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THIS ARTICLE EXAMINES THE PERCEPTIONS OF BOTH SUCCESSFUL AND UNSUCCESSFUL CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATES ABOUT THEIR EVALUATION OF THEIR CHANCES AND OF THE FACTORS MOST IMPORTANT TO ELECTORAL CHANCES. INCUMBENTS WERE FOUND TO UNDERESTIMATE THEIR CHANCES FOR SUCCESS AND TO STRESS THE IMPORTANCE OF ISSUES, WHILE CHALLENGERS OVERESTIMATED THEIR CHANCES AND STRESSED EXTERNAL FACTORS AS IMPORTANT.

FOUR PROGRAMS ADMINISTERED BY HEW'S OFFICE FOR CIVIL RIGHTS PROVIDE A CONTEXT IN WHICH TO TEST THE SABATIER-MAZMANIAN IMPLEMENTATION MODEL. PROGRAM SUCCESS IS MEASURED BY USING AGGREGATED DATA. VARIABLES IMPORTANT IN PROMOTING SUCCESSFUL POLICY IMPLEMENTATION ARE THE CLARITY OF STANDARDS USED TO MEASURE CHANGE AND COMMITMENT BY AGENCY OFFICIALS.

EMPLOYEES METHODOLOGICAL FUNCTIONS SUCH AS REGRESSION ANALYSIS TO TEST HYPOTHESES ABOUT THE CONDITIONS UNDER WHICH BLACK CANDIDATES ARE ELECTED TO PUBLIC OFFICE IN THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. DATA CONCERNING COUNTY AND MUNICIPAL OFFICEHOLDERS PROVIDES THE MEDIUM FOR PROBING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BLACK POPULATION CONCENTRATIONS AND BLACK OFFICEHOLDERS, AND THE EFFECTIVENESS OF BLACK REPRESENTATIVES.

A LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS OF A 30-YEAR PERIOD SHOWS THAT THE MORE HETEROGENEOUS A STATE'S POPULATION, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS TO HAVE SIMULTANEOUSLY A DEMOCRATIC AND A REPUBLICAN SENATOR. A PATH ANALYSIS LINKING CONSTITUENCY, COMPETITIVENESS, PARTY, AND ROLL-CALL VARIABLES IS TESTED ON DATA FROM THE 1970 CENSUS AND THE 93RD CONGRESS. GEOGRAPHIC HETEROGENEITY IS RELATED TO DIVERSITY IN THE REELECTION CONSTITUENCIES OF SENATORS REPRESENTING THE SAME STATE. REELECTION CONSTITUENCY IS, IN TURN, RELATED TO PARTY CONTROL OF A STATE'S SENATE SEATS. WHILE REELECTION CONSTITUENCY HAS A GREATER DIRECT EFFECT THAN GEOGRAPHIC CONSTITUENCY ON ROLL-CALL BEHAVIOR, PARTY HAS THE LARGEST DIRECT EFFECT. CONSTITUENCY CHARACTERISTICS HAVE A LARGER EFFECT THAN PARTY WHEN DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS ARE COMBINED.

IT HAS BEEN SUGGESTED THAT DIFFERENCES IN VOTER RECOGNITION OF CANDIDATES MAY CAUSE VARIATIONS IN PARTISAN DEFECTION RATES, WHICH COULD ACCOUNT FOR CHAMBER DIFFERENCES IN REELECTION RATES. THIS DEFECTION HYPOTHESIS IS TESTED HERE USING SURVEY DATA FROM 1956-1980. THE RATES AT WHICH PARTY IDENTIFIERS DEFECT FROM THEIR PARTY'S SENATE AND HOUSE NOMINEES ARE COMPARED. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN FOR ALL SENATE RACES PARALLES THAT FOR ALL HOUSE RACES, THERE HAVE BEEN DIFFERENCES IN THE ANTICIPATED DIRECTION SINCE 1970. DEFECTION PATTERNS IN RECENT SENATE ELECTIONS HAVE NOT, HOWEVER, BEEN LESS PRO-INCUMBENT, WHICH IS WHAT THE HIGH PROPORTION OF DEFEATS AMONG INCUMBENT SENATORS WOULD LEAD US TO EXPECT.

THE AUTHORS EXTEND THEIR PREVIOUS RESEARCH ON WOMEN IN OPEN SEAT ELECTIONS BY EXAMINING THE PERFORMANCE OF WOMEN WHO COMPETE IN SPECIAL ELECTIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES. FEMALE CANDIDATE EMERGENCE IN SPECIAL HOUSE CONTESTS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN IN REGULAR OPEN SEATS. USING MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION MODELS, THE AUTHORS UNCOVER NO BIAS AGAINST WOMEN IN SPECIAL ELECTIONS. OVERALL, THE PERFORMANCE OF WOMEN IN SPECIAL ELECTIONS AND OPEN SEATS INDICATES THAT DISRUPTIONS OF THE POLITICAL STATUS QUO BY A SUDDEN VACANCY CREATES OPPORTUNITIES THAT WOMEN EXPLOIT WITH EFFECTIVENESS, ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL OF FEMALE CANDIDATE EMERGENCE LIMITS THE GROWTH OF DESCRIPTIVE FEMALE REPRESENTATION.

THE AUTHORS EXAMINE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE COURT AND HEW'S OFFICE FOR CIVIL RIGHTS TO ILLUSTRATE THE EFFECTS OF LEGAL EFFORTS TO GENERATE MORE VIGOROUS AGENCY ENFORCEMENT. OPPONENTS OF RACIAL AND SEX DISCRIMINATION IN PUBLIC SCHOOLS WON A SERIES OF SUITS AGAINST OCR AFTER IT HAD CEASED TO EFFECTIVELY IMPLEMENT ANTI-DISCRIMINATION LEGISLATION. OCR'S DISCRETIONARY POWERS HAVE BEEN CURTAILED.