Suchergebnisse

This monograph examines the strategic importance of Egypt for the United States by exploring Egypt's role in the Arab-Israeli peace process, its geographical role (providing air and naval access) for U.S. military assets heading to the Persian Gulf, and joint training programs. With so much at stake in the Middle East, the idea of "losing" Egypt as a strategic ally would be a significant setback for the United States. The Egyptian revolution of early 2011 was welcomed by U.S. officials because the protestors wanted democratic government which conformed to U.S. ideals, and the institution that would shepherd the transition, the Egyptian military, had close ties with the United States. To bolster the U.S.-Egyptian relationship and help keep Egypt on the democratic path, the monograph recommends that U.S. military aid should not be cut, economic aid should be increased, and U.S. administration officials should not oppose congressional conditions tying aid to democratic norms because it signals U.S. support for democracy. The United States should continue to speak out for free and fair elections and other international norms, but should avoid commentating on the role of religion and Islamic law in the Egyptian Constitution. Helping the Egyptian military deal with the extremist threat in the Sinai, which the United States has already offered, should also be continued. The U.S. Army should continue to advocate for military-to-military contacts, encourage their Egyptian counterparts to continue to attend U.S. professional military educational institutions, engage with Egyptian counterparts on regional threat assessments, and advocate for a reactivation of the Bright Star exercises. What U.S. Army officials and officers should do is avoid getting into discussions with Egyptian military officers about Egyptian domestic politics, and drop any interest they may have in convincing Egypt to opt for a "more nimble" force because Egyptian defense officials would see it as an effort to weaken the Egyptian military. ; "April 2013." ; Includes bibliographical references (pages 42-48). ; Egypt's importance to U.S. strategic goals in the region -- The challenge of dealing with different centers of power -- The new regime's foreign and security policies -- Egyptian political scenarios and U.S. strategic interests -- Recommendations for the U.S. Army. ; This monograph examines the strategic importance of Egypt for the United States by exploring Egypt's role in the Arab-Israeli peace process, its geographical role (providing air and naval access) for U.S. military assets heading to the Persian Gulf, and joint training programs. With so much at stake in the Middle East, the idea of "losing" Egypt as a strategic ally would be a significant setback for the United States. The Egyptian revolution of early 2011 was welcomed by U.S. officials because the protestors wanted democratic government which conformed to U.S. ideals, and the institution that would shepherd the transition, the Egyptian military, had close ties with the United States. To bolster the U.S.-Egyptian relationship and help keep Egypt on the democratic path, the monograph recommends that U.S. military aid should not be cut, economic aid should be increased, and U.S. administration officials should not oppose congressional conditions tying aid to democratic norms because it signals U.S. support for democracy. The United States should continue to speak out for free and fair elections and other international norms, but should avoid commentating on the role of religion and Islamic law in the Egyptian Constitution. Helping the Egyptian military deal with the extremist threat in the Sinai, which the United States has already offered, should also be continued. The U.S. Army should continue to advocate for military-to-military contacts, encourage their Egyptian counterparts to continue to attend U.S. professional military educational institutions, engage with Egyptian counterparts on regional threat assessments, and advocate for a reactivation of the Bright Star exercises. What U.S. Army officials and officers should do is avoid getting into discussions with Egyptian military officers about Egyptian domestic politics, and drop any interest they may have in convincing Egypt to opt for a "more nimble" force because Egyptian defense officials would see it as an effort to weaken the Egyptian military. ; Mode of access: Internet.

