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IntroductionThe recent availability of efficacious prevention interventions among stable couples offers new opportunities for reducing HIV incidence in sub‐Saharan Africa. Understanding the dynamics of HIV incidence among stable couples is critical to inform HIV prevention strategy across sub‐Saharan Africa.MethodsWe quantified the sources of HIV incidence arising among stable couples in sub‐Saharan Africa using a cohort‐type mathematical model parameterized by nationally representative data. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were incorporated.ResultsHIV incidence arising among stable concordant HIV‐negative couples contribute each year, on average, 29.4% of total HIV incidence; of those, 22.5% (range: 11.1%–39.8%) are infections acquired by one of the partners from sources external to the couple, less than 1% are infections acquired by both partners from external sources within a year and 6.8% (range: 3.6%–11.6%) are transmissions to the uninfected partner in the couple in less than a year after the other partner acquired the infection from an external source. The mean contribution of stable HIV sero‐discordant couples to total HIV incidence is 30.4%, with most of those, 29.7% (range: 9.1%–47.9%), being due to HIV transmissions from the infected to the uninfected partner within the couple. The remaining incidence, 40.2% (range: 23.7%–64.6%), occurs among persons not in stable couples.ConclusionsClose to two‐thirds of total HIV incidence in sub‐Saharan Africa occur among stable couples; however, only half of this incidence is attributed to HIV transmissions from the infected to the uninfected partner in the couple. The remaining incidence is acquired through extra‐partner sex. Substantial reductions in HIV incidence can be achieved only through a prevention approach that targets all modes of HIV exposure among stable couples and among individuals not in stable couples.

AbstractIntroductionEmerging HIV epidemics have been documented among people who inject drugs (PWID) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This study estimates the HIV incidence among PWID due to sharing needles/syringes in MENA. It also delineates injecting drug use role as a driver of the epidemic in the population, and estimates impact of interventions.MethodsA mathematical model of HIV transmission among PWID was applied in seven MENA countries with sufficient and recent epidemiological data and HIV prevalence ≥1% among PWID. Estimations of incident and/or prevalent infections among PWID, ex‐PWID and sexual partners of infected current and ex‐PWID were conducted.ResultsThe estimated HIV incidence rate for 2017 among PWID ranged between 0.7% per person‐year (ppy) in Tunisia and 7.8% ppy in Pakistan, with Libya being an outlier (24.8% ppy). The estimated number of annual new infections was lowest in Tunisia (n = 79) and Morocco (n = 99), and highest in Iran and Pakistan (approximately n = 6700 each). In addition, 20 to 2208 and 5 to 837 new annual infections were estimated across the different countries among sexual partners of PWID and ex‐PWID respectively. Since epidemic emergence, the number of total ever acquired incident infections across countries was 706 to 90,015 among PWID, 99 to 18,244 among sexual partners of PWID, and 16 to 4360 among sexual partners of ex‐PWID. The estimated number of prevalent infections across countries was 341 to 23,279 among PWID, 119 to 16,540 among ex‐PWID, 67 to 10,752 among sexual partners of PWID, and 12 to 2863 among sexual partners of ex‐PWID. Increasing antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage to the global target of 81% – factoring in ART adherence and current coverage – would avert about half of new infections among PWID and their sexual partners. Combining ART with harm reduction could avert over 90% and 70% of new infections among PWID and their sexual partners respectively.ConclusionsThere is considerable HIV incidence among PWID in MENA. Of all new infections ultimately due to injecting drug use, about 75% are among PWID and the rest among sexual partners. Of all prevalent infections ultimately attributed to injecting drug use as epidemic driver, about half are among PWID, 30% among ex‐PWID and 20% among sexual partners of PWID and ex‐PWID. These findings call for scale‐up of services for PWID, including harm reduction as well as testing and treatment services.