Suchergebnisse

We analyze the interaction between fiscal consolidations and private sector deleveraging in an economy inside a monetary union. Pre-existing long-term collateralized private debt - a core ingredient of the deleveraging process - plays a critical role in shaping fiscal multipliers. By buffering the short-run fall in debtors' spending capacity, long-run private debt reduces the shortrun multipliers of aggressive (large and/or fast) consolidations. However, absent credibility concerns, aggressive consolidations raise the intensity and length of private deleveraging, causing higher output losses over the medium-run. In terms of discounted output losses and welfare, this latter effect dominates, so that larger and faster consolidations are relatively costlier than smaller and more gradual ones. Also, in this environment, alternative budgetary instruments generate sizable differences in terms of their incidence on private deleveraging dynamics and, hence, on their overall output costs of fiscal consolidations. ; The ADEMU Working Paper Series is being supported by the European Commission Horizon 2020 European Union funding for Research & Innovation, grant agreement No 649396.

We provide a general equilibrium framework for analyzing the effects of supply and demand side policies, and the potential synergies between them, in an asymmetric monetary union that faces a liquidity trap and a slow deleveraging process in its 'periphery'. We find that the joint implementation of pro-competition structural reforms in the periphery, a fiscal expansion in the 'core', and forward guidance about the three policies: forward guidance re-inforces the expansionary effects of country-specific policies, and the latter in turn improve the effectiveness of forward guidance. ; The ADEMU Working Paper Series is being supported by the European Commission Horizon 2020 European Union funding for Research & Innovation, grant agreement No 649396.

La puesta en marcha, durante la crisis, de un conjunto amplio de medidas tanto a nivel europeo como nacional ha permitido corregir una parte sustancial de los desequilibrios que la economía española había acumulado durante la anterior fase expansiva y los primeros compases de la crisis, lo que a su vez ayuda a explicar la fortaleza de la recuperación. No obstante, desde que se iniciara la actual fase de recuperación, la persistencia de niveles elevados de endeudamiento público, en un contexto en el que el crecimiento potencial permanece en cotas moderadas, hace que la economía sea todavía vulnerable ante posibles nuevas perturbaciones.