The subject of U.S. grand strategy has been getting increasing attention from the policy and academic communities. However, too often the debate suffers from being too reductionist, limiting America's choices to worldwide hegemony or narrow isolation. There is a wide spectrum of choices before Washington that lie "somewhere in the middle." Frequently, not enough thought is given to how such alternative strategies should be designed and implemented. The future cannot be known, and earlier predictions of American decline have proven to be premature. However, there is a shift in wealth and power to the extent that America may not be able to hold on to its position as an unrivaled unipolar superpower. Therefore, it is worth thinking about how the United States could shape and adjust to the changing landscape around it. What is more, there are a number of interlocking factors that mean such a shift would make sense: transnational problems needing collaborative efforts, the military advantages of defenders, the reluctance of states to engage in unbridled competition, and "hegemony fatigue" among the American people. Alternative strategies that are smaller than global hegemony, but bigger than narrow isolationism, would be defined by the logic of "concerts" and "balancing," in other words, some mixture of collaboration and competition. Can the United States adjust to a concert-balance grand strategy that made space for other rising powers without sacrificing too much of its forward military presence, without unleashing too much regional instability, and without losing the domestic political will? It is not certain that a cumulative shift to a new grand strategy would necessarily succeed, since other powers might turn down the chance to cooperate. But with soaring budget deficits and national debt, increasing burdens on social security, and possible agonizing choices in the future between guns and butter, it is surely worth a try. ; "April 2013." ; Includes bibliographical references (pages 68-82). ; Introduction -- Part I : the state of strategy -- Part II : no free lunches : dilemmas, trade-offs, and opportunities -- Part III : making it work -- Conclusion. ; The subject of U.S. grand strategy has been getting increasing attention from the policy and academic communities. However, too often the debate suffers from being too reductionist, limiting America's choices to worldwide hegemony or narrow isolation. There is a wide spectrum of choices before Washington that lie "somewhere in the middle." Frequently, not enough thought is given to how such alternative strategies should be designed and implemented. The future cannot be known, and earlier predictions of American decline have proven to be premature. However, there is a shift in wealth and power to the extent that America may not be able to hold on to its position as an unrivaled unipolar superpower. Therefore, it is worth thinking about how the United States could shape and adjust to the changing landscape around it. What is more, there are a number of interlocking factors that mean such a shift would make sense: transnational problems needing collaborative efforts, the military advantages of defenders, the reluctance of states to engage in unbridled competition, and "hegemony fatigue" among the American people. Alternative strategies that are smaller than global hegemony, but bigger than narrow isolationism, would be defined by the logic of "concerts" and "balancing," in other words, some mixture of collaboration and competition. Can the United States adjust to a concert-balance grand strategy that made space for other rising powers without sacrificing too much of its forward military presence, without unleashing too much regional instability, and without losing the domestic political will? It is not certain that a cumulative shift to a new grand strategy would necessarily succeed, since other powers might turn down the chance to cooperate. But with soaring budget deficits and national debt, increasing burdens on social security, and possible agonizing choices in the future between guns and butter, it is surely worth a try. ; Mode of access: Internet.

International criminal networks mainly from Latin America and Africa -- some with links to terrorism -- are turning West Africa into a key global hub for the distribution, wholesaling, and production of illicit drugs. These groups represent an existential threat to democratic governance of already fragile states in the sub-region because they are using narco-corruption to stage coups d'état, hijack elections, and co-opt or buy political power. Besides a spike in drug-related crime, narcotics trafficking is also fraying West Africa's traditional social fabric and creating a public health crisis, with hundreds of thousands of new drug addicts. While the inflow of drug money may seem economically beneficial to West Africa in the short-term, investors will be less inclined to do business in the long-term if the sub-region is unstable. On net, drug trafficking and other illicit trade represent the most serious challenge to human security in the region since resource conflicts rocked several West African countries in the early 1990s. International aid to West Africa's "war on drugs" is only in an initial stage; progress will be have to be measured in decades or even generations, not years and also unfold in parallel with creating alternative sustainable livelihoods and addressing the longer-term challenges of human insecurity, poverty, and underdevelopment. ; "May 2013." ; Includes bibliographical references (pages 64-84). ; Introduction : broad context of drug trafficking in West Africa -- History of drug trafficking in West Africa -- Latin American drug dealers partner with West African criminals -- Structure of West African DTOs -- Global drug trafficking routes via West Africa -- Link to terrorism : alliances between drug traffickers and terrorists -- Impact on good governance -- Impact on society -- Impact on the economy -- Ongoing programs--- the international community and the United States -- Impact of West African drug trafficking on U.S. national interests -- Conclusion : policy recommendations. ; International criminal networks mainly from Latin America and Africa -- some with links to terrorism -- are turning West Africa into a key global hub for the distribution, wholesaling, and production of illicit drugs. These groups represent an existential threat to democratic governance of already fragile states in the sub-region because they are using narco-corruption to stage coups d'état, hijack elections, and co-opt or buy political power. Besides a spike in drug-related crime, narcotics trafficking is also fraying West Africa's traditional social fabric and creating a public health crisis, with hundreds of thousands of new drug addicts. While the inflow of drug money may seem economically beneficial to West Africa in the short-term, investors will be less inclined to do business in the long-term if the sub-region is unstable. On net, drug trafficking and other illicit trade represent the most serious challenge to human security in the region since resource conflicts rocked several West African countries in the early 1990s. International aid to West Africa's "war on drugs" is only in an initial stage; progress will be have to be measured in decades or even generations, not years and also unfold in parallel with creating alternative sustainable livelihoods and addressing the longer-term challenges of human insecurity, poverty, and underdevelopment. ; Mode of access: Internet.

