

International wildlife trade is a major driver of species extinction and biological invasions. Anticipating environmental risks requires inferences about trade patterns, which are shaped by geopolitics. Although the future cannot be predicted, scenarios can help deal with the uncertainty of future geopolitical dynamics. We propose a framework for generating and analyzing scenarios based on four geopolitical storylines, distinguished by combinations of international trade barrier strength and domestic law enforcement degree across countries supplying and demanding wildlife. We then use historical data on bird trade to classify countries into geopolitical profiles and confirm that trade barriers and law enforcement allow predicting bird trade patterns, supporting our scenarios' plausibility and enabling projections for future global bird trade. Our framework can be used to examine the consequences of geopolitical changes for wildlife trade and to advise policy and legislation. Reducing demand for wildlife and ameliorating global inequality are key for curbing trade related risks. ; This study received funding from FEDER Funds through the Operational Competitiveness Factors Program COMPETE and by National Funds through the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) within the framework of project PTDC/BIA-ECO/30931/2017-POCI-01–0145-FEDER-030931. Joana Ribeiro acknowledges the support from INTERREG Europe through a postdoc grant within project INTERREG Europe INVALIS: Protecting European Biodiversity from Invasive Alien Species (grant no. PGI05271), funded by the European Union and through project UNRAVEL (grant no. PTDC/BIA-ECO/0207/2020), financed by National Funds through the FCT. Joana Santana was supported by project ALIENTRADE (grant no. PTDC/ BIA-ECO/30931/2017). César Capinha and Luís Reino were supported by Portuguese National Funds through FCT, public institute (IP), under the Stimulus of Scientific Employment: Individual Support contracts no. CEECIND/02037/2017 and no. CEECIND/00445/2017, respectively ...

Ecological monitoring programmes are designed to detect and measure changes in biodiversity and ecosystems. In the case of biological invasions, they can contribute to anticipating risks and adaptively managing invaders. However, monitoring is often expensive because large amounts of data might be needed to draw inferences. Thus, careful planning is required to ensure that monitoring goals are realistically achieved. Species distribution models (SDM s) can provide estimates of suitable areas to invasion. Predictions from these models can be applied as inputs in optimization strategies seeking to identify the optimal extent of the networks of areas required for monitoring risk of invasion under current and future environmental conditions. A hierarchical framework is proposed herein that combines SDM s, scenario analysis and cost analyses to improve invasion assessments at regional and local scales. We illustrate the framework with Acacia dealbata Link. (Silver‐wattle) in northern Portugal. The framework is general and applicable to any species. We defined two types of monitoring networks focusing either on the regional‐scale management of an invasion, or management focus within and around protected areas. For each one of these two schemes, we designed a hierarchical framework of spatial prioritization using different information layers (e.g. SDM s, habitat connectivity, protected areas). We compared the performance of each monitoring scheme against 100 randomly generated models. In our case study, we found that protected areas will be increasingly exposed to invasion by A. dealbata due to climate change. Moreover, connectivity between suitable areas for A. dealbata is predicted to increase. Monitoring networks that we identify were more effective in detecting new invasions and less costly to management than randomly generated models. The most cost‐efficient monitoring schemes require 18% less effort than the average networks across all of the 100 tested options. Synthesis and applications . The proposed framework achieves cost‐effective monitoring networks, enabling the interactive exploration of different solutions and the combination of quantitative information on network performance with orientations that are rarely incorporated in a decision support system. The framework brings invasion monitoring closer to European legislation and management needs while ensuring adaptability under rapid climate and environmental change.

Identifying the key factors driving invasion processes is crucial for designing and implementing appropriate management strategies. In fact, the importance of (model-based) prevention and early detection was highlighted in the recent European Union regulation on Invasive Alien Species. Models based on abundance estimates for different age/size classes would represent a significant improvement relative to the more usual models based only on species' occurrence data. Here, we evaluate the relative contribution of different environmental drivers to the spatial patterns of abundance of several height classes (or life-stages) of invasive tree populations at the regional scale, using a data-driven hierarchical modelling approach. A framework for modelling life-stages to obtain spatial projections of their potential occurrence or abundance has not been formalized before. We used Acacia dealbata (Silver-wattle) as a test species in northwest of Portugal, a heavily invaded region, and applied a multimodel inference to test the importance of various environmental drivers in explaining the abundance patterns of five plant height classes in local landscape mosaics. The ensemble of height classes is considered here as a proxy for population dynamics, life-stages and age of adult trees. In this test with A. dealbata, we used detailed field data on population height structure and calibrated an independent model for each height class. We found evidence to support our hypothesis that the distribution of height classes is mostly influenced by distinct factors operating at different scales. The spatial projections which resulted from several height class models provide an overview of population structure and invasion dynamics considering various life-stages, that is widely used in biodiversity and invasion research. The approach proposed here provides a framework to guide forest management to deal more effectively with plant invasions. It allows to test the effects of key invasion factors (depending on the focal species and on data availability) and supports the spatial identification of suitable areas for invasive species' occurrence while also accounting for the structural complexity of invasive species populations, thereby anticipating future invasion dynamics. The approach thus constitutes a step forward for establishing management actions at appropriate spatial scales and for focusing on earlier stages of invasion and their respective driving factors (regeneration niche), thereby enhancing the efficiency of control actions on major forest invaders.

