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The NIESR's monthly GDP series is an innovative feature; most GDP estimates are published at an annual, or quarterly frequency at best. For purposes of dating the business cycle the availability of this series is an asset, unexploited until this paper. The paper applies a version of the standard business (or 'classical') cycle dating algorithm to the data, after light smoothing to remove outliers. Three classical cycles are detected in the period between the early 1970s and 2002, with turning points which are close to (but usually precede) classical cycle dating which does not benefit from the availability of monthly GDP, and instead relies on a 'coincident' indicator methodology. In addition the turning points of a deviation cycle are identified.

This article considers the economic case for UK membership of EMU. Traditional optimum currency area (OCA) analysis provides only a weak case for membership: the UK is located among the periphery and not in the core. Considerations of the possible costs of isolation (the risks of trade discrimination and the dangers of a volatile currency) together with some pertinent qualifications of OCA analysis (the possible endogeneity of the OCA criteria) serve to strengthen the case for joining. Whilst it is not overwhelming, the final verdict is positive.