Seismic cultural and political shifts are under way in the Arab Gulf monarchies. The political upheavals and transitions that have swept through the Arab world over the last 2 years have not toppled the Arab Gulf rulers, but did not leave them untouched, either. Rulers of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states face heightened internal and external challenges and uncertainties. Pro-democracy protests and calls are extending from Bahrain to other oil-rich countries of the Arabian Peninsula. The expectations of GCC citizens, particularly the educated youth, are increasingly moving from socio-economic demands to political ones. They are now not only asking for jobs or wage increases, but also for more political participation and accountability. Chief among internal challenges is the resurgence in several GCC countries, particularly Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, of a decades-long sectarian rift between the Sunni regimes and their Shia subjects. The Gulf regimes' already tense relations with Iran have worsened on the basis of alleged Iranian interference inflaming sectarian tensions in Bahrain and across the broader region. ; "June 2013." ; Includes bibliographical references (pages 33-38). ; Introduction -- Precarious stability at home. Increasing calls for democratization -- But the story is still unfinished -- Fear of the rise of political Islam -- Sectarian frictions -- Succession issues -- External threats to GCC stability. A dangerous neighbor : mounting tensions with Iran -- The Iranian threat : nuclear issues and blockade -- Iran : GCC policy -- GCC stability : implications for the United States -- Policy implications and recommendations -- Conclusion. ; Seismic cultural and political shifts are under way in the Arab Gulf monarchies. The political upheavals and transitions that have swept through the Arab world over the last 2 years have not toppled the Arab Gulf rulers, but did not leave them untouched, either. Rulers of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states face heightened internal and external challenges and uncertainties. Pro-democracy protests and calls are extending from Bahrain to other oil-rich countries of the Arabian Peninsula. The expectations of GCC citizens, particularly the educated youth, are increasingly moving from socio-economic demands to political ones. They are now not only asking for jobs or wage increases, but also for more political participation and accountability. Chief among internal challenges is the resurgence in several GCC countries, particularly Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, of a decades-long sectarian rift between the Sunni regimes and their Shia subjects. The Gulf regimes' already tense relations with Iran have worsened on the basis of alleged Iranian interference inflaming sectarian tensions in Bahrain and across the broader region. ; Mode of access: Internet.

In recent years, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has been widely recognized as a more dangerous regional and international terrorist organization than the original al-Qaeda led by Osama bin Laden until his death in 2011. In 2010-11, AQAP was able to present a strong challenge to Yemen's government by capturing and retaining large areas in the southern part of the country. Yemen's new reform President defeated AQAP and recaptured areas under their control in 2012, but the terrorists remain an extremely dangerous force seeking to reassert themselves at this time of transition in Yemen. ; "June 2013." ; Includes bibliographical references (pages 84-105). ; Introduction -- The crisis in Yemeni governance -- The emergence and development of AQAP -- AQAP terrorism efforts directed against the United States -- The issue of drones -- The struggle to reform the Yemeni military and the role of U.S. military assistance -- Conclusion, implications for landpower, and recommendations. ; In recent years, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has been widely recognized as a more dangerous regional and international terrorist organization than the original al-Qaeda led by Osama bin Laden until his death in 2011. In 2010-11, AQAP was able to present a strong challenge to Yemen's government by capturing and retaining large areas in the southern part of the country. Yemen's new reform President defeated AQAP and recaptured areas under their control in 2012, but the terrorists remain an extremely dangerous force seeking to reassert themselves at this time of transition in Yemen. ; Mode of access: Internet.

