Suchergebnisse

In this sophisticated yet accessible analysis of the open economies of Sub-Saharan Africa, Jean-Paul Azam analyses international trade, exchange rate issues, and longer-term growth, taking due account of the distinctive features of African economies. In particular, he examines the informal as well as the formal institutional frameworks which prevail in different African countries and which affect their macroeconomic behaviour. Key issues explored include tariffs and quotas, membership of the CFA Zone, and currency convertibility or inconvertibility, as well as smuggling, corruption, parallel markets in goods and currencies, ethnic diversity and redistribution. Case studies of important macroeconomic events are used to establish basic stylized facts from which the theory emerges, and special attention is paid to the consequences of macroeconomic events for the poor, via the food market or traditional redistribution mechanisms

Abstract
This short paper focuses on econometric issues raised by intentional government interventions aimed at influencing some politically sensitive outcomes. It first presents an example where multiple regression analysis provides quite a misleading diagnosis about foreign aid and immigration that can be rectified by using a causal analysis based on instrumental variables. It then offers a simple theoretical framework to bring out the basic information asymmetries affecting the game between the econometrician and the policy maker and their implications for the choice of instruments in a near-identification strategy. This approach is shown to provide a strong political judgement in the case of the armed violence between local governments and "Maoist" insurgents in eight states of India. Proper econometric analysis shows that the initiative of the insurgency cannot be blamed on the rebels.

This paper tries to reconcile the observed fact that suicide-terrorists have a relatively high education level with rationality. It brings out the conditions under which potential students choose to acquire some education in a rational-choice model where this yields a non-zero probability of blowing up the resulting human capital in a terrorist attack. The comparative-statics of the rational expectations equilibrium of this model demonstrate how economic development, on the one hand, and repression, on the other hand, might reduce terrorism under some parameter restrictions. Adapted from the source document.

A model is presented where the ruler may arm the producers, in order to convince them that he will not expropriate them ex post. This sets an upper limit on the tax rate, not higher than their probability of losing their income, should a war occur. The relevance of this analysis is illustrated by discussing various case studies, involving post‐conflict situations. Some variants of the model are presented for highlighting some implementation problems, related to asymmetric information or to positive initial endowments of weapons or non‐produced wealth, which may lead to war in equilibrium.

Vers le changement de siècle, Jean-Jacques Laffont s'est impliqué dans l'analyse des problèmes spécifiques posés par les entreprises régulées dans les pays en développement et leur réforme. Il a tiré les conséquences des coûts sociaux élevés des fonds publics, dus à une taxation inefficace. Bien que l'aide extérieure atténue ce problème dans une certaine mesure, il n'est pas tout à fait négligeable pour ces pays. Des problèmes particuliers apparaissent aussi à cause de la pénurie de fonctionnaires bien formés, de la capture de l'État, de la corruption largement répandue, et de l'incapacité des États à s'engager de façon crédible. La contrainte de service universel peut alors mener à des solutions spécifiques dans un tel cadre. Il a aussi utilisé sa théorie des incitations pour aborder certains problèmes liés aux réformes, comme la réduction des sureffectifs dans le secteur public, et pour développer une théorie positive de la privatisation des monopoles naturels. Il a prolongé ses analyses théoriques par un certain nombre d'applications, y compris des tests économétriques, des études de cas et des simulations.

A simple model is used to discuss the political economy of the emergence of relative poverty as a foundation for redistribution policy in rich countries, as opposed to the dominant concept of absolute poverty, which prevails in the rest of the world. This issue is analyzed in connection with that of the development of civil society and its role relative to the state in fighting poverty.