Demand for models in biodiversity assessments is rising, but which models are adequate for the task? We propose a set of best-practice standards and detailed guidelines enabling scoring of studies based on species distribution models for use in biodiversity assessments. We reviewed and scored 400 modeling studies over the past 20 years using the proposed standards and guidelines. We detected low model adequacy overall, but with a marked tendency of improvement over time in model building and, to a lesser degree, in biological data and model evaluation. We argue that implementation of agreed-upon standards for models in biodiversity assessments would promote transparency and repeatability, eventually leading to higher quality of the models and the inferences used in assessments. We encourage broad community participation toward the expansion and ongoing development of the proposed standards and guidelines. ; publishedVersion ; Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.

Climate change is expected to have strong social-ecological implications, with global but especially regional and local challenges. To assess the climatic vulnerability of a given territory, it is necessary to evaluate its exposure to climate change and its adaptive capacity. This study describes the development of an Action Plan for Adapting to Climate Change in the Tâmega and Sousa Region, a mountainous inter-municipal community in the North of Portugal. The goals were to identify the main impacts of climate change on water resources, agriculture, forests, biodiversity, and socioeconomic sectors, as well as to develop a plan, merging local and scientific knowledge through a transdisciplinary lens. This study describes an approach that combines modelling methods, applied in the different sectors, and participatory methods, based on the analysis of the perceptions of local actors. Results indicate that the target region will experience a generalized increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation, which will negatively impact all studied social-ecological dimensions. Overall, local business and institutional agents perceive the primary and tourism sectors as the most vulnerable in the region. The described framework demonstrates the engagement process between relevant scientific experts and local practitioners, as well as how it is critical to understand the impacts of climate change and to support the co-design of an adaptation plan, which in turn can guide political and economic decision-making towards effective implementation of the plan. In addition, the difficulties and challenges encountered during this process are discussed to support future plans and strategies for local adaptation.

Forests across the world stand at a crossroads where climate and land-use changes are shaping their future. Despite demonstrations of political will and global efforts, forest loss, fragmentation, and degradation continue unabated. No clear evidence exists to suggest that these initiatives are working. A key reason for this apparent ineffectiveness could lie in the failure to recognize the agency of all stakeholders involved. Landscapes do not happen. We shape them. Forest transitions are social and behavioral before they are ecological. Decision makers need to integrate better representations of people's agency in their mental models. A possible pathway to overcome this barrier involves eliciting mental models behind policy decisions to allow better representation of human agency, changing perspectives to better understand divergent points of view, and refining strategies through explicit theories of change. Games can help decision makers in all of these tasks. ; ISSN:2590-3322

Forests across the world stand at a crossroads where climate and land-use changes are shaping their future. Despite demonstrations of political will and global efforts, forest loss, fragmentation, and degradation continue unabated. No clear evidence exists to suggest that these initiatives are working. A key reason for this apparent ineffectiveness could lie in the failure to recognize the agency of all stakeholders involved. Landscapes do not happen. We shape them. Forest transitions are social and behavioral before they are ecological. Decision makers need to integrate better representations of people?s agency in their mental models. A possible pathway to overcome this barrier involves eliciting mental models behind policy decisions to allow better representation of human agency, changing perspectives to better understand divergent points of view, and refining strategies through explicit theories of change. Games can help decision makers in all of these tasks.

Forests across the world stand at a crossroads where climate and land-use changes are shaping their future. Despite demonstrations of political will and global efforts, forest loss, fragmentation, and degradation continue unabated. No clear evidence exists to suggest that these initiatives are working. A key reason for this apparent ineffectiveness could lie in the failure to recognize the agency of all stakeholders involved. Landscapes do not happen. We shape them. Forest transitions are social and behavioral before they are ecological. Decision makers need to integrate better representations of people's agency in their mental models. A possible pathway to overcome this barrier involves eliciting mental models behind policy decisions to allow better representation of human agency, changing perspectives to better understand divergent points of view, and refining strategies through explicit theories of change. Games can help decision makers in all of these tasks.