This monograph provides a timely assessment of the geostrategic significance of Asia-Pacific and offers as a thought-provoking analysis of the U.S. strategic shift toward the region and its implications, with several key points. First, Asia-Pacific, which covers China, Northeast Asia, and Southeast Asia, is a region with complex currents. On the one hand, there is an unabated region-wide drive for economic development that has been pushing Asia-Pacific forward for decades. On the other, this region is troubled with, aside from many other conflicts, unsettled maritime disputes that have the potential to trigger wars between and among Asia-Pacific nations. Second, on top of these mixed currents, China and the United States compete intensely over a wide range of vital interests in this region. For better or for worse, the U.S.-China relationship is becoming a defining factor in the relations among the Asia-Pacific nations. Third, the U.S. strategic shift toward Asia-Pacific is, as President Obama puts it, not a choice but a necessity. Although conflicts elsewhere, especially the ones in the Middle East, continue to draw U.S. attention and consume U.S. foreign policy resources, the United States is turning its focus toward China and Asia-Pacific. Fourth, in the mid-2000s, the United States and China made an unprecedented strategic goodwill exchange and agreed to blaze a new path out of the tragedy that often attends great power transition. Fifth, at this time of U.S. strategic reorientation and military rebalancing toward Asia-Pacific, the most dangerous consideration is that Asia-Pacific nations having disputes with China can misread U.S. strategic intentions and overplay the "U.S. card" to pursue their territorial interests and challenge China. Finally, territorial dispute is becoming an urgent issue in the Asia-Pacific. ; "May 2013." ; Includes bibliographical references. ; Overall assessment -- The changing geostrategic landscape -- China rising. Geostrategic impact of the rising China -- U.S. strategic shift -- U.S.-China contests in Asia-Pacific. The inextricable dilemmas -- The China-Taiwan-U.S. issue -- U.S.-China conflict over the exclusive economic zone -- Great power competition in Northeast Asia. The Russo-Japanese territorial dispute -- The South Korean-Japanese dispute -- The China-Japan dispute -- Winners and losers -- U.S.-China competition in Southeast Asia -- South China Sea disputes -- Concluding remarks. ; This monograph provides a timely assessment of the geostrategic significance of Asia-Pacific and offers as a thought-provoking analysis of the U.S. strategic shift toward the region and its implications, with several key points. First, Asia-Pacific, which covers China, Northeast Asia, and Southeast Asia, is a region with complex currents. On the one hand, there is an unabated region-wide drive for economic development that has been pushing Asia-Pacific forward for decades. On the other, this region is troubled with, aside from many other conflicts, unsettled maritime disputes that have the potential to trigger wars between and among Asia-Pacific nations. Second, on top of these mixed currents, China and the United States compete intensely over a wide range of vital interests in this region. For better or for worse, the U.S.-China relationship is becoming a defining factor in the relations among the Asia-Pacific nations. Third, the U.S. strategic shift toward Asia-Pacific is, as President Obama puts it, not a choice but a necessity. Although conflicts elsewhere, especially the ones in the Middle East, continue to draw U.S. attention and consume U.S. foreign policy resources, the United States is turning its focus toward China and Asia-Pacific. Fourth, in the mid-2000s, the United States and China made an unprecedented strategic goodwill exchange and agreed to blaze a new path out of the tragedy that often attends great power transition. Fifth, at this time of U.S. strategic reorientation and military rebalancing toward Asia-Pacific, the most dangerous consideration is that Asia-Pacific nations having disputes with China can misread U.S. strategic intentions and overplay the "U.S. card" to pursue their territorial interests and challenge China. Finally, territorial dispute is becoming an urgent issue in the Asia-Pacific. ; Mode of access: Internet.

