Suchergebnisse

Existence of outliers and structural breaks having mutually unknown nature, in time series data, offer challenges to data analysts in model identification, estimation and validation. Detection of these outliers has been an important area of research in time series since long. To analyze the impact of these structural breaks and outliers on model identification, estimation and their inferential analysis, we use two data generating processes: MA(1) and ARMA(1,1). The performance of the test statistics for detecting additive outlier(AO), innovative outlier(IO), level shift(LS) and transient change(TC) is investigated using simulation strategy through power of a test, empirical level of significance, empirical critical values, misspecification frequencies and sampling distribution of estimators for the two models. The empirical critical values are found higher than the theoretical cut-off points, empirical power of the test statistics is not satisfactory for small sample size, large cut-off points and large model coefficient. We have explored confusion between LS, AO, TC and IO at different critical values(c) by varying sample size. We have also collected empirical evidence from time series data for Pakistan using 3-stage iterative procedure to detect multiple outliers and structural breaks. We find that neglecting shocks lead to wrong identification, biased estimation and excess kurtosis.
JEL Classification Codes: C15, C18, C63, C32, C87, C51, C52, C82
AMS Classification Codes: 62, 65, 91, DI, 62-08, 62J20, 00A72, 91-08, 91-10, 91-11 62P20, 91B82, 91B84, 62M07, 62M09, 62M10, 62M15, 62M20

Over the last four decades world economy has experienced
several wide swings in energy prices. These swings have very serious
repercussions for countries of Asian, in general, and South Asian
regions, in particular; the latter having tremendous economic potential.
Rapidly growing economies like India, China and Pakistan will face
serious energy crisis if they do not plan well for future needs. Energy
is one of the most critical inputs to several variety of production
function. And we have very limited ability to replace it by other means
in the short run, without having serious setback to our GDP. Energy
conservation is a topic that has been discussed over a long period of
time. Energy conservation is not a local issue but a global one,
affecting the strategic planning and policy making of the governments
worldwide. Energy conservation is proving as a catalyst for
globalisation and international trade of energy.

Education affects health not because of the knowledge and
practices one can learn at school, but rather it shapes individuals life
and can alter the characteristics of an individual to be healthier.
Measurement of health is an abstract concept and health itself is
affected by a number of factors. This study aims at exploring whether
there is any relation in education, gender, and health for Pakistan.
Exploratory data analysis and ordinal logistic regression are used here
to assess relationship between health, education and other
socio-economic factors. It is evident that individuals with higher
education level tend to have better health status than a person with
lower levels of education. There is also evidence of gender being an
important determinant of health in Pakistan. The variation in health
status of individuals is studied with reference to gender, culture,
occupations, and social economic status. This study provides a useful
piece of information for the policy-makers in health and education
sectors. The data used in this study was collected by Pakistan and
Medical Research Council under National Health Survey of Pakistan [NHSP
(1990-1994)]. JEL classification: L00, L20, C21 Keywords: Education,
Self-reported Health, Ordered Logit, Health Conditions, Pseudo
R2

The aim of the study is to analyze the ways women are empowered through information and communication technology (ICT) and fostering the process of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Women in developing countries are facing economic and social hardships and have limited access to ICT, which in turn translate into their lack of skills, lower literacy rate and restricted social engagement. Therefore, present study explores the role of ICT on women empowerment in 51 developing countries by conducting panel data modeling over the period of 2000-17. The study finds that ICT has significant and positive contribution on female labor force participation rate by Generalized Method of Moment (GMM). Control variables like GDP growth and government expenditure on education have positive and statistically significant role to enhance women empowerment. Findings of the study imply that the ICT has an impact on women empowerment and which helps in fostering the process of achieving SDGs 2030.

Background: The UK has experienced significant immigration from Eastern Europe following European Union (EU) expansion in 2004, which raises the importance of equity and equality for the recent immigrants. Previous research on ethnic health inequalities focused on established minority ethnic groups, whereas Eastern European migrants are a growing, but relatively under-researched group. We aimed to conduct a systematic scoping review of published literature on Eastern European migrants' use and experiences of UK health services. Methods: An initial search of nine databases produced 5997 relevant publications. Removing duplicates reduced the figure to 2198. Title and abstract screening left 73 publications. Full-text screening narrowed this down further to 10 articles, with three more from these publications to leave 13 included publications. We assessed publications for quality, extracted data and undertook a narrative synthesis. Results: The included publications most commonly studied sexual health and family planning services. For Eastern European migrants in the UK, the most commonly cited barriers to accessing and using healthcare were limited understanding of how the system worked and language difficulties. It was also common for migrants to return to their home country to a healthcare system they were familiar with, free from language barriers. Familial and social networks were valuable for patients with a limited command of English in the absence of suitable and available interpreting and translating services. Conclusions: To address limited understanding of the healthcare system and the English language, the NHS could produce information in all the Eastern European languages about how it operates. Adding nationality to the Electronic Patient Report Form (EPRF) may reveal the demand for interpretation and translation services. Eastern European migrants need to be encouraged to register with GPs to reduce A&E attendance for primary care conditions. Many of the issues raised will be relevant to other European countries since the long-term outcomes from Brexit are likely to influence the level of Eastern European and non-Eastern European migration across the continent, not just the UK.

The global economic crisis in 2007–2008 resulted in a tremendous food price increase that is likely to have adversely affected the food security and nutritional status in many developing countries. Understanding how nutritional intakes may have changed as a result of the food price crisis is important, especially for Pakistan, the country under scrutiny which, despite of being a large producer of staple food, suffers from severe problems of undernourishment. We used two survey rounds, 2005–2006 and 2010–2011, to investigate how calorie and macronutrient intakes have evolved. The analysis was carried out with the use of a time varying model and is enriched by an in-depth investigation for different quantiles. The results show that food security deteriorated because of the food price crisis. In the light of this outcome, policy implications are discussed.

The UK has experienced significant recent immigration from Eastern Europe following European Union (EU) expansion in 2004. Lincolnshire is a predominantly rural county in the East Midlands region of the UK with a large and recently arrived Eastern European population requiring healthcare, including urgent ambulance care. The Equality Act 2010 requires public bodies such as health services to provide access to high quality healthcare, while the Equality Delivery System seeks to ensure that UK NHS organisations comply with the legislation. This study aimed to explore the perceptions and experiences of ambulance staff attending Eastern European patients in Lincolnshire. Qualitative semi-structured interviews were conducted with 15 ambulance staff at locations across Lincolnshire. Purposive and maximum variation sampling ensured that participants were knowledgeable about Eastern European patients' use of ambulance care and covered a range of demographic characteristics. The data were analysed using framework analysis. Difficulty in accessing professional interpreters meant that some patients relied instead on family members. Some Eastern European patients brought back foreign medication from their country of origin, which ambulance staff could not understand. It was common for patients to not be registered with GPs because they were temporarily resident, did not understand how the UK healthcare system worked or preferred to go to their home country for treatment. By not registering with GPs, patients were sometimes transported to the Emergency Department for primary care conditions. The practical recommendations for service delivery improvements may be valuable for service providers and could be incorporated into future protocols. These include: having a glossary of key terms in Eastern European languages; simple packs explaining how and when to use the ambulance service translated into different languages where necessary; encouraging patients to register with GPs; and face-to-face meetings where the ambulance service inform the Eastern European communities about how to use their services.