The forecasting potential of complex models
In: Policy sciences: integrating knowledge and practice to advance human dignity, Band 13, Heft 3, S. 247-267
ISSN: 1573-0891
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In: Policy sciences: integrating knowledge and practice to advance human dignity, Band 13, Heft 3, S. 247-267
ISSN: 1573-0891
In: Policy sciences: integrating knowledge and practice to advance human dignity ; the journal of the Society of Policy Scientists, Band 13, Heft 3, S. 247-267
ISSN: 0032-2687
The nature & use of "complex" models for forecasting & policy simulation are analyzed on theoretical & empirical-performance grounds. While the accuracy of complex models in forecasting trends in such fields as economic & energy is undistinguished, their special virtues -- preserving counterintuitive results & representing subsystem interdependence -- could be used to better advantage than current practice permits. Suggestions for such improvements, through more diversified models, microprocess models in addition to the typical macro models, a mix of mechanically & judgmentally operated models, & the modeling of policy response, are reviewed. 26 References. Modified HA.
In: Vierteljahresberichte / Forschungsinstitut der Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Heft 90, S. 303-393
ISSN: 0015-7910, 0936-451X
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