For the first time in its modern history the entire Balkan Peninsula has the opportunity to co-exist under one security and developmental umbrella combining NATO and the European Union (EU). Unfortunately, European and American leaders have been unable to complete such a unique historic vision, while the progress of several Western Balkan countries continues to be undermined by a plethora of political, social, economic, ethnic, and national disputes. This monograph focuses on the escalating security challenges facing the Western Balkans, assesses the shortcomings and deficiencies of current international engagement, considers future prospects for U.S. military involvement, and offers recommendations for curtailing conflict and promoting the region's international institutional integration. In particular, to prevent the future deployment of U.S. forces, more comprehensive strategic intelligence gathering is needed, together with the identification of local and foreign political actors promoting instability, early warning signals regarding impending conflicts, and a commitment to incorporate all countries in the region into NATO and the EU. ; "May 2013." ; Includes bibliographical references (pages 166-191). ; I. Introduction : uncertain futures -- II. Serbian aspirations -- III. Bosniak national revival -- IV. Regional Albanianism -- V. Macedonian impasse -- VI. International deficiencies -- VII. West Balkan conflicts : causes and consequences -- VIII. Policy recommendations. ; For the first time in its modern history the entire Balkan Peninsula has the opportunity to co-exist under one security and developmental umbrella combining NATO and the European Union (EU). Unfortunately, European and American leaders have been unable to complete such a unique historic vision, while the progress of several Western Balkan countries continues to be undermined by a plethora of political, social, economic, ethnic, and national disputes. This monograph focuses on the escalating security challenges facing the Western Balkans, assesses the shortcomings and deficiencies of current international engagement, considers future prospects for U.S. military involvement, and offers recommendations for curtailing conflict and promoting the region's international institutional integration. In particular, to prevent the future deployment of U.S. forces, more comprehensive strategic intelligence gathering is needed, together with the identification of local and foreign political actors promoting instability, early warning signals regarding impending conflicts, and a commitment to incorporate all countries in the region into NATO and the EU. ; Mode of access: Internet.

Military leaders at many levels have used strategic planning in various ways to position their organizations to respond to the demands of the current situation while simultaneously preparing to meet future challenges. This paper will first describe the Chairman's statutory responsibilities and strategic challenges, because this affects leaders and the focus of the strategic planning system. The paper then briefly examines how the Joint Strategic Planning System (JSPS) changed in five major ways during the time period of 1990 to 2012 before describing in greater detail the key products and processes of the current system. The paper then goes on to summarize the more significant ways each Chairman used this system during the past 2 decades to produce specific planning products, which is part of their formal leadership legacy. During this time the Chairmen were Generals Powell (1989-93), Shalikashvili (1993-97), Shelton (1997-2001), Myers (2001-05), Pace (2005-07), and Admiral Mullen (2007-11). General Dempsey's current strategic planning focus, since he became Chairman in October 2011, is also summarized. This leadership focus and concluding thoughts provide broad insights into how senior leaders have used the strategic planning system to respond to internal and external challenges. These leadership and management insights are related to the importance of strategic vision, planning system and process characteristics, decisionmaking styles, and organizational change. ; "June 2013." ; Includes bibliographical references (pages 29-34). ; Chairman's responsibilities -- Joint Strategic Planning System -- Joint Strategic Planning System's key components -- Chairman's legacy -- Insights and conclusion. ; Military leaders at many levels have used strategic planning in various ways to position their organizations to respond to the demands of the current situation while simultaneously preparing to meet future challenges. This paper will first describe the Chairman's statutory responsibilities and strategic challenges, because this affects leaders and the focus of the strategic planning system. The paper then briefly examines how the Joint Strategic Planning System (JSPS) changed in five major ways during the time period of 1990 to 2012 before describing in greater detail the key products and processes of the current system. The paper then goes on to summarize the more significant ways each Chairman used this system during the past 2 decades to produce specific planning products, which is part of their formal leadership legacy. During this time the Chairmen were Generals Powell (1989-93), Shalikashvili (1993-97), Shelton (1997-2001), Myers (2001-05), Pace (2005-07), and Admiral Mullen (2007-11). General Dempsey's current strategic planning focus, since he became Chairman in October 2011, is also summarized. This leadership focus and concluding thoughts provide broad insights into how senior leaders have used the strategic planning system to respond to internal and external challenges. These leadership and management insights are related to the importance of strategic vision, planning system and process characteristics, decisionmaking styles, and organizational change. ; Mode of access: Internet.

