Suchergebnisse

The article retraces how the Soviet Union and the United States tried to establish a partnership in the wake of Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait. The international community strongly condemned the invasion, and the two superpowers chose to cooperate in finding a solution to the crisis. The Soviet leadership was persistent in searching for a peaceful settlement. But the Bush administration, seeking to lay the grounds for U.S. dominance in a "new world order," opted for the use of force. Moscow opposed this, but cautiously, trying to persuade Iraq to concede, while avoiding an aggravation of relations with the U.S. This policy went nowhere, and the international crisis over the Iraqi invasion catalyzed the post-Cold-War U.S.-centric world order.

Political transition theory has clear indicators for successful democratization, including the two-turnover test in elections, rule of law, press freedom and institutional reform. However, the distinction between system change and regime change remains ambiguous. After rapid political transitions from authoritarian to democratic systems, old guard elites seek to recapture power and protect their wealth in countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines. The authors characterize this as a process of dynastic regime recovery, with elite networks seeking to control discursive spaces as part of a broader strategy to regain political power and legitimacy. Political distortions persist in rapid transitions to democracy, and this article examines the ways in which interlocking elites from the Suharto era strategically adapted to Indonesia's competitive multi-party system. The authors gathered data from 21 interviews with the Suharto family and their associates, as well as observations from an exclusive commemorative event celebrating the centenary of Suharto's birth in June 2021. The centenary celebration was a network-led revanchist effort to promote a positive narrative about Suharto's presidency, as a constituent part of a complex regime recovery strategy. The 2022 election of Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. in the Philippines indicates that there are opportunities for the rehabilitation of formerly discredited political dynasties. The recovery of the Suharto family legacy, business networks and political party coalitions has yet to ensure institutional recapture or electoral victory, but it is too soon to write a definitive political obituary. (Contemp Southeast Asia/GIGA)

A lonely but unbroken North Korea stands up against the South Korean-U.S. alliance, playing diplomatic overtures in between crises and skillfully using contradictions between other actors in Northeast Asia. Yet although North Korea has nuclear weapons, the military balance on and around the Korean Peninsula is not developing to Pyongyang's advantage. This puts North Korea's security at risk, especially due to the unpredictability of Seoul's future policy. In terms of Kenneth Waltz's structural realism, North Korea's ability to balance the mounting strategic risks internally by mobilizing its own resources is extremely limited. This leaves the option of external balancing through alliance with strong military powers. The theory of structural realism remains relevant and helps to better understand the ongoing rapprochement between Pyongyang and Moscow.