Suchergebnisse

Between 1988 and 2004, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative grew to become the largest international health effort in history, operating in every country of the world. An estimated 10 million health workers and volunteers have been engaged in implementing the necessary polio supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) on a recurring basis, and at least 35,000 well-trained workers have been conducting polio surveillance. A combination of task simplification, technological innovations and adaptation of strategies to fit local circumstances has allowed the Initiative to use a wide range of workers and volunteers, from both inside and outside the health sector, to deliver the polio vaccine during SIAs and to monitor progress in virtually every area of every country, regardless of the health infrastructure, conflict, geography and/or culture. This approach has required sustained political advocacy and mass community mobilization, together with strong management and supervisory processes. Non-monetary incentives, reimbursement of costs and substantial technical assistance have been essential. Given the unique features of eradication programmes in general, and polio eradication in particular, the implications of this approach for the broader health system must continue to be studied if it is to be replicated for the delivery and monitoring of other interventions.

After the global eradication of wild polioviruses, the risk of paralytic poliomyelitis from polioviruses will still exist and require active management. Possible reintroductions of poliovirus that can spread rapidly in unprotected populations present challenges to policymakers. For example, at least one outbreak will likely occur due to circulation of a neurovirulent vaccine‐derived poliovirus after discontinuation of oral poliovirus vaccine and also could possibly result from the escape of poliovirus from a laboratory or vaccine production facility or from an intentional act. In addition, continued vaccination with oral poliovirus vaccines would result in the continued occurrence of vaccine‐associated paralytic poliomyelitis. The likelihood and impacts of reintroductions in the form of poliomyelitis outbreaks depend on the policy decisions and on the size and characteristics of the vulnerable population, which change over time. A plan for managing these risks must begin with an attempt to characterize and quantify them as a function of time. This article attempts to comprehensively characterize the risks, synthesize the existing data available for modeling them, and present quantitative risk estimates that can provide a starting point for informing policy decisions.

The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision‐making processes.