This Letort Paper covers U.S. military interventions in civil conflicts since the end of the Cold War. It defines intervention as the use of military force to achieve a specific objective (i.e., deliver humanitarian aid, support revolutionaries or insurgents, protect a threatened population, etc.) and focuses on the phase of the intervention in which kinetic operations occurred. The analysis considers five conflicts in which the United States intervened: Somalia (1992-93), Haiti (1994), Bosnia (1995), Kosovo (1999), and Libya (2011). It also reviews two crises in which Washington might have intervened but chose not to: Rwanda (1994) and Syria (2011-12). The author examines each case using five broad analytical questions: 1. Could the intervention have achieved its objective at an acceptable cost in blood and treasure? 2. What policy considerations prompted the intervention? 3. How did the United States intervene? 4. Was the intervention followed by a Phase 4 stability operation? and, 5. Did Washington have a viable exit strategy? From analysis of these cases, the author derives lessons that may guide policy makers in deciding when, where, and how to intervene in the future. ; "June 2013." ; Includes bibliographical references (pages 76-86). ; Introduction -- Military intervention in U.S. history. Era of gunboat diplomacy -- The Cold War -- The post-Cold War era -- Analytical framework. Somalia -- Haiti -- Bosnia -- Kosovo -- Libya -- Noninterventions. Rwanda -- Syria -- Patterns and possibilities. Where to intervene -- When to intervene -- How to intervene -- Follow-on missions -- Exit strategy -- Balancing considerations -- Implications for U.S. land power -- Conclusion. ; This Letort Paper covers U.S. military interventions in civil conflicts since the end of the Cold War. It defines intervention as the use of military force to achieve a specific objective (i.e., deliver humanitarian aid, support revolutionaries or insurgents, protect a threatened population, etc.) and focuses on the phase of the intervention in which kinetic operations occurred. The analysis considers five conflicts in which the United States intervened: Somalia (1992-93), Haiti (1994), Bosnia (1995), Kosovo (1999), and Libya (2011). It also reviews two crises in which Washington might have intervened but chose not to: Rwanda (1994) and Syria (2011-12). The author examines each case using five broad analytical questions: 1. Could the intervention have achieved its objective at an acceptable cost in blood and treasure? 2. What policy considerations prompted the intervention? 3. How did the United States intervene? 4. Was the intervention followed by a Phase 4 stability operation? and, 5. Did Washington have a viable exit strategy? From analysis of these cases, the author derives lessons that may guide policy makers in deciding when, where, and how to intervene in the future. ; Mode of access: Internet.

Two key long-term energy trends are shifting the strategic balance between the United States and China, the world's superpower rivals in the 21st century: first, a domestic boom in U.S. shale oil and gas is dramatically boosting America's energy security; second, the frenetic and successful search for hydrocarbons in Africa is making it an increasingly crucial element in China's energy diversification strategy. America's increasing energy security and China's increased dependence on energy imports from Africa and the Middle East until well past 2040 despite its own shale discoveries will make Beijing's own increasing energy insecurity be felt even more acutely, pushing the People's Liberation Army to accelerate adoption of a "two ocean" military strategy that includes an enduring presence in the Indian Ocean as well as the Pacific Ocean ; Format not distributed to depository libraries ; "December 2013." ; Includes bibliographical references ; Introduction. Reasons for optimism about Africa oil and gas potential -- Good governance in the African energy sector and avoidance of the resource curse -- I. In the beginning : African oil and continental drift theory -- II. A geological map of Africa. Major country-level trends in Africa's geological sub-regions -- III. African oil and gas production and reserves. Major African producers in a larger global context -- Africa boosting oil and gas reserves -- Africa's competitive landscape becomes more crowded : Asian NOCs, frontier independents join traditional supermajors -- IV. Globalization of the world natural gas market and Africa's role in it -- The present : Africa's natural gas production and reserves focused on North and West Africa -- East Africa and East Asia : a new "golden age" for global trade in natural gas? -- Future wild card : Africa's unconventional gas supplies -- V. Is Africa still relevant to U.S. energy security? -- VI. Africa and China's energy security : an increasingly important source of diversified supply. China's success in marginal or politically sensitive oil fields -- The absolute and relative scale of China's investment in Africa's upstream oil and gas industry -- Is China's investment in Africa's oil and gas sectors good or bad? -- Does Africa benefit from Chinese energy investment? -- China and rest of Asia : biggest winners from African energy expansion -- VII. African energy and China's emerging two-ocean military strategy ; Two key long-term energy trends are shifting the strategic balance between the United States and China, the world's superpower rivals in the 21st century: first, a domestic boom in U.S. shale oil and gas is dramatically boosting America's energy security; second, the frenetic and successful search for hydrocarbons in Africa is making it an increasingly crucial element in China's energy diversification strategy. America's increasing energy security and China's increased dependence on energy imports from Africa and the Middle East until well past 2040 despite its own shale discoveries will make Beijing's own increasing energy insecurity be felt even more acutely, pushing the People's Liberation Army to accelerate adoption of a "two ocean" military strategy that includes an enduring presence in the Indian Ocean as well as the Pacific Ocean ; Mode of access: Internet.

Contemporary Mexican cartel use of car bombs began in mid-July 2010 and has since escalated. Given the proximity to the United States, some literally within miles of the border, the car bombings, with about 20 incidents identified over the last 2 1/2 years, should be of interest to local, state, and federal U.S. law enforcement, the U.S. Army, and other governmental institutions which are providing increasing support to Mexican federal agencies. An historical overview and analysis of cartel car bomb use in Mexico provides context, insights, and lessons learned stemming from the Medellin and Cali cartel car bombing campaigns. In order to generate insights into future cartel car bombings in Mexico, the identification of such potentials offers a glimpse into cartel "enemy intent," a possible form of actionable strategic intelligence. For Mexico, steady and both slowly and quickly increasing car bomb use trajectories may exist. The prognosis for decreasing car bomb deployment appears unlikely. If cartel car bombs were to be deployed on U.S. soil or against U.S. personnel and facilities in Mexico, such as our consulates, we could expect that a pattern of indications and warnings (I&W) would be evident prior to such an attack(s). In that case, I&W would be drawn from precursor events such as grenade and improvised explosive device (IED) attacks (or attempted attacks) on our personnel and facilities and on evolving cartel car bomb deployment patterns in Mexico. The authors conclude with initial recommendations for U.S. Army and defense community support to the military and the federal, state, and local police agencies of the Mexican state, and the various U.S. federal, state, and local police agencies operating near the U.S.-Mexican border. The extent of support in intelligence, organization, training, and equipment is highlighted, as well as the extent that these forms of support should be implemented to counter cartel vehicle-borne IEDs and overall cartel threats ; "August 2013." ; Includes bibliographical references (pages 40-53) ; Car bombings and lessons learned in Colombia -- Early car bombings in Mexico -- Recent indications and warnings for resumed car bomb use in Mexico -- Contemporary car bombings in Mexico -- Analysis and future car bombing potentials in Mexico and the United States -- Conclusions and recommendations ; Contemporary Mexican cartel use of car bombs began in mid-July 2010 and has since escalated. Given the proximity to the United States, some literally within miles of the border, the car bombings, with about 20 incidents identified over the last 2 1/2 years, should be of interest to local, state, and federal U.S. law enforcement, the U.S. Army, and other governmental institutions which are providing increasing support to Mexican federal agencies. An historical overview and analysis of cartel car bomb use in Mexico provides context, insights, and lessons learned stemming from the Medellin and Cali cartel car bombing campaigns. In order to generate insights into future cartel car bombings in Mexico, the identification of such potentials offers a glimpse into cartel "enemy intent," a possible form of actionable strategic intelligence. For Mexico, steady and both slowly and quickly increasing car bomb use trajectories may exist. The prognosis for decreasing car bomb deployment appears unlikely. If cartel car bombs were to be deployed on U.S. soil or against U.S. personnel and facilities in Mexico, such as our consulates, we could expect that a pattern of indications and warnings (I&W) would be evident prior to such an attack(s). In that case, I&W would be drawn from precursor events such as grenade and improvised explosive device (IED) attacks (or attempted attacks) on our personnel and facilities and on evolving cartel car bomb deployment patterns in Mexico. The authors conclude with initial recommendations for U.S. Army and defense community support to the military and the federal, state, and local police agencies of the Mexican state, and the various U.S. federal, state, and local police agencies operating near the U.S.-Mexican border. The extent of support in intelligence, organization, training, and equipment is highlighted, as well as the extent that these forms of support should be implemented to counter cartel vehicle-borne IEDs and overall cartel threats ; Mode of access: Internet.